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The one child policy has not helped their future. So many women babies were aborted and drowned in rural areas because parents wanted a boy for their one child(unless you paid penalties) that they have a huge inequality of men to women ratio. On top of that their population is aging quite a bit.
So by 2050 China is going to be a very old country in terms of average age and the USA will still be a pretty happening place due to it's birthrate.
China has a lot of problems still with infrastructure, health care(which is nonexistent in most cases) and environmental damage. And then also their government is corrupt and I think at some point there will be another revolution.
I found the best way to really find out about China is to read motorcycle trip reports from riders around the world that have ridden tens of thousands of miles around the country and taken thousands of photos as well as writing about their travels. My understanding of China is about a 1000 times better reading those reports rather than what the lamestream media cranks out.
The one child policy has not helped their future. So many women babies were aborted and drowned in rural areas because parents wanted a boy for their one child(unless you paid penalties) that they have a huge inequality of men to women ratio. On top of that their population is aging quite a bit.
So by 2050 China is going to be a very old country in terms of average age and the USA will still be a pretty happening place due to it's birthrate.
China has a lot of problems still with infrastructure, health care(which is nonexistent in most cases) and environmental damage. And then also their government is corrupt and I think at some point there will be another revolution.
I found the best way to really find out about China is to read motorcycle trip reports from riders around the world that have ridden tens of thousands of miles around the country and taken thousands of photos as well as writing about their travels. My understanding of China is about a 1000 times better reading those reports rather than what the lamestream media cranks out.
China is having a construction bubble, companies regularly cook the books, and it has been argued that their whole economy is a bubble. I dont think they are going to completely crash, but they are going to have increasing problems and lower growth rates in the future.
If you're going to put something as ridiculous as a 200 year projection, then not including India is pretty ridiculous.
Actually, the entire idea of a 200 year projection is ridiculous. Just looking back 200 years ago and you'll see that Germany didn't even exist, Japan was an isolated backwards feudal nation, the US was about to fight for its continued survival against Britain, and the Spanish colonies were just then fighting for their independence.
The one child policy has not helped their future. So many women babies were aborted and drowned in rural areas because parents wanted a boy for their one child(unless you paid penalties) that they have a huge inequality of men to women ratio. On top of that their population is aging quite a bit.
So by 2050 China is going to be a very old country in terms of average age and the USA will still be a pretty happening place due to it's birthrate.
China has a lot of problems still with infrastructure, health care(which is nonexistent in most cases) and environmental damage. And then also their government is corrupt and I think at some point there will be another revolution.
I found the best way to really find out about China is to read motorcycle trip reports from riders around the world that have ridden tens of thousands of miles around the country and taken thousands of photos as well as writing about their travels. My understanding of China is about a 1000 times better reading those reports rather than what the lamestream media cranks out.
Great point! Our media is all in love with China right now here in the States, showing the gleaming cities on the east coast of the country that have really boomed and modernized, making it look like the whole country is like that now. The reality is that outside of those cities many parts of China are still extremely poor and undeveloped. I think they have something like 2/3rds of the nation's population living in poverty. They can ignore that and boost the east coast all they want, but eventually that poverty in the rest of the nation is going to come back to haunt them.
I think that people who insist on putting a "V" between them will make a war inevitable.
The United States has 5-times the population and productivity of Great Britain. How come we don't have to think of "USA V. UK" and be in competition with them for the past 200 years? Why can we develop cooperatively with some people and not with others?
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanneroo
Demographically China is in deep doo doo.
The one child policy has not helped their future. So many women babies were aborted and drowned in rural areas because parents wanted a boy for their one child(unless you paid penalties) that they have a huge inequality of men to women ratio. On top of that their population is aging quite a bit.
So by 2050 China is going to be a very old country in terms of average age and the USA will still be a pretty happening place due to it's birthrate.
China has a lot of problems still with infrastructure, health care(which is nonexistent in most cases) and environmental damage. And then also their government is corrupt and I think at some point there will be another revolution.
I found the best way to really find out about China is to read motorcycle trip reports from riders around the world that have ridden tens of thousands of miles around the country and taken thousands of photos as well as writing about their travels. My understanding of China is about a 1000 times better reading those reports rather than what the lamestream media cranks out.
None of your points have any significant impact, even though they might reflect a truth. The current sex-ratio for persons under 15 is, for China 1.13 and for USA 1.05. If China discontinues their social policy of discouraging girls survival, those will even out in 15 years, since all future births in China will be the same ratio as in the USA.
When you consider that it costs $400K to raise an American child to the age of economic productivity, China will be avoiding a huge cost by not needing to raise so many children. It will cost the USA $30-trillion just to deal with our unproductive kids, not even counting those in Juvie, and we don't even have jobs for a lot of their parents, so I don't think a smaller number of children will hurt China all that much.
The USA has destroyed about 90% of its forest, and most cities can't even make their water drinkable with modern treatment facilities, so we're not all that far ahead of China, environmentally. Have you noticed there is only one industrial country in the world in which health care is "nonexistent" for a large segment of the people: USA.
I've been across China, on rickety buses on gravel roads, but not on motorcycle. I love the country, I love the people. I hope they don't make the same mistakes America made, but I fear they will.
Last edited by jtur88; 07-21-2011 at 10:07 AM..
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Hm...
