HK Protesters are playing right into Chinese govt's hands by disrupting HK (people, travel)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
After all, I expect Beijing will realize that they need to make compromise with the demonstrators in Hong Kong.
The longer the current scenario drags on in Hong Kong, the more damage it will infringe on China's economy.
For China it is just an annoyance, for Hong Kong it is a disaster. China can easily wait it out. Carrie Lam will eventually resign when the protest calms down and maybe they will get a "independent" police investigation, but thats it.
The chance of China agreeing to the protestors demands are still zero. They do not want to similar uprisings other places in China, they do not want to show that violence work and no one knows what willl make the protestors happy apart from full capitulation.
On the bright note, China might compromise with the United States and give them a trade deal.
For China it is just an annoyance, for Hong Kong it is a disaster. China can easily wait it out. Carrie Lam will eventually resign when the protest calms down and maybe they will get a "independent" police investigation, but thats it.
The chance of China agreeing to the protestors demands are still zero. They do not want to similar uprisings other places in China, they do not want to show that violence work and no one knows what willl make the protestors happy apart from full capitulation.
On the bright note, China might compromise with the United States and give them a trade deal.
FYI: One demand, out of five, has already been met.
Hong Kong's Upper Class can sit it out. The Middle Class, under the worst case scenario, can still sell their apartment (which price miraculously suffered only minor adjustment even after 5 month's turmoil) and move to Taiwan, Malaysia or Portugal.
Those who cannot sit out are the lower class who are the most active in the current demonstration. China is left to deal with them.
In the meantime, China cannot raise any money in Hong Kong -- including bond and stock. That is far from annoyance. Let's see who can sit it out. In fact, that is precisely what the radical demonstrators desire.
FYI: One demand, out of five, has already been met.
Hong Kong's Upper Class can sit it out. The Middle Class, under the worst case scenario, can still sell their apartment (which price miraculously suffered only minor adjustment even after 5 month's turmoil) and move to Taiwan, Malaysia or Portugal.
Those who cannot sit out are the lower class who are the most active in the current demonstration. China is left to deal with them.
In the meantime, China cannot raise any money in Hong Kong -- including bond and stock. That is far from annoyance. Let's see who can sit it out. In fact, that is precisely what the radical demonstrators desire.
I think you are overestimating the ability of the upper class and middle class to escape the consequences of an econonic crisis. For instance if the middle class tried to sell their homes, then the property market would crash.
The reason it has not crashed yet is because people refuse to sell for a discount and the government has made it easier to borrow money. The sectors that are suffering the worst is exports, business properties, retail and tourism. None of them can hold China hostage. The businesses who are suffering will eventually run out of capital and affect the rest of the economy, but that does not happen overnight.
China has many places to raise money, and this protest will not make it impossible to raise money through Hong Kong. In fact the finance sector and the stock market is doing okay in Hong Kong which implies that for money it is business as usual.
In fact based on observations from here in mainland, people are starting lose interest and the media hardly talks about Hong Kong anymore. If Hong Kong people think that they can force Chinas hand by destroying their own economy then they are up for a rude awakning.
Just one more point about house prices. I wonder if we will see a bulls trap in Hong Kong. When China eased credit in 2015, it led to a massive surge in prices. Hong Kong has done the same and it lead to instant results, property transactions surged.
With the rest of the economy doing badly or imploding, the housing market could be the last man standing. Much easier credit will lead to initial boost and investors will soon come and join the party, because where else are they going to put their money? This could lead to a price surge. However, it will be a temporary boost because real estate speculation cannot replace all that is lost. Once the surge is over, even more will default on their mortages.
HK government has experienced fiscal surplus every year since 2003. If it is willing to spend out of recession, and not spending on those White Elephant projects like HK-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge or High Speed Railway which ridership is extremely low but costs hundreds of billions to build, Hong Kong can be like Japan, enter into many years of recession but people still maintain a relatively high standard of living.
But among the 31 provinces and cities in China, every province recorded fiscal surplus except Shanghai. Province like Henan even got astronomical budget deficit of RMB hundreds of billions.
You'd better worry about how China fares than Hong Kong does.
Of course, China can raise money, i.e. asking HK government to hand over its foreign exchange reserve like Macau had. But that is robbery.
In fact based on observations from here in mainland, people are starting lose interest and the media hardly talks about Hong Kong anymore. If Hong Kong people think that they can force Chinas hand by destroying their own economy then they are up for a rude awakning.
Most demonstrators in HK have zero interest in what the people in China think of them. In fact, most demonstrators don't even apply for the travel documents, never travel to China, and don't even consider they are Chinese but only HKers. So why do you think they care?
HK government has experienced fiscal surplus every year since 2003. If it is willing to spend out of recession, and not spending on those White Elephant projects like HK-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge or High Speed Railway which ridership is extremely low but costs hundreds of billions to build, Hong Kong can be like Japan, enter into many years of recession but people still maintain a relatively high standard of living.
But among the 31 provinces and cities in China, every province recorded fiscal surplus except Shanghai. Province like Henan even got astronomical budget deficit of RMB hundreds of billions.
You'd better worry about how China fares than Hong Kong does.
Of course, China can raise money, i.e. asking HK government to hand over its foreign exchange reserve like Macau had. But that is robbery.
What makes you think that I am not worried about the problems in China? For instance after they eased credit in China I warned people about a real estate bubble and I know that business is slowing down.
But this topic is about Hong Kongs problems. Hong Kong already had an overinflated property market, lots of bad debt and was overdue for a financial crisis. A 2.1 percent budget surplus is not going to prevent that. Especially not when the Hong Kong government get a lot of money through profit tax, tourism and land sales.
The massive decline in tourism, retail and exports combined with the coming global recession will eventually drag down the overinflated property market, which will make the banks insolvent. Hong Kong economic problems are serious and Hong Kong is not in any economic position to force China to give them what they want. If this is what many Hong Kong people believe, then I really feel sorry for them, because they are going to get disappointed.
And why should Hong Kong care about what Chinese think? Maybe because it is China that will decide Hong Kongs future? They are the ones who decide if the demands should be met. To give you an analogy, if a department wants their company to treat them better, do you think it is a good idea to make all the other employees hate them?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
