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Mainlanders won't care about rights unless they have no job and no food. That is the only way the CCP will lose its mandate of heaven. THe PLA can't suppress 1 billion angry people
It is just a totally different media climate in China and media influences peoples opinion a lot. Mainlanders care about rights, they just do not feel oppressed. It is a western myth that the only reason people do not rise up is because they have food on the table. There are lots of poor childless men in Chinas biggest cities, but they do not rise up.
The people coming to Hong Kong are on average much more positive to Hong Kong. However, they might be unaware of the things that has happened in Hong Kong, because they get their news from the Chinese media. By talking to people you can definitely change some minds.
The current tactics has led to the extradition bill going from "dead" to "motion to withdraw". That is nothing. I see two outcomes from here, either they invoke emergency powers which would end all freedoms for Hong Kong or they wait it out. The end result will be an uncomfortable truce and an economy in ruins. Lots of people will be unemployed, salaries will fall, businesses will go bankrupt. Beijing will then use Hong Kong as an example of what not to do. There are no good results from the current protest tactics.
The end result will be an uncomfortable truce and an economy in ruins. Lots of people will be unemployed, salaries will fall, businesses will go bankrupt. Beijing will then use Hong Kong as an example of what not to do. There are no good results from the current protest tactics.
The protest has been going on for months. None of these has happened. Hyperbolic much?
The protest has been going on for months. None of these has happened. Hyperbolic much?
You have no idea what you are talking about.
Occupancy rates for hotels fell by 5% in July, and hotels have cut prices drastically. (source)
July retail sales value declined by 11.8% in July. (source)
Expected housing sales is expected to drop by 20% between July and August. (source)
PMI for August fell to 40.8, which is recession level and is the lower than every single other state. (source)
Obviously if the protests continue the overvalued property market will crash, and it will take HK banks with them.
The reason unemployment has only increased by 0.1% so far is because the latest number is from July. Companies that experience decreased revenue from tourism and investment will not instantly start firing workers.
2. -11.8% is pretty bad but Singapore, without any protest and is even allegedly benefiting from HK's protest, also stands at -9%.
3. Germany's PMI is also really low atm, the economic engine of the EU.
Those are the numbers for July, the Airport incident has not even happened yet, and many people are reluctant to cancel their already planned trips. Chinese tour groups are reporting 90% declines in their number of customers, and 80% of all tourists in Hong Kong are chinese. The numbers will get much worse in the coming months.
Yes Germany PMi is also low. However their central bank has gone out and said that Germany is likely to enter a recession. Hong Kongs PMI is worse than Germany, and their retail sales numbers are much worse. Hong Kong PMI has gone from almost positive to the lowest in the world in 2 months.
It is obvious that Hong Kong will enter a recession, and the longer the protests last, the worse it will be.
Those are the numbers for July, the Airport incident has not even happened yet, and many people are reluctant to cancel their already planned trips. Chinese tour groups are reporting 90% declines in their number of customers, and 80% of all tourists in Hong Kong are chinese. The numbers will get much worse in the coming months.
Yes Germany PMi is also low. However their central bank has gone out and said that Germany is likely to enter a recession. Hong Kongs PMI is worse than Germany, and their retail sales numbers are much worse.
It is obvious that Hong Kong will enter a recession, and the longer the protests last, the worse it will be.
Germany is likely to enter a recession. The UK is likely to enter a recession. Singapore is likely to enter a recession. Australia is likely to enter a recession. Italy is already in recession. None of them had a protest of the same scale.
Germany is likely to enter a recession. The UK is likely to enter a recession. Singapore is likely to enter a recession. Australia is likely to enter a recession. Italy is already in recession. None of them had a protest of the same scale.
Recessions happen. Big deal.
We all know that the global economy is heading towards a recession. That just makes the situation worse.
And that the protests did not cause the decline is nonsense. As I said there has been a 90% decline in the number of customers for chinese tour groups to HK. That would not have happened without the protests.
Also, the pmi went from 48 to 40.8 in two months, while China pmi did not drop. That would also not happen without the protest.
Foreign citizens protesting the government are always asking US to intervene or trying to influence American public opinion. Always. As many countries that complain about US policy we have even more that are always demanding of the US "help, save my ass". Why do you think, when you see these protests in foreign countries, the protest signs are always in English? They are asking UK to intervene because they see them as there former caretakers.
Both have significant influence on the world stage (well, UK less so). China does it's own thing but they are not immune to global criticism.
Now in terms of what the US can do, just strongly publically condemning China may be enough - this is a good leverage opportunity with the trade war going on. Hong Kong is the mainlands "bread basket". Anything that hurts China will help us (within limit because we also have to be aware a damaged China also negatively impacts the global economy), but let it be known to China that we can back off on Hong Kong if.....
Even without demonstration, Hong Kong would anyway enter recession. All the big local companies record reduced earning in the first half year -- before the major demonstrations. But of course the demonstration aggravates it.
The outgoing tourists from China have quickly shrunk. Macao, which sees no demonstration, has seen its hotel occupancy rate down in recent months.
The trade war has inflicted more damage to the economies of Shenzhen (Hong Kong's neighbor), Hong Kong and Macau than the demonstrators did.
The biggest worry for Hong Kong is its banking sector. Over the years, the State-owned and private corporations from China have issued US$billions of bonds in Hong Kong. Given the debt crisis in China, I just wonder how much of them will go into default.
Being usually politically inactive, people in Hong Kong can be highly charged if they are agitated.
Historically there were two large scale demonstrations in Hong Kong. Both ranged for years. 1927-1929 and 1967-1969.
Ironically both times the demonstrations were led by Communists. They also engaged in same kind of tactics -- blocking vital transportation, extensive strike, boycott, students quit schools,...etc.
Between 1967-69, 53 victims were killed. Mainly by make-shift bombs laid down on street corners. One victim was a journalist killed by Molotov thrown at his car.
This time it is relatively mild. At least so far no one is killed. But the guerrilla tactic and more advanced communication technique like Telegram and Mesh are harder to handle.
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