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As X14Freak already pointed out, many experts have very different opinions, so you should not just pick one of them.
My parents have held the same kind of job through the years, and they did not run any business etc. So their boost of income reflects the growth of Chinese economy well.
30 years ago, a teacher made 60 yuan a month. Now it is normally 5000 base plus other bonuses.
Boost of income is a double edged sword -
with the increase of income you get inflation that may be reactive, so that as your salary stops growing inflation still increases and your purchasing power goes down.
You get an overheated economy that increases unsecured borrowing and debt (and we do see that in China via the overbuilding craze and current abandoned structures), and then later the default on those debts.
You get income disparity and the resulting social strife in China at just the incredible number of people making a very poor salary vs. those in the city making excellent salaries.
And for China itself, who's schtik for foreign trade was cheap labor, an increase in labor costs naturally means that countries will start doing business with cheaper labor countries like India, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.
All this is addressable by China - increase interest rates to slow down the economy, invest in education, etc. But I still predict tough times ahead.
Boost of income is a double edged sword -
with the increase of income you get inflation that may be reactive, so that as your salary stops growing inflation still increases and your purchasing power goes down.
You get an overheated economy that increases unsecured borrowing and debt (and we do see that in China via the overbuilding craze and current abandoned structures), and then later the default on those debts.
You get income disparity and the resulting social strife in China at just the incredible number of people making a very poor salary vs. those in the city making excellent salaries.
And for China itself, who's schtik for foreign trade was cheap labor, an increase in labor costs naturally means that countries will start doing business with cheaper labor countries like India, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.
All this is addressable by China - increase interest rates to slow down the economy, invest in education, etc. But I still predict tough times ahead.
I was not arguing about the effect of boost of income on economy. I stated it reflects the growth of Chinese economy.
The poor people certainly live much better than before too. Now the MINIMUM wage in most provinces is above 1200 yuan per month. Most workers have 2000+ starting salary. When I was in high school, that was my parents' salary.
The ultimate goal of economic development is to make people live better. And China will not rely on cheap labor forever. For example, China exports some high tech too, and invests in other countries heavily.
Last edited by Bettafish; 12-23-2016 at 11:03 AM..
Boost of income is a double edged sword -
with the increase of income you get inflation that may be reactive, so that as your salary stops growing inflation still increases and your purchasing power goes down.
You get an overheated economy that increases unsecured borrowing and debt (and we do see that in China via the overbuilding craze and current abandoned structures), and then later the default on those debts.
You get income disparity and the resulting social strife in China at just the incredible number of people making a very poor salary vs. those in the city making excellent salaries.
And for China itself, who's schtik for foreign trade was cheap labor, an increase in labor costs naturally means that countries will start doing business with cheaper labor countries like India, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.
All this is addressable by China - increase interest rates to slow down the economy, invest in education, etc. But I still predict tough times ahead.
China seems to be targeting lower growth rates to clamp down on debt. China is also trying to shift away from manufacturing to services. How successful it will be at the shift is the bigger question. They have been successful in the past on clamping down on debt. A lot of people forget the horrible NPL (non performing loans) crisis they had in the late 90s-early 2000s when NPLs made up close to 30% of the debt in China. I also don't think comparing China to Japan in the 90s is an accurate comparison. One reason why Japan languished for so long was because the government is so focused on achieving consensus and were unwilling to let certain companies fail. China on the other hand is authoritarian and has taken absolutely brutal, and quite frankly unacceptable, actions on certain companies and Xi Jinping has far more power than any prime minister in Japan (who have until recently been quite powerless to the massive bureaucracy and MITI).
Another article about China and its past NPL issue from an analyst at the Federal Reserve of SF: Banking | Why We Shouldn
It's because of the elephant in the room , the pervasive caste system in India , but hush hush, officially India is a "parliamentary democracy" and China "a communist dictatorship"...
True. Culture and religion ARE the elephants in the room that no one speaks openly when comparing China's performance/prospects to Indias.
China is historically very fortunate to not have acquired the curses of Hinduism and Islam. And that senseless, infantile, wasteful caste system.
I always find it funny how people call the British Empire a democracy when millions of its subjects in places like India were denied any voice in its governance. It's even funnier when the British demand democracy in Hong Kong when Hong Kong was never a democracy even under British rule.
THe island was democratic. outside the island is fair game. Britain's policy was make the world england.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex Woo
the disgusting caste system ,and the religion make people think poor is just a punish.
You're right. This describes the middle kingdom and its hukou system perfectly. Looks like red china's bringing theirs back with the princelings. Rich chinese look at the poor and dark people like they are peasants and field workers.
THe island was democratic. outside the island is fair game. Britain's policy was make the world england.
You're right. This describes the middle kingdom and its hukou system perfectly. Looks like red china's bringing theirs back with the princelings. Rich chinese look at the poor and dark people like they are peasants and field workers.
got jesus?
Chinese people do not really think poor people are born to be inferior. The hukou system may be unfair, but no one considers superior/inferior by nature.
In fact many rich Chinese are farmers' children.
THe island was democratic. outside the island is fair game. Britain's policy was make the world england.
You're right. This describes the middle kingdom and its hukou system perfectly. Looks like red china's bringing theirs back with the princelings. Rich chinese look at the poor and dark people like they are peasants and field workers.
got jesus?
Name me a single former non-white settler British colony with a sizable population that managed to achieve industrialization. HK and Singapore are city states and they don't count. Can you name me a single one that managed to achieve what the former Japanese colonies of Taiwan (pop. 23 million) and South Korea (pop. 50 million) have achieved?
An important reason is India us a democracy while China is not.
Let's be honest, that's the key reason. When China wants to build a brand new high speed railway, it is done in a matter of four years, for India it would probably take 24 years if ever because "democracy" needs to please everyone.
This is probably why the new rail connection for taipei's airport took 20 years to build. For a city like Shanghai, 14 new subways were completed during the same time, in addition to a bunch of highways, tunnels and parks as well as world class high speed rail connection to many cities.
I am not saying democracy is bad, but it makes things 5 times slow and 3 times more expensive. I hope India enjoy their democracy and open air toilet.
Because one laughs at the air quality in China, it is equally bad in India.
Name me a single former non-white settler British colony with a sizable population that managed to achieve industrialization. HK and Singapore are city states and they don't count. Can you name me a single one that managed to achieve what the former Japanese colonies of Taiwan (pop. 23 million) and South Korea (pop. 50 million) have achieved?
For each successful colony case from the UK, there are 10 complete failures.
Name me a single former non-white settler British colony with a sizable population that managed to achieve industrialization. HK and Singapore are city states and they don't count. Can you name me a single one that managed to achieve what the former Japanese colonies of Taiwan (pop. 23 million) and South Korea (pop. 50 million) have achieved?
You're speaking english
Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli
An important reason is India us a democracy while China is not.
Let's be honest, that's the key reason. When China wants to build a brand new high speed railway, it is done in a matter of four years, for India it would probably take 24 years if ever because "democracy" needs to please everyone.
This is probably why the new rail connection for taipei's airport took 20 years to build. For a city like Shanghai, 14 new subways were completed during the same time, in addition to a bunch of highways, tunnels and parks as well as world class high speed rail connection to many cities.
I am not saying democracy is bad, but it makes things 5 times slow and 3 times more expensive. I hope India enjoy their democracy and open air toilet.
Because one laughs at the air quality in China, it is equally bad in India.
must be nice living in democratic canada, a former UK colony, with clean air
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