Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Yes, vandalizing shops, restaurants and stations every weekend. Swearing rude Cantonese words heard during live TV news broadcast. They don't stop. They have caused serious inconvenience to all HK residents and visitors. They do have support, but not from most HK people. None of the people in HK I regularly talk to in Cantonese or English support these actions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling
I am watching the evening news and they just showed how those protesters are vandalizing a subway station, destroying stuff just for the sake of it. This has nothing to do with political protests anymore, it is like with those radical yellow vests in France that had simply gotten used to the habit of vandalizing Paris and other cities every weekend. If those protesters go on like that they will lose any support that is left because the Chinese are orderly people, they don't want riots and destruction.
I don't have a crystal ball and can't predict if a global recession will happen as you predicted.
But judged by what the Monetary Authority in HK has announced in the past, a global recession may not hurt the reserve as much as you predicted.
First, because HK$'s peg with US$ and US is HK's largest exporter, the largest component of HK's reserve is denominated in US assets. Most sovereign funds are conservative and tend to hold more government bonds than stocks. In fact, like China, HK government is also one of the largest holder of T-bond. But T-bonds will actually rise in price when recession comes. And most likely HK government has also held sizable stake in the Blue Chip stocks in US. As everybody knows, NYSE and NASDAQ record new high everyday. HK government also holds considerable stake in HK stock which performance is below par. Most likely the loss in HK stocks is neutralized by the gain in US stocks.
Will HK$ devaluate as you think it should? Probably it won't. First, HK economy is service-oriented. A lower $ does not help as much as if it is manufacturing-based. Second, HK$ peg is quite solid. Banks have to hand over US$ to the Monetary Authority in exchange for the right to print equivalent amount of HK$. Third, almost everyone in HK has a US$ account. The devaluation doesn't hurt their wallets much.
If a global recession happens, then US stocks will drop too. During a global recession Hong Kong foreign reserve will be depressed and that would be a very bad time to do a mass selling. Its also bad for confidence if the HK government were to run massive deficits without a plan on how it fix it. I think HK government will think thats too risky and will instead go for a traditional rescue package followed by austerity.
One thing you might have missed is that I do not expect any talk about devaluation before the bank collapses. For that to happen the property market need to collapse and before the property market can collapse, unemployment has to go up. When the banks collapses, I think HK should devaluate. In that kind of scenario capital will flee Hong Kong to the US, because it makes no sense to keep your money in an economy with high internal deflation and a high risk for capital controls and devaluation.
Being a service based economy is not that relevant, because the main goal is to stop capital flight, reduce imports and develop new export sectors.
Also, in other news. HK Private Sector PMI fell below 40. That is just as bad as during the 2008 recession, and the global recession has not even started yet. https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-ko...ufacturing-pmi
I guess this last week they've been getting up early in the morning disrupting the HK Metro system and blocking major roads with debris. People can't get to work. A guy was set on fire too. more than one has been beaten by these thugs.
I guess this last week they've been getting up early in the morning disrupting the HK Metro system and blocking major roads with debris. People can't get to work. A guy was set on fire too. more than one has been beaten by these thugs.
Sens in the goddamn army already.
The fact that they have to resort to such sick tactics show that the protestors are losing. Its not Xi Jinping who cannot get to work, or is losing their job, its their own people.
People do not want to live in an anarchy ruled by riot warlords, but a lot of poeple are still under the illusion that China will not let the Hong Kong economy crash and eventually will have to give in. Once all hope is replaced with despair, then I think China will crack down and make Hong Kong more similar to the mainland.
they send in the PLA, all money and tech stops flowing to HK which would then stop flowing to the CCP.
Give the people universal sufferage
That is nonsense, if HK was that important they would have sent in the PLA a long time ago or given in to the demands. I promise you, a lot of business will much rather have PLA presence than the current situation.
The reason China lets Hong Kong turn into anarchy is because a PLA invasion or giving in to the demands is not worth it. Instead they are going to let Hong Kong collapse and use it as an example of why China needs to restrict western influence.
The fact that they have to resort to such sick tactics show that the protestors are losing. Its not Xi Jinping who cannot get to work, or is losing their job, its their own people.
People do not want to live in an anarchy ruled by riot warlords, but a lot of poeple are still under the illusion that China will not let the Hong Kong economy crash and eventually will have to give in. Once all hope is replaced with despair, then I think China will crack down and make Hong Kong more similar to the mainland.
I told you it would not end well, I told you peaceful tactics are more effective, but the only thing you could say was "lol". Hopefully you have learned something.
I see violence escalated a bit over the past few days. But it is still nowhere near the revolution caliber any success requires; it still looks mire like a child's tantrum. I think Beijing us not worried one bit, may be even privately hoping this situation continues...
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
