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Old 08-13-2019, 10:27 AM
 
Location: Redwood Shores, CA
1,651 posts, read 1,324,737 times
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Chinese government has been trying to elevate Shenzhen to be a dominant city in the Pearl River delta region. It would still be years for Shenzhen to catch up with Hong Kong. But with Hong Kong eroding its own stability, I see the relative strength shifting much more quickly now.

In the worst case scenario, a total collapse within months is not unthinkable at this point.

I really hope things work out for Hong Kong. It is an exquisite city.
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Old 08-13-2019, 11:19 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertFisher View Post
Chinese government has been trying to elevate Shenzhen to be a dominant city in the Pearl River delta region. It would still be years for Shenzhen to catch up with Hong Kong. But with Hong Kong eroding its own stability, I see the relative strength shifting much more quickly now.

In the worst case scenario, a total collapse within months is not unthinkable at this point.

I really hope things work out for Hong Kong. It is an exquisite city.
If that was China's goal, why build all the infrastructure to Hong Kong?

Shenzhen-Guangzhou is already way ahead of Hong Kong in many areas, but they can never be a gateway to China because they are under chinese law and people do not speak english. China wants Hong Kong to be a gateway to China, and to achieve that they have to keep Hong Kong legal system and allow free access to the internet.

Of course they want other cities in China to be able to compete with Hong Kong, but they don't want to destroy Hong Kong. However, the protestors don't realize by destroying Hong Kong business enviroment, they are also destroying the reason they have more freedom than mainland China.
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Old 08-13-2019, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Redwood Shores, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
If that was China's goal, why build all the infrastructure to Hong Kong?

Shenzhen-Guangzhou is already way ahead of Hong Kong in many areas, but they can never be a gateway to China because they are under chinese law and people do not speak english. China wants Hong Kong to be a gateway to China, and to achieve that they have to keep Hong Kong legal system and allow free access to the internet.

Of course they want other cities in China to be able to compete with Hong Kong, but they don't want to destroy Hong Kong. However, the protestors don't realize by destroying Hong Kong business enviroment, they are also destroying the reason they have more freedom than mainland China.
A few observations:

1. Yes HK has been the gateway to China for historical reasons, and will continue to have that role. But China is allowing if not encouraging other cities to step up. Most obvious was Shanghai setting up its own free trade zone. In Pearl River delta area it is not so blazon, but the effort going into building up Shenzhen and "equalizing" and mixing the two is very notable. In many areas, SZ indeed has overtaken HK, and I see that trend continuing. I see fewer and fewer reasons for mainlanders to go to HK.

2. I don't think Chinese govt wants to destroy HK, however the importance of unification and unity of the country surpasses economic interests of a strong HK. Push comes to shove, China govt will have no hesitation to step in to protect unification. This is why I am rather concerned about the escalation of the situation. I don't think HK people see what might come when they step over a redline.

3. Agree on this - HK gets special treatment only because it has so much foreign interests still vested in it. The day foreign interests decide that another Asia city is better than HK, and that the cost of moving is smaller than the cost of dealing with the chaos, HK would start to lose its strongest if not the only support for the current arrangement. This would be an ideal situation for Chinese govt, and having the protesters to blame for it is just icing on the cake.

If I were the Chinese govt, seeing that a peaceful integration (we are not even talking about unification) is very unlikely, I'd just take this perfect opportunity to change dynamics and let the protesters continue to undermine HK.
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Old 08-13-2019, 01:11 PM
 
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Pretty shocking I think they closed the HK int'l airport.

I like the sign one protester was carrying saying in so many words "I'm sorry travelers for the disruption, we are protesting for our freedom".
Only in Hong Kong would protesters be so polite as to apologize for protesting.
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Old 08-13-2019, 01:27 PM
 
Location: Redwood Shores, CA
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Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
Pretty shocking I think they closed the HK int'l airport.

