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It's bad. But the difference perhaps in our favor is that the U.S. economy was great BEFORE the virus, while the Chinese economy has serious problems even before the virus.
Please explain why you feel this way. the stock market? low unemployment?
The US was NOT doing great before the virus. in fact, it was the opposite. it was incredibly shaky and now all our skeletons are coming out.
unemployment numbers are rigged - most americans could not afford a $500 emergency if one came up - evidenced now by the food lines and people unable to pay rent. many people were reliant on govt handouts because they're working part time, gig economy, minimum wage jobs.
the 10 year bull market was the longest but weakest in history. helped by stock buy backs and artificially low interest rates . any attempt to raise them caused panic and chaos. we had liquidity issues that forced the repo markets to freak out last fall (and of course ongoing now).
Please explain why you feel this way. the stock market? low unemployment?
The US was NOT doing great before the virus. in fact, it was the opposite. it was incredibly shaky and now all our skeletons are coming out.
unemployment numbers are rigged - most americans could not afford a $500 emergency if one came up - evidenced now by the food lines and people unable to pay rent. many people were reliant on govt handouts because they're working part time, gig economy, minimum wage jobs.
the 10 year bull market was the longest but weakest in history. helped by stock buy backs and artificially low interest rates . any attempt to raise them caused panic and chaos. we had liquidity issues that forced the repo markets to freak out last fall (and of course ongoing now).
none is this happens in a strong economy.
From a quick glance at your posting history, I suspect you want to go into a political discussion. This isn't the P&C forum and I am not going to discuss party agenda political talking points ("artificially low interest rates" are a dead giveaway you don't know what you are talking about) except that the US economy was doing great by all economic measures before the virus. Particularly compared the China. Case closed.
Your post was on China and this is the Asia forum, let's continue on that topic. Much more interesting things to discuss: I saw "415"'s response as very intriguing and informative. "Mathlete"'s as well about Taiwan. I knew most of that but Mathlete can you tell me how the virus and quarantine tracking works via cell phone tracking? That seems a bit intrusive...but maybe I don't understand how it works. Police coming to a persons house if your cell phone power dies?
From a quick glance at your posting history, I suspect you want to go into a political discussion. This isn't the P&C forum and I am not going to discuss party agenda political talking points ("artificially low interest rates" are a dead giveaway you don't know what you are talking about) except that the US economy was doing great by all economic measures before the virus. Particularly compared the China. Case closed.
Your post was on China and this is the Asia forum, let's continue on that topic. Much more interesting things to discuss: I saw "415"'s response as very intriguing and informative. "Mathlete"'s as well about Taiwan. I knew most of that but Mathlete can you tell me how the virus and quarantine tracking works via cell phone tracking? That seems a bit intrusive...but maybe I don't understand how it works. Police coming to a persons house if your cell phone power dies?
are you kidding me? there is nothing political about my post. it is all financial and the question is about (financial/economic) recovery post virus.
but do tell, what side of the political aisle wants low interest rates? i'm interested to know this.
your post is lacking a lot in substance.
other than saying US economy was doing "great", why don't you expand on that with some data?
are you kidding me? there is nothing political about my post. it is all financial and the question is about (financial/economic) recovery post virus.
but do tell, what side of the political aisle wants low interest rates? i'm interested to know this.
your post is lacking a lot in substance.
other than saying US economy was doing "great", why don't you expand on that with some data?
btw, I am the OP that created this thread.
I know you are the OP which is why I am so surprised...there are some good comments on China here, why did you create this thread and then asking about the US? There is an economics forum if you so wish and you will probably get the same results below...
But OK, I'll take the bait, I think I know the unfortunate direction this is going to take, but let me summarize y/e 2019:
GDP growing 2-3% a year
Unemployment at 50 year low, at 3.5% (other employment metrics, i.e. involuntary part time workers, also at historic low rates.
Labor Force Participation, athough not at all time high, was strong (greatest increase incidentally was in health care workers, not exactly entry level workers). Job opening rates at almost 5%, with the hire rate a full percentage below...i.e. companies were struggling to find employees.
Average wage (household income) increased from $62,626 to $63,179 in the year.
Percentage earning under poverty level decreasing (12.3% to 11.8%) in the year.
The net worth of American households grew 58% from the recession low of $68 trillion ($577,000 per household) in the first quarter of 2009, to $107 trillion ($881,000 per household) in the second quarter of 2019, inflation-adjusted
Stock Market - obvious...historic highs
Corporate profits at near historic highs at 9.5%(I know to some, strangely, that's a bad thing).
The above represents one of the longest periods of prosperity in US history. Was a downturn likely regardless of COVID19? Probably, these things are cyclical. Did everyone benefit from the boom economy? Of course not, that would be impossible, there are winners and losers in each economy. What's important is there were more winners than losers, as the metrics show. Metrics can lie sure, but the difference is these metrics don't change...they are apples to apples comparisons to previous periods. None of this "but I just created this metric and it shows this....".
