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Old 03-27-2020, 02:18 PM
 
12,022 posts, read 11,564,393 times
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Potentially 530 new cases by April 8, triple the current number.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.Xn5fFIhKjcs

The growth can be exponential with social networking allowed.
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Old 03-28-2020, 03:53 AM
 
Location: Lower East Side, NYC
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Not much of a lockdown. I can't see Made in Abyss in 4DX like I wanted to, but that's about it. ufotable cafe is still open across the street til 21:30. Less people outside though, so kudos to most of the population actually listening.
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Old 03-28-2020, 11:07 AM
 
21 posts, read 12,572 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euro123 View Post
Most people will agree it was partially China's fault to spread it given the whole bat eating and the "great" cleanness among most inner-country Chinese restaurants yet they did a good job at containing it as of now.



Japan has been nothing short of admirable, again given the number of Chinese and the population density of Tokyo. Korea in comparison did far worse with the same amount of pop. density, money, hospitals etc.
Anyone who thinks that Japan's way of hiding and not testing is far more admirable than SK is really buying into their media delusions. There's a reason why authorities all around the world refer to SK data, but not Japan's. SK has tested roughly 500 more times than Japan per capita.



If you don't test, you don't have cases.

Also, Japan's death rate is much higher than SK's, with a high positive test rate.

SK's testing model has been praised by the world, adopted by many right now, their inventions on drive-thru and walk-thru testing.





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHV4ukogdE0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jij7w9jQZo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uz3XpzxRVXs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-r79RXboXc
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Old 03-28-2020, 11:17 AM
 
21 posts, read 12,572 times
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Japanese journalists themselves are criticizing Japan's response for not testing enough (due to Olympics), with the current spikes in cases in Tokyo and elsewhere indicating a gloomy future as soon as Abe called the Olympics off for a year.

From the NY times article:

"On Thursday, Katsunobu Kato, Japan’s health minister, said he had informed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that there was evidence that Japan was now at a high risk of rampant infection."

"While South Korea, with a population less than half the size of Japan’s, has conducted tests on close to 365,000 people, Japan has tested only about 25,000. Japan now has the capacity to conduct about 7,500 tests a day, but its daily average is closer to 1,200 or 1,300."


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/w...ronavirus.html


Japan's rationale for not testing is that they don't want to burden the hospitals, but look at SK who has ingeniously come up with out-of-hospital ways to test people, and successfully trace and isolate them. There hasn't been a strain on their health resources.

Meanwhile you have folks in Japan who obviously have the symptoms but cannot get seen by a doctor, and suffer without proper treatment.
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Old 03-28-2020, 12:51 PM
 
Location: Here and There
497 posts, read 696,058 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paixetluv View Post
Japan's rationale for not testing is that they don't want to burden the hospitals, but look at SK who has ingeniously come up with out-of-hospital ways to test people, and successfully trace and isolate them. There hasn't been a strain on their health resources.

Meanwhile you have folks in Japan who obviously have the symptoms but cannot get seen by a doctor, and suffer without proper treatment.
But shouldn't we still be seeing a burden on the health care system in Japan even without testing? Even without testing, you should still have many people who need intensive care treatment. Or are they dying at home and their deaths are being blamed on something else?

Is it happening and no one is reporting on it? Even if you never tested anyone, you would still see an increase in people needing serious medical care.

That is what I don't get. Japan is not China. If something truly horrible was going on, I would expect that there would be people talking about it - doctors posting on social media, family members talking, etc.

It is so quiet in Japan (edited to add that is was so quiet up until early this week), which is what amazes me. Either they are not experiencing the major health effects, or the government has found a way to silence everyone.

I guess only time will tell.

Last edited by kira kira; 03-28-2020 at 01:09 PM..
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Old 03-28-2020, 10:49 PM
 
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Presumably the strategy behind large scale testing is to ferret out and quarantine the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic carriers before they can do widespread stealth damage.

If scaled up testing were the key to combating the coronavirus Taiwan would be in dire straits now though along with the rest of the world since it's done relatively little. My guess is Japan will weather this scare better than expected for the same reason Taiwan is doing well. The vast majority of us wear masks in public on the assumption that everyone around us is an asymptomatic threat rather than waiting for proof they are in order to take action.

The next two weeks should tell which approach is the more rational and effective.

Last edited by mathlete; 03-28-2020 at 11:15 PM..
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Old 03-28-2020, 11:13 PM
 
Location: Lower East Side, NYC
2,970 posts, read 2,614,993 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kira kira View Post
It is so quiet in Japan (edited to add that is was so quiet up until early this week), which is what amazes me. Either they are not experiencing the major health effects, or the government has found a way to silence everyone.

I guess only time will tell.
Just as you said, Japan is not China. I can only speak as someone absolutely addicted to Japan and as someone who has been in Tokyo for the last 2 weeks that the government is most definitely not silencing everyone. I can attest too that people outside seem healthier than my many other trips to Tokyo, so if people are experiencing serious issues, they are at home or at a hospital.

Honestly given everything and the news, it's probably likely that once having the Olympics happen this year became impossible, the government started to take things a bit more seriously. On the ground, things feel a helluvalot more proactive than things in NYC were though, my only other data point given I live there.
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Old 03-28-2020, 11:20 PM
 
2,264 posts, read 971,107 times
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Originally Posted by Javawood View Post
Just as you said, Japan is not China. I can only speak as someone absolutely addicted to Japan and as someone who has been in Tokyo for the last 2 weeks that the government is most definitely not silencing everyone. I can attest too that people outside seem healthier than my many other trips to Tokyo, so if people are experiencing serious issues, they are at home or at a hospital.

Honestly given everything and the news, it's probably likely that once having the Olympics happen this year became impossible, the government started to take things a bit more seriously. On the ground, things feel a helluvalot more proactive than things in NYC were though, my only other data point given I live there.
After living part-time in Japan for eleven years now my view of the Japanese government -- other than the governor of Hokkaido, Suzuki Naomichi -- is pretty negative. If you have to rely on it for your well-being in a crisis you're probably not going to make it.
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Old 03-28-2020, 11:33 PM
 
Location: Lower East Side, NYC
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Originally Posted by mathlete View Post
After living part-time in Japan for eleven years now my view of the Japanese government -- other than the governor of Hokkaido, Suzuki Naomichi -- is pretty negative. If you have to rely on it for your well-being in a crisis you're probably not going to make it.
I do really like Hokkaido. I always figured I'd try to move there if I got tired of Tokyo. My few excursions to Hakodate and Sapporo I absolutely loved and they were all in January. I love the cold and it's snowing in Tokyo today lol.
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Old 03-28-2020, 11:38 PM
 
2,264 posts, read 971,107 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javawood View Post
I do really like Hokkaido. I always figured I'd try to move there if I got tired of Tokyo. My few excursions to Hakodate and Sapporo I absolutely loved and they were all in January. I love the cold and it's snowing in Tokyo today lol.
We'll be in Hokkaido soon to ride out the rest of the pandemic in the countryside.
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