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Location: Whatcom County, WA/Cherokee County, NC/Pike County, KY
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When India officially overtakes China as the most populated, do you think China will lose influence? For a long time people regarded China as big and influential just by their size alone. Will that change when India reaches way beyond China? When do you think India will have more people, 1 year, 5 years, or already?
When India officially overtakes China as the most populated, do you think China will lose influence? For a long time people regarded China as big and influential just by their size alone. Will that change when India reaches way beyond China? When do you think India will have more people, 1 year, 5 years, or already?
India has a substantially higher fertility rate.
Not a chance with the current political climate in India. Indian politics are all over the place and there’s a ton of tribalism leading to regular sectarian violence. China by contrast, is a lot more stable internally and they don’t have the same issues, though there’s obviously the stuff going on in Xinjiang. Seeing as both of them are nuclear powers (worth mentioning Pakistan as well), that should serve as a deterrent to any large conflict. Expect some regional clashed to occur from time to time along the border, as it’s been going on for 70 years.
If you include Pakistan and Bangladesh the subcontinental population already exceeds China's. I don't expect the three countries there to coordinate action in any meaningful way (lol), but when comparing populations of historical civilizations the Indian civilization already exceeds the Chinese civilization.
India has difficulties with internal squabbling and a lot of corruption, and that doesn't go away solely on account of having more people. That's definitely something they'll have to deal with. The other major issues are less than cordial relations with some neighbors and very intense pollution in many areas which will have large future ramifications for the country. What could be to India's benefit is a relatively large proportion of younger people and an increasingly wealthy and influential diaspora. I wouldn't say this is necessarily competition for China as it would be for other developing countries with that profile like parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. One interesting thing that could happen with a networked world that is basically divided into linguistic spheres and the propagation of English as a common neutral language with economic benefits in India is that I think the English-language Internet will steadily see a rising tide of a lot more Indian content and users throughout the Anglosphere.
If you include Pakistan and Bangladesh the subcontinental population already exceeds China's. I don't expect the three countries there to coordinate action in any meaningful way (lol), but when comparing populations of historical civilizations the Indian civilization already exceeds the Chinese civilization.
That’s true. Pakistan already has well over 200 million people and Bangladesh is at 170 million +.
The thing with India is it is much less homogenous or more fractionalized than China. They never should have been one country. They are so many different groups. They only brought together by an even more foreign power, GB.
So whatever increase in population will just mean more ethnic strife and conflict. They will be competing for fewer and fewer resources, and land. Where as the Chinese is more unified, or more similar goals. Not that China does not have different groups. But at least they have been together for much longer.
The thing with India is it is much less homogenous or more fractionalized than China. They never should have been one country. They are so many different groups. They only brought together by an even more foreign power, GB.
So whatever increase in population will just mean more ethnic strife and conflict. They will be competing for fewer and fewer resources, and land. Where as the Chinese is more unified, or more similar goals. Not that China does not have different groups. But at least they have been together for much longer.
I think it should have been a looser union that still included at least Pakistan and Bangladesh and at least started with more decentralized power.
More like the Chinese simply cleanse the other ethnic groups.
How? Under Mao, the minorities not even have to follow one child policy. There are affirmative action laws in China. They even officially are more lenient towards minorities for crimes they commit then they are to Han. Population and life expectancy has grown for both Uyghurs, and Tibetans. Two minorities which are often the most cited as being ethnically cleansed.
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