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I believe their lockdown was more draconian and longer, but the citizens were more compliant.
how is their economy doing now that they've started to reopen?
here in the US, our lockdown hasn't gone on for as long although it's still far from over for the largest, most affected cities.
20 million have lost jobs or were furloughed and filed for unemployment. many cities are now protesting the lockdown. some looting has happened. food lines are forming.
I'd like some insight from those in asia that went through this before we did, especially china to see how their economy fared after reopening?
how are their unemployment numbers? how many businesses closed for good? were there riots and food lines?
what type of govt bailout did they receive as individuals and SMB?
I believe their lockdown was more draconian and longer, but the citizens were more compliant.
how is their economy doing now that they've started to reopen?
here in the US, our lockdown hasn't gone on for as long although it's still far from over for the largest, most affected cities.
20 million have lost jobs or were furloughed and filed for unemployment. many cities are now protesting the lockdown. some looting has happened. food lines are forming.
I'd like some insight from those in asia that went through this before we did, especially china to see how their economy fared after reopening?
how are their unemployment numbers? how many businesses closed for good? were there riots and food lines?
what type of govt bailout did they receive as individuals and SMB?
I'm not in Asia, but from my viewpoint China economy was in trouble before the crises, and it's even worse now. But they keep numbers close to the vest. You can google it and get the best guess - I have and read some analysis, it's not pretty. They have huge economic issues.
China don't do "bailouts". Of course, most big companies in China are really shell companies to the government, they are the government. Not sure about small businesses (of which indeed there are many). Unemployment - who really knows. China has a way of overemploying - i.e. hiring 10 people to do a job that 1 person can do.
I have heard nothing about riots of food lines in China...or anywhere in the world really.
I believe their lockdown was more draconian and longer, but the citizens were more compliant.
how is their economy doing now that they've started to reopen?
here in the US, our lockdown hasn't gone on for as long although it's still far from over for the largest, most affected cities.
20 million have lost jobs or were furloughed and filed for unemployment. many cities are now protesting the lockdown. some looting has happened. food lines are forming.
I'd like some insight from those in asia that went through this before we did, especially china to see how their economy fared after reopening?
how are their unemployment numbers? how many businesses closed for good? were there riots and food lines?
what type of govt bailout did they receive as individuals and SMB?
I'm in one of the wealthiest parts of one of China's wealthiest cities, so the perception here will be somewhat skewed - during the height (low?) of the lockdown, wealthy kids were taking advantage of relatively-deserted streets and preoccupied authorities to race their Ferraris, AMG's, and M's up and down the main boulevard.
The first few weeks, there was panic buying, so it was hard to find meat, veggies, and more popular canned goods. Many restaurants were still closed. You couldn't find masks, hand sanitizer, or soap anywhere. We opened our shops for delivery on Jan 30, but were among the first foreign shops to do so; there were a few who had tried initially to stay open per normal but all were shut down. Some fast food places such as McDonald's, Kungfu Noodles (a Chinese chain), some local shops, etc were allowed to stay open.
By late Feb, probably 2/3rds of restaurants and grocery/convenience stores were open again. In the next couple weeks, most places opened back up; however, at the same time, more places were shutting down. Since then, four foreign food restuarants around us have closed, along with at least 20 or so local ones (noodles, BBQ's, etc). Three of the foreign places that closed were long-established, award-winning places in prime locations, which had high overhead and multiple partners to please. One large, independently-owned grocery store shut, as well as three convenience stores, one of which was actually quite busy most of the time. I'd say that more than half have signs in the windows noting that the business is for sale; usually, that is a precursor to the shop closing outright, after maybe a month or two. In this economy, the chances of selling the business are quite slim. The business owner will want 100-500k RMB to transfer; the landlord will turn around and lease the space with remaining equipment for 50-200k in the first couple months; eventually, they'll do an even lower or no transfer just to get it rented again. A good number of newly-vacant shops in prime spaces already have signs that advertise no transfer fees.
So, when I walk down the street here, I see a surprising number of vacant shops, plus a fair number of places that had been rented and started decoration before the virus, which are now sitting unfinished. Lots of locals are moving back to hometowns or smaller cities where they bought property. One of my wife's uncles bought a stake in a supermarket here in SZ a year or so ago, but sold his share back to the other partners at a loss and is back in their hometown (much to his teenage kids' chagrin; they prefered living in the big city). Official numbers are hard to come by and always much sunnier than the reality; I can definitely tell you things are different. Things have not properly "rebounded" and the sense of normalcy that seemed to have returned is slowly revealing itself to be the proverbial "new normal."
thanks, doesn't sound sound like it bodes well for us in the states.
