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LOL. The largest ship guns have a range of like 15 or 20 miles. Taiwan is 245 miles long and 90 miles wide. I don't see any scenario where PRC naval vessels pounds Taiwan coastal areas for weeks. That does not make sense for multiple reasons.
Listen, I think we agree on the politics of it all, but leave out the military strategizing.
How is Taiwan going to consistently sink boats that is 20 miles away after its military and civilian infrastructure has been destroyed?
And the PRC fleet is huge and keep getting bigger. Without any trouble from the USA, then I don't see why they would struggle to pounds Taiwan coastal areas for weeks.
How is Taiwan going to consistently sink boats that is 20 miles away after its military and civilian infrastructure has been destroyed?
And the PRC fleet is huge and keep getting bigger. Without any trouble from the USA, then I don't see why they would struggle to pounds Taiwan coastal areas for weeks.
OK let's continue to play.
I don't think you understand what the Chinese navy will be used for, or the basics of naval power at all, or the basics of military strategy at all. The navy will be there to support the actual invasion, to protect the landing crafts and other vessels, not too sit off the coast and bomb coastal areas (except for actual landing sites). They aren't designed for the purpose. What is PRC going to bomb the coastal cities for weeks when all the military installations are in the mountains out of range? Anyways will that accomplish exactly? All the damage to infrastructure can be done by PRC in a 24 or 48 hour massive strike of missiles and drones. And if not, then they can launch another barrage of drones and missiles or heavy bombers, not the fleet. They will surround the island no doubt in some sort of lead up to military hostilities.
But the military infrastructure of Taiwan won't be completely destroyed as they have already prepared for this. Taiwan has a vast supply of short and medium range missiles that can be fired from portable launchers (requiring little in terms of infrastructure). They will still have fighters launched from hardened sites with anti-ship missiles. They also have their own drones and even a few subs. To take these you need boots on the ground. China will need to get those on the ground fast and establish a beachhead (preferably with a port), and use the navy instead to protect that beachhead and the resupply of it.
How is Taiwan going to consistently sink boats that is 20 miles away after its military and civilian infrastructure has been destroyed?
And the PRC fleet is huge and keep getting bigger. Without any trouble from the USA, then I don't see why they would struggle to pounds Taiwan coastal areas for weeks.
As the Ukraine war has shown, it's possible to continue targeting ships even after large scale destruction of infrastructure. Mobile launching platforms, drones, and special operations (or terrorism depending upon perspective) are effective, though their extent is limited. I would imagine the U.S. would provide intelligence on ship whereabouts and weaknesses. If it ever gets to the point of amphibious landings or ships being parked off the coast, Taiwan is on the brink of collapse.
Isn't it fascinating that autocrats still think that enslaving the people of other countries, and taking their property is justified?
If governments were instituted among men to secure endowed rights from predators, few would object.
But most governments are operated to enrich some at the expense of the many. That is the underlying objection to be subject of another government, and skinned alive for their benefit.
In theory yes, but people also expect their government to ensure and in many cases create the conditions for prosperity. Unfortunately this means in the minds of many, enforcing one's will on other nations for sake of protecting or increasing prosperity. How many times have we heard leaders say "this is to protect our way of life."
I don't think you understand what the Chinese navy will be used for, or the basics of naval power at all, or the basics of military strategy at all. The navy will be there to support the actual invasion, to protect the landing crafts and other vessels, not too sit off the coast and bomb coastal areas (except for actual landing sites). They aren't designed for the purpose. What is PRC going to bomb the coastal cities for weeks when all the military installations are in the mountains out of range? Anyways will that accomplish exactly? All the damage to infrastructure can be done by PRC in a 24 or 48 hour massive strike of missiles and drones. And if not, then they can launch another barrage of drones and missiles or heavy bombers, not the fleet. They will surround the island no doubt in some sort of lead up to military hostilities.
But the military infrastructure of Taiwan won't be completely destroyed as they have already prepared for this. Taiwan has a vast supply of short and medium range missiles that can be fired from portable launchers (requiring little in terms of infrastructure). They will still have fighters launched from hardened sites with anti-ship missiles. They also have their own drones and even a few subs. To take these you need boots on the ground. China will need to get those on the ground fast and establish a beachhead (preferably with a port), and use the navy instead to protect that beachhead and the resupply of it.
Navys has many times been used to attack coastal defenses such as Battle of Inchon, D-day invasion and the Falkland war. The idea that Chinese ships are incapable of attacking Taiwan coastal defenses is nonsense. It is also nonsense that China will eliminate all targets in 24 to 48 hours. It will take months, not days.
And Taiwan will shoot with missles? You think China is just going to leave the missle supply and rocket sites alone? With no resupply, active shooting and missles getting destroyed by China, then Taiwan will quickly run out of missles.
Also, fighters need fuel. No infrastructure means fuel shortage, so the fighters will be grounded. They will also be easy target for Chinese missles and without any resupply then Taiwan's anti-missle defence won't work.
