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Old 01-28-2020, 08:26 AM
 
1,136 posts, read 525,982 times
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All suspected cases should be tested. Investigations turned out most suspect cases are caused by other more common viruses like flu, parainfluenza or common cold. People tested negative of the new virus are not quarantined.

Not quiet bad currently. Most people in China are still fine but may have to delay their travel after the Chinese New Year.

Outside of Hubei depending on locations, Restaurants still opened are full of customers or people are still eating together at homes after buying food from supermarkets or markets.

People leaving Hubei to other parts of China and other countries are or will very likely be quarantined for 2 weeks in their new locations before having freedom of movement. This is a good policy.

HK and Macao are banning visitors who were in Hubei anytime in last 14 days. Hundreds of these visitors have been denied entry.

Important point is that some people are asymptotic but can infect other people who have symptoms.

These viruses could also spread by sewage systems and enter the bodies from eyes but these routes should be less common.

Reviewing and using some of the useful strategies to prevent the spread of SARS and MERS in Asia maybe helpful.

Swine flu in 2009 was not dealt with effectively by countries and infected to many people worldwide because of the lack of attention compared to SARS and MERS.

Last edited by Tomboy-; 01-28-2020 at 08:39 AM..
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Old 01-28-2020, 08:38 AM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
37,102 posts, read 41,267,704 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomboy- View Post
Not quiet bad currently. Most people in China are still fine but may have to delay their travel after the Chinese New Year.

Outside of Hubei depending on locations, Restaurants still opened are full of customers or people are still eating together at homes after buying food from supermarkets or markets.

People leaving Hubei to other parts of China and other countries are or will very likely be quarantined for 2 weeks in their new locations before having freedom of movement. This is a good policy.

HK and Macao are banning visitors who were in Hubei anytime in last 14 days. Hundreds of these visitors have been denied entry.

Important point is that some people are asymptotic but can infect other people who have symptoms.

These viruses could also spread by sewage systems and enter the bodies from eyes but these routes should be less common.

Reviewing and using some of the useful strategies to prevent the spread of SARS and MERS in Asia maybe helpful.

Swine flu in 2009 was not dealt with effectively by countries and infected to many people worldwide because of the lack of attention compared to SARS and MERS.
It is a respiratory virus, so it will not be spread by sewage systems.

It is acquired by handling infected animals (snakes appear to be the culprit) but by doing so and then touching the face, not actually from eating them.
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Old 01-28-2020, 08:47 AM
 
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Agree it is from animals, the actual animals still not sure. Eating snakes or other animals cooked fully can kill the germs. The spread to humans most likely took place before the animals were cooked. Chinese don't like and trust uncooked food.

No. SARS had been spreaded by sewage systems, infecting many new patients from a patient using a toilet, entering other homes' toilets mostly vertically in apartments in a housing estate called Amoy Garden in Hong Kong in 2003. Experts ruled out spreading by air vertically over long distances. It was a detail investigation by experts in HK. Before that, experts believed this transmission route was impossible or very unlikely.

This is why pouring diluted bleach to pipes are also suggested as a preventive measure in HK.

A vaccine for this new virus is doable but the virus may be contained faster than the mass production and injection of vaccine.

Last edited by Tomboy-; 01-28-2020 at 09:04 AM..
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Old 01-28-2020, 09:08 AM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
37,102 posts, read 41,267,704 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomboy- View Post
No. SARS had been spreaded by sewage systems, infecting many new patients from a patient using a toilet, entering other homes' toilets mostly vertically in apartments in a housing estate called Amoy Garden in Hong Kong in 2003. Experts ruled out spreading by air vertically over long distances. It was a detail investigation by experts in HK. Before that, experts believed this transmission route was impossible or very unlikely.

This is why pouring diluted bleach to pipes are also suggested as a preventive measure in HK.

A vaccine for this new virus is doable but the virus may be contained faster than the mass production and injection of vaccine.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/about/transmission.html

"Human coronaviruses most commonly spread from an infected person to others through
  • the air by coughing and sneezing
  • close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands
  • touching an object or surface with the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose, or eyes before washing your hands
  • rarely, fecal contamination"

The Amoy Garden transmission was through the air.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15102999
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Old 01-28-2020, 06:28 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
Unless you are planning to leave permanently, I would not leave if I were you. Your family are much safer in your own apartment than in the airport or on a plane.

