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"the United States has provided $1.5 billion in security assistance, including everything from Humvees and patrol boats to counterartillery radar and lethal weaponry such as Javelin antitank missiles."
That's 1.5 BILLION in FREE Spetsnaz-killing hardware.
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Is 1.5 billion enough to compensate for Crimea? If Ukraine is happy with that, they could've just told Russia, who would have gladly paid it to avoid all the hassles.
However you slice it, US has been eating its words left and right. And for good reasons. US will only take on countries it for sure can defeat with minimal casualty. The moment risk of real casualty emerges, any government will be in the LBJ situation. Taking on Russia - no chance.
A long, bloody war between Taiwan and China is unlikely. There are many joint business ventures on both sides of the Strait, 1 million+ Taiwanese living on the Mainland, a shared Han Chinese population in both, etc.
Beijing doesn´t have the stomach to destroy the island that it considers so sacred. What would probably happen is a "shock and awe" campaign where they bomb the hell out of select targets and then see if the Taiwanese will to fight is broken. If it is, then the "Chinese occupation in days" situation that some of you mentioned is feasible. If the resolve remains, then yes, there may be other countries involved, and it wouldn´t be pretty. Also keep in mind that in addition to the economic and cultural ties between the two sides, Taiwan won´t be easy to land on and take-- the few beach heads that are available are heavily fortified. They have a growing and deadly arsenal of missiles that can reach as far as Beijing and rain down on civilian centers, if Taipei is so inclined to do so.
I'd say of all countries India should be the last to chime in on this, even though they have incentive to. Taiwan to China is like Kashmir to India. India has its own glass house to protect.
Also a (important) correction on the video - the Capital of Republic of China is not Taipei.
Interesting assessment. But it lacks details on exactly how PRC would get boots on the ground. The article mentions amphibious forces including fishing vessels? I wasn't even sure if I read that right - fishing vessels?
China has a sizable force, not sure of there landing capabilities (you would need something to move it's "heavies" by the way - APC's, tanks, artillery). And they really don't even have aircraft carriers yet.
Google CCP fishing militias. I believe a potential invasion exists. The CCP took advantage of their Wuhan virus' devastating economic cost to the world. While the world is still reeling from the Wuhan virus impact, the CCP has been flexing their military might in the region. They got a taste of victory in HK when the rest of the world basically did nothing to stop them. Taiwan is next.
There have been some videos on the internet showing CCP military equipment breaking down. And the responses have been as expected: China's military is weak; made in China; they can't fight with broken stuff; etc., etc.
I believe this is disinformation by the CCP to make the world think that China's military is weak and therefore incapable of invading anyone. Then BAM surprise MOFOs.
It depends on which side is in power in the US. Trump would be more receptive to intervening than Biden would. I think Biden, just like other institutions in the US, such as the Hollywood entertainment industry, the NBA, and large portions of big tech are bought and paid for by China.
Even Trump would be hesitant to step in. Not saying he wouldn’t, but he’d think long and hard about it. Biden (Biden’s handlers as Biden himself is mentally not there) likely wouldn’t even think about helping at all.
But let’s not worry too much on this. Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for 70 years. They are dug in like you wouldn’t even believe. It would be very, very difficult for China to take the island.
That isn’t China’s M.O. anyway. They think long term and they are very patient. They’d rather wait 200 years and take Taiwan peacefully then press the issue now and lose potentially hundreds of thousands of lives and spend an incredible amount of capital. At the end of all that fighting, it would be just like the US-Vietnam joke. “We liberated the village by destroying it all and killing everyone”.
I'd say of all countries India should be the last to chime in on this, even though they have incentive to. Taiwan to China is like Kashmir to India. India has its own glass house to protect.
Also a (important) correction on the video - the Capital of Republic of China is not Taipei.
tawain is nothing like kashmir. Tawain is a democracy. Kashmir has jihadists. Tawain would possibly with china if it was democratic. In kashmir, you have people trying to impose sharia and turn india into iran like after the fall of the sassanids.
I tend to think that it wouldn't. Not only is the US boggled down by wars in the Middle East but Taiwan's democracy and independence are (sadly) not worth starting such a large scale and potentially nuclear war with a gigantic country like China....not to mention all the political and economic consequences that it would entail.
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