It's bad. But the difference perhaps in our favor is that the U.S. economy was great BEFORE the virus, while the Chinese economy has serious problems even before the virus.
It's bad. But the difference perhaps in our favor is that the U.S. economy was great BEFORE the virus, while the Chinese economy has serious problems even before the virus.
Yes indeed.... hoping that means a return to at least a decent job market for us in the near future here in the U.S. and that most businesses are able to come out the other side and survive.
Yes indeed.... hoping that means a return to at least a decent job market for us in the near future here in the U.S. and that most businesses are able to come out the other side and survive.
For the stimulus "bail out" package? Mostly economies including the US borrow money - issue bonds and so forth - we really don't print money (the fed does, both "prints" and "unprints" money, but for different reasons). Of course borrowing has it's own issues.
Keep in mind that one of China's major problems is that while it has enjoyed the status of "the world's manufacturing floor" for at least two decades, it's also got a 300% total debt to GDP ratio (the US' 105%). So, while it can be said that the Fed is printing money or that our economy is based too much on debt, China's situation is far from enviable; it went on a debt binge to stimulate itself out of the 08 crisis and come out ahead. The interceding decade saw more of the same, as individual households, private enterprises, and also local, provincial, and the federal government went on borrowing sprees to attain its "economic miracle."
With this reality, its reluctance to pass a massive stimulus package is perhaps in better focus (many people seem to think that China operates on a wide surplus and is sitting on an enormous dragon hoard of wealth). Their fear is that were they to take on another enormous block of debt, the negative effects on the economy would be worse than allowing a (controlled) natural correction to hollow out some of the excess.
Per above posts: the US' economy was quite strong before the reality of COVID in the US hit; though there are record numbers of jobless people (and even more who are simply not working right now), the stock market is only 16% off its record high and 29% above its low as of writing. Ironically, if these numbers were China's, I have no doubt that most articles would be fawning over China's might and resilience, saying that it had handily won this battle. Since 08, the world has largely come to accept China's seemingly-limitless growth and to an extent expects it to continue to rise unabated and unchallenged. The world media has come to be much more metered when talking of the US; there have been a plethora of articles predicting America's demise from any one of a number of headwinds for ages and it seems that many have internalized the narrative that America is (to quote a recent, popular article) a "failed state," while China is poised to dominate the century.
Granted, the crisis is not over yet, and it doesn't have a clear expiration date. I'm of the opinion that, while the crisis is far from over, there are good chances that the US will rebound more quickly than anticipated, and most likely step-by-step. I don't believe in a Trumpian "miracle," so much as I see a large number of financial entities, corporations, funds, and individuals who still have money and are eager to resume business as normal. Of course, the longer that the pandemic drags on, the more monetary losses, and thus the less cash on hand to put back into the economy. So, we'll have to wait and see, sadly.
China's economy was already trending downwards and pretty much all attempts to stimulate the economy were falling flat; after the coronavirus, it has been more of the same, and these failures have probably also contributed to their reluctance to engage in more. China's backbone is still manufacturing and industry, and that's been moving abroad for the last few years. Despite claims otherwise, its domestic service sector is not as mature as the US' or other countries, and while it will absolutely soften the blow from the recession to some extent, it won't float it through. China is also facing social and diplomatic headwinds abroad and a looming demographic crisis at home, which is not mirrored for the US; however, the US is facing an upcoming election which will undoubtedly prove contentious and divisive at a time where it needs unity.
Here in Taiwan we’ve never had any lockdowns or sheltering in place. Taiwan is one of only three countries where schools at all levels have remained open throughout the pandemic. Businesses including restaurants are open and functioning normally. The only real fallout is industries that are dependent on tourism are hurting because the border is closed to all but citizens and legal residents.
Yesterday we had zero new cases of coronavirus nationally. This is becoming the norm. There have been 6 deaths total from the coronavirus so far in a country of 24 million, with the last death occurring a month ago.
The reason is Taiwan went on a crash course early on to ramp up production of surgical and N95 face masks and 95% of the public have been wearing them voluntarily. The government also mandated their use on all forms of public transportation because, in a country as densely populated as Taiwan, social distancing is near impossible.
This created a Great Wall of PPE which so far has resisted everything the coronavirus has thrown at it. A second line of defense was erected in the form of hand sanitizers everywhere in public so it’s relatively easy to keep one’s hands disinfected. Mandatory quarantining of returning citizens and residents has snared most of the cases of coronavirus acquired elsewhere.
The result is life has continued at near normal levels here the entire time.
Last edited by mathlete; 04-26-2020 at 05:14 PM..
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