And if it gets out of control, it will get out of control everywhere. If it gets under control, then life will eventually return to normal.
Yeah, I have two kids, a 4 month old and a 6 year old. We're going to stick it out in Guangzhou. Our main concern was having enough veggies and fruits and other nutritional food available for my wife to breast feed. We are staying indoors and buy our groceries for Alibaba's Hema online store. Watching movies and doing some homework and other educational activities since the oldest daughter will not be in school probably for the rest of the school year.


We looked at going into Malaysia and living in KL, however most SE Asian countries have stopped issuing visa's on arrival or E-Visa's online. They haven't made it public, but I've tried for two days to get my wife a visa and every site says it cannot issue a visa to China nationals at this time. Philippines is the only country to state officially that they are no longer taking Chinese nationals for visa on arrival.


For those living in China, I wouldn't eat at a restaurant until at a much later date. Restaurants are dead, and I can only imagine all of the leftover and old rotten inventory of food sitting there that the restaurant doesn't want to just throw away because of the lost costs.
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Old 01-28-2020, 06:46 PM
 
1,136 posts, read 525,982 times
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This mode of transmission happened only in HK, it is not well noted in other places without the bad experience.
https://www.ceo.gov.hk/archive/2017/...g20130330.html
"Investigation showed ..................through the pipes."

Most other coverage about the incident and investigations were from Chinese language media.

Some other experts' reports have diagrams of sewage systems and buildings explaining the spread to the public.

SARS
https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/healthtopi...ent/24/47.html

Experts in HK suggested pouring diluted bleach or water to kill or flush the possible existence of germs in flawed sewage systems of buildings and housing estates from 2003, this is included in the current health advice of the current outbreak from the HK government.

Wuhan Novel Virus
https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/healthtopi...24/102466.html

The flaws of problematic sewage systems within buildings and housing estates in HK were noted by architects, sewage officials and public health experts who are responsible for improvements to prevent future outbreaks.

Last edited by Tomboy-; 01-28-2020 at 07:12 PM..
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Old 01-28-2020, 07:24 PM
 
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Originally Posted by projectmaximus View Post
Well I really appreciate hearing all the reports from you folks in Asia. Still waiting to see if we will take our trip to Asia beginning the last week of Feb. We travel in/out of Asia via Shanghai, but could limit ourselves to just the PVG airport if necessary. (flying in with a layover, leaving had planned to stay in Shanghai for 4 nights but we could make it half a day instead)

Of course, the places we are spending most of our time (Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan) are not immune so have to also watch what happens there as well.

Almost all airlines offer free rebooking or refund for flights to/from mainland China, so you can probably postpone or cancel your trip. Almost all airlines are also cancelling or reducing their capacities to/from mainland China, so you might even be forced to cancel or rebook. IMHO, should just skip Shanghai altogether and proceed to your other destinations, where there are substantially fewer cases and risks are lower (cannot be completely be zero and there are still few cases in those countries).


New reports show that this virus is particularly contagious and human-to-human transmission is likely possible before the onset of symptoms. The first German case just got the virus from his colleague, who visited from Shanghai. She showed no visible symptoms and started to feel sick on the way back to Shanghai. She got the virus from her parents who were from Wuhan and just visited her in Shanghai just before her trip to Germany. Germany just reported there are now 4 cases, all from this same source.



Another case reported is that of the Japanese bus driver. He was just driving tour groups from Wuhan, and he got infected with the virus.


While the fatality rate of this virus seems lower than SARS, its ability to just infect other people even prior to the onset of symptoms is very troubling.
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Old 01-28-2020, 08:10 PM
 
1,136 posts, read 525,982 times
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Everyone remember swine flu still spreaded in most countries with temperature screening and health declaration at borders.

I would advice people not familiar with the region to delay travel.

Personal health assessment is needed before travel instead of following others.

My neighbours and friends are still going to and from Mainland China except Hubei, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan and South Korea for various purposes.
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Old 01-29-2020, 05:00 PM
 
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How long do you guys think it will take for the virus to be contained? weeks? months?
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Old 01-29-2020, 05:15 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
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Originally Posted by Oistrakh12 View Post
How long do you guys think it will take for the virus to be contained? weeks? months?

Months.
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