If China annex Taiwan by force, will US intervene MILITARILY? (best, country)
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There is a belief that the US will intervene militarily. However judging from what the US did in the HK situation, namely just treat HK the same as China and canceling all privileges enjoyed by HK -- which equates screwing HKers a second time -- perhaps the Taiwan questions deserves reevaluation.
I think with good preparation and the surprise element, China can probably win control of the island in 3-5 days. At that time US is probably still debating what to do. So what is US likely to do in that scenario?
The President has the power to take military action without congressional approval in that case.
Maybe Trump will call his former good friend emperor Xi to make a great deal because nobody knows military/taiwan better than him. Don't forget Russia isn't an ally to China, Russia is also on Trump's side. Maybe emperor Putin will annex China while emperor Xi is trying to conquer Taiwan.
But what if Trump loses the election? The U.S will lose Putin as a good friend! Beijing Biden will let China conquer Taiwan and force Americans to learn Chinese?
Okay, I know what I said isn't logical. But the current administration is anything but logical.
The current administration stand on this, which you can interpret as yes US would go to war to defend Taiwan. By the way, Taiwan won't be a pushover for China. They have been preparing for a China invasion for half a century and are well armed with the best high tech US weapons:
"Our relations will continue to be based upon the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act, and we affirm the Six Assurances given to Taiwan in 1982 by President Reagan. We oppose any unilateral steps by either side to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Straits on the principle that all issues regarding the island’s future must be resolved peacefully, through dialogue, and be agreeable to the people of Taiwan. If China were to violate those principles, the United States, in accord with the Taiwan Relations Act, will help Taiwan defend itself... "
However, Peoples Republic of China has no reason, nor desire, to upset the status quo at the current time or the forseeable future. So your scenario is non-existent regardless. Likewise, the "HK" situation can in no way be connected or compared to any scenario involving Taiwan.
There is a belief that the US will intervene militarily. However judging from what the US did in the HK situation, namely just treat HK the same as China and canceling all privileges enjoyed by HK -- which equates screwing HKers a second time -- perhaps the Taiwan questions deserves reevaluation.
I think with good preparation and the surprise element, China can probably win control of the island in 3-5 days. At that time US is probably still debating what to do. So what is US likely to do in that scenario?
It isn't a parallel comparison because US and Taiwan are military allies and the US has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars to protect Taiwan. HK has never had its own military.
That said, I actually do agree that China could completely control the island in just a few days and that it's possible they do so before the US can even respond. Here is a plausible scenario outlined by Admiral Winnefeld that describes exactly that. It was coincidentally published just last week:
The Hong Kong situation is different from Taiwan. Hong Kong was the pearl of China, but under British rule. There was an agreement to hand it over that is completely outside of the US. While the US is idealogically closer to Hong Kong than Beijing, it really has no proxy to overextend itself in that conflict.
Taiwan is different. The US has placated Beijing over the years, betting the farm that increased capitalism would eventually allow mainland to voluntarily dismantle its Communist shell, but this has backfired to significant dismay. The US has begun selling arms to Taiwan. Expect this to continue and increase.
The US will protect Taiwan militarily. It will then sweep China from the seas and do what it needs in order to clip the imperialistic ambitions. Politically it will give leadership here a reason to also purge socialist element infecting the country. No doubt the cold war machine still exists. Someone just needs to turn it back on.
It isn't a parallel comparison because US and Taiwan are military allies and the US has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars to protect Taiwan. HK has never had its own military.
That said, I actually do agree that China could completely control the island in just a few days and that it's possible they do so before the US can even respond. Here is a plausible scenario outlined by Admiral Winnefeld that describes exactly that. It was coincidentally published just last week:
Interesting assessment. But it lacks details on exactly how PRC would get boots on the ground. The article mentions amphibious forces including fishing vessels? I wasn't even sure if I read that right - fishing vessels?
China has a sizable force, not sure of there landing capabilities (you would need something to move it's "heavies" by the way - APC's, tanks, artillery). And they really don't even have aircraft carriers yet.
Interesting assessment. But it lacks details on exactly how PRC would get boots on the ground. The article mentions amphibious forces including fishing vessels? I wasn't even sure if I read that right - fishing vessels?
China has a sizable force, not sure of there landing capabilities (you would need something to move it's "heavies" by the way - APC's, tanks, artillery). And they really don't even have aircraft carriers yet.
I have no way of truly assessing the likelihood of this event. I will say I have two friends in the US DoD ranks (one of whom sent me that article) who do express a lot of concern about our desire to relocate to Taiwan next year. Doesn't necessarily mean too much but yeah. Fwiw I also have a friend who is a highly recognized scholar in international relations and is based in Taipei, and she has no worries of this sort. At least not in a last-second out of the blue fashion. So two counter views.
Anyway, with that said, I actually believe the PRC already has tons of boots on the ground in the ROC. I do not doubt that perspective.
I have no way of truly assessing the likelihood of this event. I will say I have two friends in the US DoD ranks (one of whom sent me that article) who do express a lot of concern about our desire to relocate to Taiwan next year. Doesn't necessarily mean too much but yeah. Fwiw I also have a friend who is a highly recognized scholar in international relations and is based in Taipei, and she has no worries of this sort. At least not in a last-second out of the blue fashion. So two counter views.
Anyway, with that said, I actually believe the PRC already has tons of boots on the ground in the ROC. I do not doubt that perspective.
Boots on the ground - the "little green men" that Russia excels at? I am not sure China follows those tactics, but maybe.
My limited understanding is that while there is no official defense pact between the US and Taiwan, past policy of US governments is to remain ambivalent. The official policy is to discourage China from invading Taiwan, but at the same time not to recognize Taiwan as an independent country, just stuck in a shadowy limbo status that is to be maintained until either the two countries re unite or China decides to let Taiwan go (unlikely).
Sad thing is if Taiwan had decided in 1949 to just declare independence, they probably would have achieved it. China was weakened after both the second world war and their own civil way between the communists and chiang kai shek. The US was fresh off defeating Japan and was at an all time power high. However the Taiwanese still thought that they would one day regain mainland China. So the opportunity was lost, and now they are fighting a losing battle to remain independent, as I think the endgame is that as China continues to grown both economically and militarily, eventually the US will decide it's not worth the sacrifice to keep protecting Taiwan and leave the to their fate. Or maybe China will be able to use economic power to force Taiwan back into the fold. Time will tell.
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