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ROC evolved much like South Korea did, as a US-appointed dictatorship tat would be as cruel as it needed to be to keep the combusts out. Same story in Indonesia and Philippinrs. Lots of US development aid as part of the deal.
ROC evolved much like South Korea did, as a US-appointed dictatorship tat would be as cruel as it needed to be to keep the combusts out. Same story in Indonesia and Philippinrs. Lots of US development aid as part of the deal.
well, in a sense, the US was on the side of the communist of china at that time before the korean war. We sent diplomats and used our influence to slow the KMT's advance. We also have the media painted a picture of chiang as a dictator, while praising mao and the communists as hard working leaders for the people of china
ironically, it was to soviets that aided the KMT by returning all the lands in the northeast to chiang and in term made the communists fought hard to win it back.
so what happened had the KMT kept control of the mainland? well, it will be the "chiang" dynasty, as chiang's son continued to rule until late in the century. What's funny is that chiang's son married to a russian woman. We would have mainland ruled by russian chinese mix.
but they did, who helped Sun established the army? the soviets. There is no republic of china and the successful northern conquest without the soviets helping to establish the army school in guangzhou. Chiang was the principal and most of the CCP or KMT generals graduated from that school.
and no, yuan is not the first president, the republic did not really exist at that time. I mean, if you insist on this, then that version of "republic" ended when the qing dynasty "re-established" after yuan's death
The CCP or KMT's role on establishing Sun's republic of china was similar actually, but it was the soviets that helped the most.
I also want to point out, that chiang was not always the leader of the KMT, and there were a sizable number of the KMT members that are also communists and support the CPC. During the northern expedition, the KMT broke into two factions with one in wuhan and one in nanjing. The one in wuhan supports the CPC and works with the CPC.
That is the version of the Republic mentioned in all the history books and textbooks I have read and studied. Yuan was elected the first president of ROC but quickly disbanded the Chinese Parliament, outlawed the Guomindang, and unsuccessfully tried to make himself emperor but the fact remains that he was elected at the first president of the ROC, which is why 1912 is considered the year the ROC was born. Call it Americanized propagandistic hogwash if you want but that is what many historians from all backgrounds are sticking to and it is what I am sticking to. As to your second point, Wang Jing Wei who originally led the left-leaning Wuhan faction of the GMD is as close as you can get to being a GMD leader and perhaps deservedly so but he could never have been officially considered a leader because Sun had named Chiang as the next GMD leader on his deathbed. To this day, the GMD has not recognized the Wuhan government as a legitimate government. Besides, as you know from history, you do know that the Wuhan faction itself broke up, some members left the GMD for good and joined the CCP, and others including Wang rejoined Chiang in Nanjing. I do not doubt that the Soviets gave much aid and advice to the GMD, after all the Huangpu Military Academy could not have been built without Soviet funds, but if the GMD were to be influenced by the Soviet Union, they had to be influenced directly from the Soviet Union and not the Chinese Communist Party. Chiang may have kicked out Borodin but he had a personal liking to some of Stalin's governance, an influence he kept even after relocating to Taiwan.
Assuming that he can avoid another civil war, then I think this would happen.
I think the 50s would have been a turbulent period with communist uprising and slow growth. But instead of reverting back like Mao did, Chinese culture and economy would flourish in the 60s and 70s, giving them a massive head start compared to today.
In the 1980s it would be apparent that the growth has primarily benefited the rich, and the working class is likely to start protesting for democracy and better working conditions. As America is allied with China to counter the USSR, the government is forced to make some concessions and will implement flawed democracy. The 90s and 00s will be good decades for China because it will benefit from the tech revolution and the massive increase in trade.
Then similar to today's scenario, China will get arrogant due to its success, become much more nationalist, and be unwilling to do reforms. In addition, America will lose interest in free trade as China is taking advantage of the USA by subsidizing its own exports. They might get a more competent leader than Xi, but the effect is still the same, China will start closing down, the economy will stagnate and its relationship with the west will deteriorate. As the birth rate declined much earlier, they would face the same demographic problems as today.
In this scenario, China would be a richer, more open society and would most likely have some democratic elements. It will also look different because they will not adopt the communist building style. But the people of China are still the same, so we will still have many of the same conflicts as today. Outside of China, there would be no North Korea and Vietnam would not be communist. But there might be more communist states in Latin America as the USA would be less scared of communism.
Overall, that sounds like a much better scenario than today.
If KMT had won the civil war and kept control over the land mass, they likely not have taken such drastic measures as they had during their control over the tiny island. A tiny island has limited resources. And Taiwan is a crowded island. The KMT was extremely desperate back then.
If KMT had won civil war they have more resources to play with. They not face the same kinds of hardships. Sure there can exist corruptions, but how badly the corruption will affect the daily lives of most people will be vastly different. There exists corruption in the 1st world today. You cant compare with South Korea either because South Korea is basically no larger than a small island.
China be a lot better place than under Mao. Hopefully CCP not take switch places and take Taiwan cause life on that tiny island be even worse.
The Cold War be different if happen at all. I cannot imagine a Korean or Vietnam War ever happening when China the largest land mass, and most populated country right next door to either place is more aligned with capitalism.
If KMT had won the civil war and kept control over the land mass, they likely not have taken such drastic measures as they had during their control over the tiny island. A tiny island has limited resources. And Taiwan is a crowded island. The KMT was extremely desperate back then.
If KMT had won civil war they have more resources to play with. They not face the same kinds of hardships. Sure there can exist corruptions, but how badly the corruption will affect the daily lives of most people will be vastly different. There exists corruption in the 1st world today.
