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The number of American casualties is not indicative of American aid to Taiwan and the deterrent factor it had on the PRC. Indeed, the US support largely came via blockading the Taiwan Strait and via military support to Taiwan to include superior missile and aircraft capability, not via the involvement of US troops for the most part. That the fighting forces were primarily Taiwanese doesn't take away from this point. I'm curious, though, do you have any historical analysis to support that the US did not play a key role in preventing the PRC from making more aggressive moves toward Taiwan? The link I provided is well-sourced.
I am not saying that US did not play a key role in preventing the PRC from making more aggressive, I am saying that even if US helped a lot less, Mao would still not be able to invade Taiwan due to the poor state of the navy and air forces. Without US active support, he probably would have attempted a large invasion, but it would have failed.
In fact the PLA failed before US support too, in 1949 PLA tried to invade Kinmen but their army got destroyed. Not only did they lack the naval resources, but they also did not bring enough resources because they expected to win in one day.
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The PLA did have an opportunity to approach Taiwan before 1950, true. This article details some of what went down there. https://nationalinterest.org/feature...e-taiwan-22752 From this perspective, it had zero to do with naval capability (but, again, I'd be interested in reading evidence that supports your position) and centered on a spy ring collapse and subsequent events (to include the outbreak of the Korean War).
Even if they did manage to get troops to rebel through their spy ring, they would still need an intital force that the rebels can join. No matter what, they would need a navy.
I do think it was possible strategy, but by 1950 Taiwan had discovered the spy ring and that window of opportunity was gone. After 1950 they would need a strong navy and air force if they wanted to invade Taiwan, and PLA didn't have that.
Even if they did manage to use fishing boats or something to get large amount of troops over to Taiwan, they would still not be able to provide the resources to the PLA army. Since they did not have that, the PLA would start looting poor Taiwanese farmers to get a short term supply of food, but at the expense of making themselves an enemy to everyone on the island. Taiwanese would then ambush them wherever they went and destroy their farms before they arrived. It would not take long before the PLA run out of food and ammo.
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Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident
And the Hainan Island battle involved hundreds of thousands of PLA troops and ROC troops combined. Just like occurred on the mainland China toward the end of the civil war, the PRC defeated the ROC on Hainan Island (again, before US intervention). Again, to your point about the straits crises, Hainan Island is farther away from mainland China than the islands involved in the straits crises are.
I am not saying it was impossible for the PLA to take those islands, but their inability to take those islands show that Mao would lose if he tried to invade Taiwan after 1950.
Hainan involved thousands of troops, but it was not fortified, it was closer than Taiwan and the Nationalists did not have the support of the population living in Hainan.
The only way China takes Taiwan is if they use nuclear blackmail. And that would be risking everything for them. I don't see that as more than a 1% chance of being attempted.
The distance between Xiamen and Kinmen is awfully close. Before the pandemic, I rode by ferry from Xiamen to Kinmen. The trip merely took 20 minutes.
Nowadays PLA has no problem in taking these two clusters of islands (Kinmen and Matsu). And in fact, Taiwan has pulled back most of its military and merely placed symbolic forces on both islands. Probably only thousands. But the question is why does PLA want to capture them?
The scenario between Hainan and Taiwan are quite different in 1950. Such as:
(1) Taiwan Strait is much wider than the Qiongzhou Strait that separates Hainan and Mainland China. The former is 110 miles at the shortest while the latter is merely 12 miles. Moreover, Taiwan Strait is notorious in its rough water. Can PLA conduct a successful amphibious operation? I seriously doubt it. Definitely not in 1950, 1960, 1990, and not even today.
(2) Chiang never really meant to take a strong stand on Hainan. The forces that guarded Hainan was not Chiang's elite troops and numbered around only 70,000. On the other hand, the troops that guarded Taiwan were about 200,000+ in 1950.
(3). The most important point is that since 1930s, Hainan had been an active CCP insurgent base. On the contrary, ironically due to Japanese colonial rule for 50 years, there were almost close to nil CCP sympathizers on Taiwan in 1950.
