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My guess is early spring. Maybe mid April? It will get worse in February and might reach 15K to 20K people infected, but then I think the numbers will drop quickly in March.
Australian scientists recreated the virus and shared it with the WHO, so now labs around the globe can begin working on a vaccine (I read somewhere that it could be developed in about 2 months) and we should also soon be able to test for the virus in asymptomatic people. Both of these things should lead to getting the outbreak under control by the time they are implemented...whenever that ends up being. But in any case, it's a decent bit of good news I'd say. I imagine the Chinese scientists (who had a head start on this) are also working furiously towards these solutions as well.
Still taking a wait and see approach for our trip. Air Canada has announced that we can postpone our flights for free (until June 15) or get a refund.
How long do you guys think it will take for the virus to be contained? weeks? months?
The SARS virus lasted about 5 or 6 months. Some thing that the Coronavirus might not last that long. However, that assumes being able to get it quickly under control, which I think it very likely, but it remains to be seen how things turn out. There are thoughts that a vaccine can be made in a couple of months. Right now, it's anyone's guess?
The SARS virus lasted about 5 or 6 months. Some thing that the Coronavirus might not last that long. However, that assumes being able to get it quickly under control, which I think it very likely, but it remains to be seen how things turn out. There are thoughts that a vaccine can be made in a couple of months. Right now, it's anyone's guess?
We do not know when this virus started. We know that the first case has no link to the wetmarket. I believe it started earlier than late November, but got undetected because it can be confused with a regular influenza. This virus could have been around for much longer than 2 months, which explains why so many got infected.
Proper actions against SARS started around 1st April in Hong Kong and 1st of May the number of new infections had dropped to a low level. Proper actions against SARS in mainland China started around 20th of April and a month later the number of new infections was lower. (source)
If this virus is to follow SARS, things should start to get better around 25th of February, which is 1 month after they quaranteed Wuhan and closed all uneccesary activites. If not, and it get out of control, then it will not be contained to China and become a worldwide pandemic.
We do not know when this virus started. We know that the first case has no link to the wetmarket. I believe it started earlier than late November, but got undetected because it can be confused with a regular influenza. This virus could have been around for much longer than 2 months, which explains why so many got infected.
Proper actions against SARS started around 1st April in Hong Kong and 1st of May the number of new infections had dropped to a low level. Proper actions against SARS in mainland China started around 20th of April and a month later the number of new infections was lower. (source)
If this virus is to follow SARS, things should start to get better around 25th of February, which is 1 month after they quaranteed Wuhan and closed all uneccesary activites. If not, and it get out of control, then it will not be contained to China and become a worldwide pandemic.
Good point. Some estimates as to when the coronavirus may have begun puts it at somewhere around November to December. Depending on how long the epidemic will last, projections are hopeful that it will peak somewhere around late April to early May. That's not too far off from the 5-6 months I suggested, which was based on info I had seen about it which was based on some of the earliest reports known about the outbreaks. Granted, "peaking" doesn't mean the end of it, but rather that it should (hopefully) start declining. When it began is just an estimate. It's not easy to guess with a population of about 1.4 billion people. It could've been farther back, but it's based on what information there is as to the first few people who required hospitalization, medical treatment or died. What has complicated matters, as I understand it, is that China had downplayed the potential seriousness of the initial outbreaks, and that people are not too pleased about that since it delayed matters until it became worse and couldn't be ignored. https://thehill.com/changing-america...outbreak-reach https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China
What also isn't known is where it came from in the first place. Suggestions have been that it could've potentially come from bats or snakes sold live as food through open markets where it made the jump to humans. Fresh food markets around Asia are not known for being clean places. If you've ever been in one, you'll know what I mean. I could tell you things I've seen that would raise the hair on your head.
Of some of the images, purported to be from China, regarding bats that I've seen, it's not a pretty sight. with tots slurping at the heads of creatures having been cooked in soups, but not skinned or cleaned (fur and entrails still intact). I don't know if those images are real or not though, but the lack cleanliness is a big problem in parts of Asia. I do know that bats are on the diet of some of the hilltribers in Northern Thailand, but they were more carefully skinned, prepared and cooked. BBQ'd field rats are also found in the diets of smaller rural communities around Central and NE Thailand. It's probably fair to say much of rural China (or at least the practices) are similar. Let's be optimistically hopeful that the virus can be contained and that a vaccine can be quickly developed, mass produced, and distributed, although that's a pretty tall order. All that can be done at the present time is to be aware as best we can and take precautions to try to keep it at a minimum from spreading.
The SARS virus lasted about 5 or 6 months. Some thing that the Coronavirus might not last that long. However, that assumes being able to get it quickly under control, which I think it very likely, but it remains to be seen how things turn out. There are thoughts that a vaccine can be made in a couple of months. Right now, it's anyone's guess?
I heard Switzerland is working on a vaccine. Who knows?
I heard Switzerland is working on a vaccine. Who knows?
There are various teams from government agencies, universities, and the private sector in the US, China, HK, and Australia that all have projects underway. The UK and Canada have projects that have been greenlighted, but haven't yet started, last time I checked.
I heard Switzerland is working on a vaccine. Who knows?
Australia is as well, as are the US, Chine and Russia. Russia is said to have blocked off its border with China. Apparently, Switzerland is warning that it could take over a year to develop a vaccine.
It's interesting that with all the international squabbles and threats, all it takes is a tiny virus to take over the spotlight.
The US has issued a level 4 travel advisory on China ("do not travel"), which is only shared by Syria, Afghanistan, Iran and the likes. It's obvious that they are doing this to spite WHO, which is nothing more than China's lapdog and is putting China's pathetic face above all else.
Increasing number of patients in China are recovered after less than or about a week of hospitalisation.
Many cases in China are being researched, more details about the virus and treatment are now known.
Other than Hubei, most people in China not travelling back to families are working or living as normal with masks on this year. Food supply are stable and supermarkets are opened. Temperature are checked when people enter stations.
The number of inter city or province travellers will increase again next week, hubei will remain closed longer.
Hopefully the health checks and compulsory mask requirement will help the situation when travellers return.
Last edited by Tomboy-; 01-31-2020 at 07:23 AM..
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