[nmnita]

Unfortunately we now have our first confirmed case of the virus here. It was bound to hit sooner or later. Let's hope we do not become another WA, CA or NY with the spread getting out of control. The case is in Pine Bluff. For those who do not know where Pine Bluff is, it south of Little Rock. Though I am one of those who think the sickness is being over blown please everyone do all you can to protect yourself. I am not going to stop my life and sit at home worrying, but I am using extra care.

[Hollynla]

I'm also in the court of thinking this is WAYYY overblown. Coronavirus has been around forever and different strains come out each year similar to the flu. I think many here and everywhere else have it, had it, or know someone who probably did, but many cases were so mild, they were written off as a cold or something that didn't require a doctor visit. My family doesn't go to the dr. unless something seems to be severe. Contrary to what the media tells you, most cases of coronavirus are mild.

In the past few weeks, here in the US, the only people who have been tested are people who show severe symptoms. Therefore, we don't really know all who had it, and the mortality rate would be far lower had we counted all cases. This will blow over like the flu, like the swine flu, etc.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by Hollynla

I'm also in the court of thinking this is WAYYY overblown. Coronavirus has been around forever and different strains come out each year similar to the flu. I think many here and everywhere else have it, had it, or know someone who probably did, but many cases were so mild, they were written off as a cold or something that didn't require a doctor visit. My family doesn't go to the dr. unless something seems to be severe. Contrary to what the media tells you, most cases of coronavirus are mild.

In the past few weeks, here in the US, the only people who have been tested are people who show severe symptoms. Therefore, we don't really know all who had it, and the mortality rate would be far lower had we counted all cases. This will blow over like the flu, like the swine flu, etc.

I think I heard yesterday they have about 4 or 5 more here, but again, it is were the flu they would have 100 or so by now. I give this until May or maybe even June at the lasted until it is just another thing pretty much in the past. I just read on another thread someone said he is guessing there will be as many as 5K deaths here in the USA. Obviously he is just picking and number out.

We all need to use sensible precautions, take care of ourselves, etc but not isolate ourselves. I have even heard some suggest we stay home from church and we all know the number of events that have been shut down. When one decides to close, or discontinue all others feel the need to follow.

[mgforshort]

I find it interesting to check where are the most infected. I think it has to do with tourism and trade. Italy, with millions of tourists, is the worst. Then Seattle, Los Angeles, New York, these are major tourist destinations and also trade centers.

For a long time Arkansas was not on the radar, same here in Butte County in Northern California, because we are not a tourist destination. We have few cases now, but I hope that with our relative isolation the damage could be limited, if there is such a thing - one death is too many. Same thing for Arkansas, Alabama, North Dakota.

My point is, sometimes / often it pays to live away from major population centers.

[Hollynla]

I'm surprised we haven't heard about more cases in New Orleans and south Louisiana in general with Mardi Gras happening last month. Mardi Gras day was 2/25 but parades happened for weeks prior. Lots of people from all over the place travel to NOLA for this, people in close quarters, etc.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by mgforshort

I find it interesting to check where are the most infected. I think it has to do with tourism and trade. Italy, with millions of tourists, is the worst. Then Seattle, Los Angeles, New York, these are major tourist destinations and also trade centers.

For a long time Arkansas was not on the radar, same here in Butte County in Northern California, because we are not a tourist destination. We have few cases now, but I hope that with our relative isolation the damage could be limited, if there is such a thing - one death is too many. Same thing for Arkansas, Alabama, North Dakota.

My point is, sometimes / often it pays to live away from major population centers.

Interesting analogy. I think you are onto something and it makes good sense.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by Hollynla

I'm surprised we haven't heard about more cases in New Orleans and south Louisiana in general with Mardi Gras happening last month. Mardi Gras day was 2/25 but parades happened for weeks prior. Lots of people from all over the place travel to NOLA for this, people in close quarters, etc.

The paper today mentioned the first case was a gentleman who had been to Mard Gras.

[mgforshort]

Originally Posted by Hollynla

I'm surprised we haven't heard about more cases in New Orleans and south Louisiana in general with Mardi Gras happening last month. Mardi Gras day was 2/25 but parades happened for weeks prior. Lots of people from all over the place travel to NOLA for this, people in close quarters, etc.

My father told me you can't get sick when you are stone drunk. If Dear Wife let's me I want to try that.

[TRex2]

Originally Posted by Hollynla

I'm surprised we haven't heard about more cases in New Orleans and south Louisiana in general with Mardi Gras happening last month. Mardi Gras day was 2/25 but parades happened for weeks prior. Lots of people from all over the place travel to NOLA for this, people in close quarters, etc.

Originally Posted by mgforshort

My father told me you can't get sick when you are stone drunk. If Dear Wife let's me I want to try that.

Alcohol kills virus?

In all seriousness, this virus spreads like the common cold, but for those who are over 60, smoke, have high blood pressure, or other risk factors, it is about 34 times more likely to kill you than the flu. 5K deaths in the US? We will wish. Mathematically (my specialty), this is more likely to kill a million of us, but it will do it over a dozen or so months, so it will not be like Capt Trips (The Stand) or anything like that. In a dozen months, the US generally has about 3 million or so deaths, so this will simply be a serious uptick.

It is dangerous, but the hype and panic are also way out of proportion to the risk.

[TRex2]

I have a modification to make on my previous prediction, on the number of cases and deaths we are likely to see from this CoViD-19 virus.

First, an explanation. I am mostly an amateur engineer and mathematician. While I can read papers written by epidemiologists and virologists, I am not one of them. Here is what stymies me: in in 2009 the H1N1, a novel flu virus swept the nation. Something like 12 million of us got vaccinated, and about 12 million of us got the flu. Why didn't we all get it?

I don't know, but that is the source of my current error.

If, like the H1N1 virus, this virus is only capable of infecting 10% of the population, then it is reasonable to assume that the death toll will also be around 10% of my previous predictions. So the number will probably be closer to 100K deaths (and probably a million in the hospital) over a period of a dozen months. Which dozen, that is also a good question. It could be from May 2020 to May 2021. Or, if this virus takes a hiatus, as many do, in the summer, it could be Sept to Sept.

Either way, as I pointed out before, in any normal year, 3 million (actually it is more like 2.5 million) of us die anyway, most from age related causes, so mathematically, an extra 100K is a small uptick. Still, it will often be those who we thought were healthy, so it will take an emotional toll.

I still stand by this statement:
The coronavirus outbreak is dangerous, but the hype and panic are also way out of proportion to the risk.