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Originally Posted by Ice_Major
China has poor relations says who, those public opinion polls. Keep in mind the polls are conducted by Western media sources and are geared towards the general public, not the actual decision makers. Doesn't matter if the people have a poor opinion. What matters is what businesses do, and last I checked they are lining up to do business in China.
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Think again, lots of western companies are moving production out of China. Apple is moving production to Vietnam and India. Samsung shut its remaining factory in China in 2019. Google has abandoned its attempt to reenter China and has moved its production of Pixel phones to Vietnam. Clothing companies like Nike, Adidas, H&M are moving out due to rising costs and the Xinjiang issue. Zoom is stopping direct sales with China. Dell and HP are moving 30% of their production out of China.
Here is a more extensive list. It looks like nearly all western companies are planning to move manufacturing out of China.
https://www.lovemoney.com/gallerylis...g-out-of-china
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China doesn't have to worry about replacing 92% of the worlds GDP because 92% of the world is not going to stop training with them. To think otherwise is simply delusional.
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The detoriation in relations happened during the last years. Lots of business have not been able to find a replacement for China, or has not have enough time to put their plans into motion.
In addition, covid put a lot of plans on hold since it was not exactly easy to move production to for instance Vietnam during the middle of a lockdown, and China's response to covid gave some business optimism about Chinas economy.
But take a look at what has happened the last year. China forced Ant Group to overhaul its business structure and made Jack Ma disappear, destroyed its training centers, stopped its domestic travel industry, took down the Didi app, forced companies to donate away profit and stopped all IPOs in the USA. In addition, Evergrande is about to default which could cause a financial crisis. It is safe to say that the optimism about the Chinese economy is now gone and there is very little incentive for companies to manufacture in China over other places like Vietnam and India. If you don't believe me, take a look at what has happened to Chinese stocks since February, NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index has dropped by 45%.
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Can't comment on India, while they are just as large in population, that's about it. I will say, if India does commit to one side, they are going to be behind for a longtime.
Regarding Africa, keep believing "Africa will forever be poor" nonsense. I was recently on the continent and was amazed by the level of the development.
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Here we can see it again. You are dismissing Indias development, because it sided with the western world, while talking about how amazing Africas development is.
Here are some facts
- India has a larger GDP than Africa
- India has higher GDP growth than Africa
- India is significantly more stable than Africa
- India has reduced its birth rate to 2, while lots of African countries have out of control population growth.
If we look at african countries individually it is even worse. South Africa just had crazy riots and has seen unemployment increase to 34%. Nigeria has seen unemployment go from 6% to 33% in 6 years, its biggest city is just one big slum, and the population is already too big for its resources and is set to double by 2050. Both of them have seen a significant decrease in GDP per capita over the last 5 years.
There are a few African countries that are doing decent, but overall Africa is not doing great at all. India is likely to do a lot better, and China destroyed its relationship with India over 100 meters of territory. History shows that whenever China isolate itself from the west, it ends up with a broken economy and internal turmoil. It tried to isolate itself during the Qing dynasty, which caused the dynasty to collapse. Then it tried to isolate itself under Mao, which prevented China from growing its economy and caused massive destruction of its culture. China needs good relations with India, the EU and the United States to do well. It cannot replace them with Africa, because Africa does not have the dollars China needs.
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