Interest rates, not sure I understand your question and again I have to question if I have to explain economics 101 to you. Everyone should want low interest rates, it's not a "party" issue, except when the economy overheats, thus creating inflation. Interest rates are a fed tool, an independent quasi-government agency. Low rates are good in that they promote borrowing and further growth. Inflation has remained low, so low rates are good except for maybe those dealing in bonds. Hey, maybe the guys in the economics forum can help you out with any questions you have.
I know you are the OP which is why I am so surprised...there are some good comments on China here, why did you create this thread and then asking about the US? There is an economics forum if you so wish and you will probably get the same results below...
But OK, I'll take the bait, I think I know the unfortunate direction this is going to take, but let me summarize y/e 2019:
GDP growing 2-3% a year
Unemployment at 50 year low, at 3.5% (other employment metrics, i.e. involuntary part time workers, also at historic low rates.
Labor Force Participation, athough not at all time high, was strong (greatest increase incidentally was in health care workers, not exactly entry level workers). Job opening rates at almost 5%, with the hire rate a full percentage below...i.e. companies were struggling to find employees.
Average wage (household income) increased from $62,626 to $63,179 in the year.
Percentage earning under poverty level decreasing (12.3% to 11.8%) in the year.
The net worth of American households grew 58% from the recession low of $68 trillion ($577,000 per household) in the first quarter of 2009, to $107 trillion ($881,000 per household) in the second quarter of 2019, inflation-adjusted
Stock Market - obvious...historic highs
Corporate profits at near historic highs at 9.5%(I know to some, strangely, that's a bad thing).
The above represents one of the longest periods of prosperity in US history. Was a downturn likely regardless of COVID19? Probably, these things are cyclical. Did everyone benefit from the boom economy? Of course not, that would be impossible, there are winners and losers in each economy. What's important is there were more winners than losers, as the metrics show. Metrics can lie sure, but the difference is these metrics don't change...they are apples to apples comparisons to previous periods. None of this "but I just created this metric and it shows this....".
I asked about the US so I could do a comparison and get a picture of what might be headed our way, since China is 2 months ahead of where we are. you are the one that said the US was doing "great" before the virus.
-GDP was flatlining or declining.
-unemployment numbers are not accurately accounting for the underemployed and those who stopped looking. we have a larger gig and part time economy now so hours worked, which is what matters, were lower. trump called the job numbers fake when he was campaigning for president and they are just as fake now that he is in office.
-great, household income not even keeping up with inflation, which by the way is also intentionally manipulated to make things seem rosier.
-household net worth grew because housing and stocks were in a bubble. and hello? stock buybacks?
-corporate profits were declining, not rising. and tax cuts helped to get them where they were
explain why auto sales declined, PMI declined, commodity prices declined, consumer sentiment declined.
did you completely ignore huge liquidity issues and the repo markets?
if the economy is doing so well, why do we have record levels of debt in corporate, federal, local, personal, auto sectors?
why did our deficit increase in times of economic prosperity when it should be doing the opposite?
why did the markets take a nose dive when the fed tried to increase rates? why did they cut rate 3 times in 2019?
why are countries dumping US treasuries?
talk to me about the the yield curve inversion. why does the inversion predict 100% of the time?
Quote:
Interest rates, not sure I understand your question and again I have to question if I have to explain economics 101 to you. Everyone should want low interest rates, it's not a "party" issue, except when the economy overheats, thus creating inflation. Interest rates are a fed tool, an independent quasi-government agency. Low rates are good in that they promote borrowing and further growth. Inflation has remained low, so low rates are good except for maybe those dealing in bonds. Hey, maybe the guys in the economics forum can help you out with any questions you have.
as I said before, inflation numbers (CPI) have been manipulated. and we have had inflation - it just all went to investment assets like real estate and stock markets.
low interest rates are good only to allow people to borrow money on the cheap. it inflates bubbles. it allows people to spend beyond their means. we have been borrowing from our future to fund our lavish lifestyles for decades, making it seem like we've had prosperity and growth. everything has been debt fueled.
but then again, what do I know. i'm just an IT guy.
I know you are the OP which is why I am so surprised...there are some good comments on China here, why did you create this thread and then asking about the US? There is an economics forum if you so wish and you will probably get the same results below...
But OK, I'll take the bait, I think I know the unfortunate direction this is going to take, but let me summarize y/e 2019:
GDP growing 2-3% a year
Unemployment at 50 year low, at 3.5% (other employment metrics, i.e. involuntary part time workers, also at historic low rates.
Labor Force Participation, athough not at all time high, was strong (greatest increase incidentally was in health care workers, not exactly entry level workers). Job opening rates at almost 5%, with the hire rate a full percentage below...i.e. companies were struggling to find employees.