Navys has many times been used to attack coastal defenses such as Battle of Inchon, D-day invasion and the Falkland war. The idea that Chinese ships are incapable of attacking Taiwan coastal defenses is nonsense. It is also nonsense that China will eliminate all targets in 24 to 48 hours. It will take months, not days.
And Taiwan will shoot with missles? You think China is just going to leave the missle supply and rocket sites alone? With no resupply, active shooting and missles getting destroyed by China, then Taiwan will quickly run out of missles.
Also, fighters need fuel. No infrastructure means fuel shortage, so the fighters will be grounded. They will also be easy target for Chinese missles and without any resupply then Taiwan's anti-missle defence won't work.
LOL. I see you are backpeddling after I gave you a reality check of the size of Taiwan. How funny. "Coastal defenses" is a bit different from your original "navy gunfire will eliminate all of Taiwans infrastructure".
As I said the navy will be used to support the landing or protect the fleet, as was done for each of your examples you list, thus supporting my post.
As I said Taiwan missiles and fuel reserves will be in hardened bunker in the mountains, and launching platforms are portable and stealthy, thus supporting my post.
Let common sense take over. You still haven't answered why PRC would employ huge, slow moving, heavily manned, and expensive naval vessels to bomb the infrastructure of Taiwan when they can employ drones, missiles, or bombers to soften up ALL of Taiwan in these weeks or months you think are needed in preparation for a landing.
As I said the navy will be used to support the landing or protect the fleet, as was done for each of your examples you list, thus supporting my post.
As I said Taiwan missiles and fuel reserves will be in hardened bunker in the mountains, and launching platforms are portable and stealthy, thus supporting my post.
Is it so hard to admit you are wrong? Let common sense take over. You still haven't answered why PRC would employ huge, slow moving, heavily manned, and expensive naval vessels to bomb the coast when they can employ drones, missiles, or bombers to soften up ALL of Taiwan in these weeks or months you think are needed in preparation for a landing.
China is also planning an amphibious landing. I don't see the difference.
Hiding the missles in a bunker in the mountains? That is a joke and all China need to do is to destroy the mountain road to those bunkers and Taiwan can't even use them. They will also be used up like any other missiles and then what?
The reason they will use the navy is because they suit well to attack coastal defenses. They are going to use drones, missles and bombers as well, but for different targets.
China is also planning an amphibious landing. I don't see the difference.
Hiding the missles in a bunker in the mountains? That is a joke and all China need to do is to destroy the mountain road to those bunkers and Taiwan can't even use them. They will also be used up like any other missiles and then what?
The reason they will use the navy is because they suit well to attack coastal defenses. They are going to use drones, missles and bombers as well, but for different targets.
You keep on backpeddling. This is your quote "Let's imagine there are ships surrounded Taiwan on all sides, which are bombarding Taiwanese military for weeks". Now you are saying "oh, wait, I meant only coastal defenses and we are going to include drones, etc." This is after I told you of the traditional role of navy, the limits to naval gunfire, and the size of the island. I guess that's your way of admitting you were originally wrong.
You keep on backpeddling. This is your quote "Let's imagine there are ships surrounded Taiwan on all sides, which are bombarding Taiwanese military for weeks". Now you are saying "oh, wait, I meant only coastal defenses and we are going to include drones, etc." This is after I told you of the traditional role of navy, the limits to naval gunfire, and the size of the island. I guess that's your way of admitting you were originally wrong.
I mentioned it in the scenario to show how overwhelmed Taiwan has gotten. (Ships also include aircraft carriers.) I didn't mention missles as we both agreed that Taiwan will get its infrastructure destroyed by missles so I didn't think it was necessary to mention it again.
If it makes you happy, then you can pretend I meant something else and the pretend version of me is wrong. Just explain, how will Taiwan stop an amphibious landing after being blockaded for months, Taiwan has run out of missles and fuel, has seen its infrastructure destroyed by missles and saw its coastal defenses destroyed by China's navy.
PRC does not act irrationally, they don't have some crazy Saddam or Kim Jong Un at the controls. They will pursue military action only if they think they can win, and right now they know they don't have the capability to win. They know it, we know it. But going forward, the US can match China build up quickly, that's no problem. The only question being is the US willing to do so.
An interesting point on why China will NOT choose to attack Taiwan is an observation from Russia attacking Ukraine. That's the world economics boycott against Russia as result.
China is heavily dependent on import of food & energy to feed its people and to keep up its industry energy consumption. Without them, China's economy will shrink within a matter of months. Worse, Chinese ships and fighter aircrafts may run out of fuel.
Another possibility is China may have a bigger fish to fry. China has always wanted the Eastern part of Russia called "Valdiostok" to have access to the Northern Pacific Ocean. This was at one time belong to China with heavily Chinese population, but Starlin forced the exile of Chinese to make the Russian population dominate in that region. China may take advantage of current Russia "weakness" in busy fighting the Ukraine war, running low in both soldiers & weapons, to take that region by force.
Again, the world of political chess.
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