I like the sign one protester was carrying saying in so many words "I'm sorry travelers for the disruption, we are protesting for our freedom".
Only in Hong Kong would protesters be so polite as to apologize for protesting.
I think for liability reasons the airport needs to be closed. about 10 days ago i saw video of protesters harassing an old man passenger. Initially he was reported to be a famed mathematician, but that seemed to be an erroneous report. The identity of that old man, and the reason he was harassed at the airport, was never followed up. Having foreigners hurt can become international incident.
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Old 08-13-2019, 02:26 PM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
25,947 posts, read 24,819,924 times
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I think those protests are totally exaggerated. HKers should finally accept that they are part of China now. The signs saying "HK is not China" are ridiculous. The agreement says HK enjoys a high level of autonomy for 50 years, but it doesn't say that HK is independent.

If I were China I would tell rioting HKers that if those protests don't stop, there might not be any negotiations regarding the time after the 50-year transitions phase. In other words, the protesters of today decide what kind of city their children will live in, either a city that is allowed to remain slightly different or a city that is turned into just another Chinese city with identical laws, rights and duties, organization etc. as on the mainland.
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Old 08-13-2019, 04:42 PM
 
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Seems like only yesterday when people in Hong Kong were celebrating throwing off the yoke of English rule and their return to China. Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.
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Old 08-13-2019, 07:30 PM
 
Location: On a Long Island in NY
7,800 posts, read 10,133,392 times
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Originally Posted by victimofGM View Post
Seems like only yesterday when people in Hong Kong were celebrating throwing off the yoke of English rule and their return to China. Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.
Those were stooges bused in from the mainland to put on a show for the media. The vast majority of Hong Kong's population in 1997 was made up of people who moved there specifically to get away from the instability of mainland China, the Cultural Revolution, etc.
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Old 08-13-2019, 11:54 PM
 
Location: Taipei
8,880 posts, read 8,496,019 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
Of course they want other cities in China to be able to compete with Hong Kong, but they don't want to destroy Hong Kong. However, the protestors don't realize by destroying Hong Kong business enviroment, they are also destroying the reason they have more freedom than mainland China.
So the protestors are to be blamed now? Are you kidding me?

Quote:
I think those protests are totally exaggerated. HKers should finally accept that they are part of China now. The signs saying "HK is not China" are ridiculous. The agreement says HK enjoys a high level of autonomy for 50 years, but it doesn't say that HK is independent.
Is this a joke? Very few protestors, if any, are demanding independence. The problem here is that this "high level of autonomy" is quickly being eroded by PRC and it's only been 20 years. Why else would HKers protest? Because they are bored?

Btw it is not your place to decide what Hkers should and should not accept, foreigner.
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Old 08-14-2019, 02:16 AM
 
4,698 posts, read 4,092,248 times
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Originally Posted by Greysholic View Post
So the protestors are to be blamed now? Are you kidding me?
Yes, when they try to destroy their own economy, because they think that will make Beijing scared (it won't), then I definitely will blame them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greysholic View Post
Is this a joke? Very few protestors, if any, are demanding independence. The problem here is that this "high level of autonomy" is quickly being eroded by PRC and it's only been 20 years. Why else would HKers protest? Because they are bored?

Btw it is not your place to decide what Hkers should and should not accept, foreigner.
Hong Kongs autonomy is not being eroded very quickly, they still have free internet, their own education system, access to foreign media, their own legal system. I am sure you can come up with a list of horrible things, but the point is it could be a lot worse.

So why do they protest? Hong Kong people protest because they constantly get negative news from western media and social media, and because they are unhappy about property prices and working conditions. If China had placed Hong Kong under the great firewall at the same time as in mainland China, these protests would never happen. That is because they will not have access to all those negative news and they will not be able to organize a protest. Hong Kong is right now confirming China's and many other countries belief that internet censorship is important.

I live in China, a lot of people in China are not happy about what is going on in Hong Kong, and starting to reconsider Hong Kong special status. The freedoms that benefit Hong Kong can be taken away, and a protest movement who is trying to destroy the very reason they have special status, makes it very easy for Beijing to find someone to blame.

I do not want Hong Kong to become just another city in China, I want Hong Kong to remain the gateway to China, and therefore I blame the protestors.

Last edited by Camlon; 08-14-2019 at 02:32 AM..
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