People really don't understand of how comically incompetent KMT were (and still are, really). They would've messed up just as bad as CCP had, if not worse. Before Japanese invasion, ROC was literally divided by warlords (you can Google Central Plains War, which killed hundreds of thousands of people; who needed the Japanese to kill Chinese when you had Chinese people themselves killing each other every other month?) and China was laughably poor except the Northeast which had a lot of Japanese influence. There were civil wars and natural disasters left and right, and the rural area was in particular in complete destitute, which provided fertile ground for communism to spring and prosper. If KMT had stayed, China would've stayed just as poor.
The only reasons why Taiwan became successful were because a) it's small, b) it received a ton American aid which was basically Asian Marshall Plan, and c) Taiwan had existing infrastructure and a far more educated population owing to Japanese colonisation. China was a) huge, b) probably would have received American aid as well, but since China was so big, the foreign aid wouldn't have been as impactful and Soviet Union would've found ways to mess it all up; they would not have allowed a large neighbour fall under America's hem and grow, that is literally Russia's philosophy, and c) the population were barely literate. What success Taiwan achieved would never have been replicated in China if ROC had stayed.
Actually KMT was so incompetent that Taiwan's economy never got as successful as the likes of Hong Kong, Singapore and Israel. If Taiwan hadn't been occupied by KMT or had kept more of Japan's influence, it would've done way better.
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China be a lot better place than under Mao. Hopefully CCP not take switch places and take Taiwan cause life on that tiny island be even worse.
The US would never have let CCP take over a strategic island like Taiwan.
Last edited by Greysholic; 08-12-2021 at 01:20 AM..
People really don't understand of how comically incompetent KMT were (and still are, really). They would've messed up just as bad as CCP had, if not worse. Before Japanese invasion, ROC was literally divided by warlords (you can Google Central Plains War, which killed hundreds of thousands of people; who needed the Japanese to kill Chinese when you had Chinese people themselves killing each other every other month?) and China was laughably poor except the Northeast which had a lot of Japanese influence. There were civil wars and natural disasters left and right, and the rural area was in particular in complete destitute, which provided fertile ground for communism to spring and prosper. If KMT had stayed, China would've stayed just as poor.
The only reasons why Taiwan became successful were because a) it's small, b) it received a ton American aid which was basically Asian Marshall Plan, and c) Taiwan had existing infrastructure and a far more educated population owing to Japanese colonisation. China was a) huge, b) probably would have received American aid as well, but since China was so big, the foreign aid wouldn't have been as impactful and Soviet Union would've found ways to mess it all up; they would not have allowed a large neighbour fall under America's hem and grow, and c) the population were barely literate. What success Taiwan achieved would never have been replicated in China if ROC had stayed.
Actually KMT was so incompetent that Taiwan's economy never got as successful as the likes of Hong Kong, Singapore and Israel. If Taiwan hadn't been occupied by KMT or had kept more of Japan's influence, it would've done way better.
The US would never have let CCP take over a strategic island like Taiwan.
Political parties evolve over time. For instance CCP changed drastically after Mao and it has changed quite a bit after Xi got into power. The KMT in 1960s is likely to be run by totally different people than the KMT in the 1940s.
What matters more is what kind of ideology they believe in. For an economy to function, people need to be able to trade goods and services and the state needs to provide clear rules and enforce them fairly. If the party believes in an ideology that is not compatible with markets or fair rules, then it will end badly. CCP under Map was against both.
Also, China was first under a dysfunctional and corrupt dynasty, then it got into a civil war and then it was attacked by Japan. KMT never got the opportunity to run the economy in peace.
Political parties evolve over time. For instance CCP changed drastically after Mao and it has changed quite a bit after Xi got into power. The KMT in 1960s is likely to be run by totally different people than the KMT in the 1940s.
Seeing that the KMT in 1960s was run by the same people as the KMT in the 1940s in Taiwan, I doubt that would've been the case.
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Also, China was first under a dysfunctional and corrupt dynasty, then it got into a civil war and then it was attacked by Japan. KMT never got the opportunity to run the economy in peace.
They would not have been allowed to run the economy in peace had they stayed in China. Like I said, Russia would not have allowed such a large neighbour cozying up to the US. The only neighbour to Russia's border that were able to live in peace during the Cold War was Finland (and Norway but that border is too small so it doesn't count), a country that made Russia pay in a bloody war, ceded a ton of lands to Russia, and censored their media to avoid Russia's retaliation. They would've started things in China such as funding another proxy war or implementing communist satellite states like they did with Korea, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East.
Seeing that the KMT in 1960s was run by the same people as the KMT in the 1940s in Taiwan, I doubt that would've been the case.
Lots of politicians and backers changed. And, there is no guarantee that Chiang would have managed to stay in power or stay alive till 1975 if KMT controlled the mainland.
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Originally Posted by Greysholic
They would not have been allowed to run the economy in peace had they stayed in China. Like I said, Russia would not have allowed such a large neighbour cozying up to the US. The only neighbour to Russia's border that were able to live in peace during the Cold War was Finland (and Norway but that border is too small so it doesn't count), a country that made Russia pay in a bloody war, ceded a ton of lands to Russia, and censored their media to avoid Russia's retaliation. They would've started things in China such as funding another proxy war or implementing communist satellite states like they did with Korea, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East.
Except, China did cozy up to the US under Mao (70s) and even more after Mao and the USSR was not able to stop it.
And they do have a satelite state today, its called Mongolia. And in this scenario it is likely that Manchuria would be an USSR puppet state, making sure that there is no border between China and Russia.
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