In retrospect, if the 7th fleet were to cruise Tonkin Gulf in 1950 and deter PLA from taking Hainan (which is difficult due to close proximity), the outcome of Vietnam War might be different.
Taiwan,Macao,Hong Kong will all become part of China.
Some days,their children and the children's children will attend Chinese universities instead of U of C,in Berkeley,CA.
Taiwan,Macao,Hong Kong will all become part of China.
Some days,their children and the children's children will attend Chinese universities instead of U of C,in Berkeley,CA.
But folks from the mainland already attend U of C, etc. (in addition to mainland Chinese schools). And Macao and Hong Kong are already part of China. Nobody seriously disputes that. The only question is how much autonomy China will allow both special administrative regions to have.
define autonomy.
One common trait of human nature is that we all want to do what we like to do,but when we run into problem,we cry no one cares about us!
There are pros and cons of being part of a larger economy,one must evaluate the situation and figure where he fits in .
What I dont understand is Puerto Rico,when will it become a state,Hawaii is a state?
define autonomy.
One common trait of human nature is that we all want to do what we like to do,but when we run into problem,we cry no one cares about us!
There are pros and cons of being part of a larger economy,one must evaluate the situation and figure where he fits in .
What I dont understand is Puerto Rico,when will it become a state,Hawaii is a state?
Fair question.
I was just referring to some level of political and economic freedom from the Central PRC government as was agreed to when those cities were returned to China.
I'll touch on Puerto Rican statehood just as an analogy to the autonomy discussion regarding Taiwan v. Hong Kong v. Macau. Puerto Rico is more akin to Hong Kong and Macau as the US exercises complete control over the territory (just like China does for Hong Kong and Macau), even if the US lets the Puerto Rico government has significant day to day autonomy over the Island's affairs.
Taiwan is a completely different situation, because while the PRC claims Taiwan as its territory and the overwhelming majority of the worlds' governments acknowledge that there is only one China that is represented by the PRC, the PRC doesn't actually exercise legal jurisdiction/control over Taiwan. If the PRC acts on some of its threats and invades/controls Taiwan, I wouldn't expect Taiwan to be a special administrative region as the PRC would not have to negotiate with other countries for a turnover as it did with Hong Kong and Macau, but rather I'd expect the PRC to have a direct hand in governing Taiwan and working swiftly to incorporate Taiwan into mainland China, even if such a change would be slow from a cultural difference perspective alone.
Even under the pandemic when nobody knows what time will regular flight resume between China and U.S., Chinese students are still crazy about top U.S. universities.
Applicants from China for admission into Harvard increased by 57% this year, MIT by 62% and Yale by 38%.
Even top Chinese students don't want to attend Chinese universities. Who wants to waste precious time to take Marx theory as a mandatory course in college?
Taiwan,Macao,Hong Kong will all become part of China.
Some days,their children and the children's children will attend Chinese universities instead of U of C,in Berkeley,CA.
Chinese universities is mainly lagging behind due their own policies. They could easily have a top world university today if they had different policies.
They could
1. Have a lot more english taught courses and hire more foreign professors.
2. Allow full academic freedom when it doesn't cross any red lines.
3. Remove uneccesary visa requirements such as police registration.
4. Create a VPN that foreigners can use in China. I know it is easy to do yourself, but the average person can't get bothered.
If they do this, then top talent is much more likely to want to teach and study at top universities in China. This is something China could do now without any risk to the CCP. The only thing that is preventing it from happening is the insular mindset of the current leadership.
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Originally Posted by Ian_Lee
Even under the pandemic when nobody knows what time will regular flight resume between China and U.S., Chinese students are still crazy about top U.S. universities.
Applicants from China for admission into Harvard increased by 57% this year, MIT by 62% and Yale by 38%.
Isn't it down like 90% in 2020, hence a 57% increase in 2021 is still much lower than 2019?
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The link I provided is well-sourced.