Average wage (household income) increased from $62,626 to $63,179 in the year.
Percentage earning under poverty level decreasing (12.3% to 11.8%) in the year.
The net worth of American households grew 58% from the recession low of $68 trillion ($577,000 per household) in the first quarter of 2009, to $107 trillion ($881,000 per household) in the second quarter of 2019, inflation-adjusted
Stock Market - obvious...historic highs
Corporate profits at near historic highs at 9.5%(I know to some, strangely, that's a bad thing).
The above represents one of the longest periods of prosperity in US history. Was a downturn likely regardless of COVID19? Probably, these things are cyclical. Did everyone benefit from the boom economy? Of course not, that would be impossible, there are winners and losers in each economy. What's important is there were more winners than losers, as the metrics show. Metrics can lie sure, but the difference is these metrics don't change...they are apples to apples comparisons to previous periods. None of this "but I just created this metric and it shows this....".
Interest rates, not sure I understand your question and again I have to question if I have to explain economics 101 to you. Everyone should want low interest rates, it's not a "party" issue, except when the economy overheats, thus creating inflation. Interest rates are a fed tool, an independent quasi-government agency. Low rates are good in that they promote borrowing and further growth. Inflation has remained low, so low rates are good except for maybe those dealing in bonds. Hey, maybe the guys in the economics forum can help you out with any questions you have.
awww c'mon econ major, I was expecting a long rebuttal from you. where you at brah? I see you active in other threads.
awww c'mon econ major, I was expecting a long rebuttal from you. where you at brah? I see you active in other threads.
Wow you are insistent, even a DM to my mail box. OK, you were polite enough.... I will give a response but, once again, why are we talking US finances in the Asian forum? You are self-destructing your own thread when your original topic focusing on China was actually or more interest. It's also a topic that will go nowhere - we won't get any agreement on it.
But here you go, my responses in red text:
Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblahyoutoo
-GDP was flatlining or declining. That is incorrect. GDP growth rate had been a healthy 2-3% every year since 2016 until the virus.
-unemployment numbers are not accurately accounting for the underemployed and those who stopped looking. we have a larger gig and part time economy now so hours worked, which is what matters, were lower. trump called the job numbers fake when he was campaigning for president and they are just as fake now that he is in office. Yes there are various measurements on unemployment maintained by BLS, they remain unchanged on how they are measured. All unemployment numbers show "improvement" prior to virus. There is no measurement that really measures a "gig" economy, there is not even really a definition. However, gig employment is not all bad - there are pros for an employee - getting to choose when to work and what to work, flexibility and variety. Trump comments during campaigning are irrelevant.
-great, household income not even keeping up with inflation, which by the way is also intentionally manipulated to make things seem rosier. That is incorrect, medium household income is up year after year since 2016 until virus.
-household net worth grew because housing and stocks were in a bubble. and hello? stock buybacks? Net worth includes all assets minus liabilities. So assets, savings, debt. Debt is down, assets are up. Why is that a bad thing? Stocks typically are held by only 50-60% of the population.
-corporate profits were declining, not rising. and tax cuts helped to get them where they were Partically correct. Corporate profits (after tax) in Q4 2019 were up 2.6% but neutral for the year. However the government publishes before tax profit numbers as well, those show an increase since 2018.
explain why auto sales declined, PMI declined, commodity prices declined, consumer sentiment declined.
did you completely ignore huge liquidity issues and the repo markets? those mostly seem industry specific rather than general economy - i.e auto sales, etc. Thus no comment.
if the economy is doing so well, why do we have record levels of debt in corporate, federal, local, personal, auto sectors? It's at highest levels but so is our population, so it's like obvious stuff related to population growth and unemployment lowering. But was not on as a drastic rate of increase as, for example, pre 2009 recession level. One way of looking at it is it reflects the confidence in the ecconomy pre-virus world. Much of it is in student loan debt which indeed is an issue.
why did our deficit increase in times of economic prosperity when it should be doing the opposite? It actually decreased about a billion dollars during Trumps first six months. In 2018 of course he gave a huge tax incentive to all taxpayers.
why did the markets take a nose dive when the fed tried to increase rates? why did they cut rate 3 times in 2019? The fed increases rates to slow down the economy and stem off inflation, and cuts rates to increase growth or when fear of inflation is none existent. Both actions worked as intended.
why are countries dumping US treasuries? No countries are dumping treasuries (bonds). US bonds are the safest in the world and are funding this stimuls packages. The feds buy back bonds to, once again, manipulate the economy to work more efficently.
talk to me about the the yield curve inversion. why does the inversion predict 100% of the time? Well, this was the big talk in summer of 2019...and guess what, fall failed to bring this huge cyclical recession that everyone thought would happen. So I would say it's not 100% predictive.
So understand I am not going to comment further. The topic really doesn't fit here and I am sure we will never see eye to eye on this.
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