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Chinese dynasties have collapsed numerous times over the last 5000 years. The CCP regime is still comparatively very young. It is even very young compared to the present United States government.
I'm not talking about ancient history. I'm talking about the mid-1950s and beyond, and these predictions pop up all the time about the imminent demise of China as a nation. Much of it is wishful thinking by armchair experts.
Chinese dynasties have collapsed numerous times over the last 5000 years. The CCP regime is still comparatively very young. It is even very young compared to the present United States government.
China does not have a integrated society, in spite of being nearly entirely Chinese. Sounds like a paradox, but it isn't. in addition, the Chinese are a very bigoted society.
I'm not talking about ancient history. I'm talking about the mid-1950s and beyond, and these predictions pop up all the time about the imminent demise of China as a nation. Much of it is wishful thinking by armchair experts.
The time period of the 1950's through today is the equivalent of a blip on a radar screen. China's rise in the 1980s and onward is heavily dependent on traditional globalization which is breaking down rapidly. Predictions from the 1950's to 1970s were wishful thinking but with the breakdown of globalization, I think predictions in the 2020s have more potential to come true.
It seems China wants to demise China, you know... like Taiwan and just like Hong Kong. China is on a similar track as the former Soviet Union.
China is the most globally reliant nation in the world, they can't produce enough food for their own population, they store grain in the street, don't have enough energy recourses, don't have a large enough consumer market for their own domestic production, their ONE child policy is coming back to hurt them since they are an old society, their covid policy is failing, so IMO China will not last long. Probably by 2040-50 they will collapse.
They could survive as a Nation of Chinese states, but not as a nation.
Latest news indicates that China is backing off some Covid restrictions in a few cities. But the pro democracy element of the protests remain. Stay tuned.
Chinese dynasties have collapsed numerous times over the last 5000 years. The CCP regime is still comparatively very young. It is even very young compared to the present United States government.
With technology and communications, the ccp can direct soldiers and police to such and such location, and threaten massive jail time if protesters are caught. This will silence many people. The dynasties of the past didnt have police cars, tanks, etc.
Many people will not want to lose everything, such as their job, education in the past, mortgage already paid, etc. All of that will be lost if they go to jail, it will be hard to get a job after they get out and their education is worthless by then. Unless the whole population is willing to get arrested and the government doesnt have the jail capacity to handle it, the ccp will not collapse.
I'm not talking about ancient history. I'm talking about the mid-1950s and beyond, and these predictions pop up all the time about the imminent demise of China as a nation. Much of it is wishful thinking by armchair experts.
As you pointed out, it's all wishful thinking at the end the day. Many of those predictions came near or after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. People (without any evidence) and failing (or just not caring) to account for East Asian culture dynamics. It's easy to make predictions. If one happens to luck out and get it right, he/she gets viewed as some sort of oracle. If you're wrong, people simply move on to the next so-called expert and their bogus unsubstantiated opinions.
People in Western countries have insecurities about the rise of China and take a sense of comfort in the idea of their eventual demise. Instead of choosing to outcompete China, they would rather tell themselves they merely need to exist, and fate will take care of the China. Hasn’t worked out yet, but so long as the insecurities remain, they will remain blind. Sad really.
I can't tell you how many predictions I've heard over the years...at least since the Mao days...of the collapse and demise of China.
Media always like to use words like collapse to grap headlines and its not exclusive to China. For instance, how often haven't you heard predictions about a collapse in the banking system when in reality it never collapses. There was also a lot of headlines predicting China to be the world top power in 2025 and that is not even close to happening.
However, Chinese have seen a significant decline in their living standards. For instance, Chinese are not going on vacations anymore, they are going out less, they have less access to buy things and are forced to volunteer more time to the government without any compensation. Wages compared to cost of living are probably down as well, but its hard to find relevant and recent data.
For instance, Chinese are not going on vacations anymore
And we are all very happy about that.
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