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They don't have to ship through the Taiwan strait. They can ship from Southern China and they can ship from north through Japan. As long as both sides allow it, then it will be no problem.
No chance in hell they'll be able to ship much from north through Japan if there is any blockade.
The best bet is through the south, which will depends on how the likes of Philippines and Vietnam react. The latter two countries have their own interests in South China Sea also, but aren't 100% friends with the likes of USA either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon
Machinery exports from Taiwan to China is 1% of China's total imports and Taiwan does not have a monopoly on this sector. It is not essential for China's war economy. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz.../10/2003804491
But you ask a good question, why hasn't China done anything material. Mao tried, but he failed because China was too weak. It took time to recover from Mao's mismanagement so it was impossible for China to do anything before 2010. That leaves us with 13 years.
The missing puzzle is that Hu strategy for Taiwan was economic dependency, not invasion. When Xi took over, he took over a military that was not prepared for an invasion of Taiwan and he had to build it up. There are clear signs that he is preparing his military, military spending is increasing rapidly, he is pushing war propaganda at home and he extended his term.
We often hear that China will invade if Taiwan declare independence. But if China can't invade, then they can't do it even if Taiwan crosses some red lines. If the whole invasion preparation is a bluff, then he risk looking like a fool, if Taiwan calls his bluff. But if it is not a bluff, and he is determined to take Taiwan, then it is about when he will invade, not if he will invade.
At this point things are somewhat similar to the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis circa 1995-1996 - between visits of USA by Taiwan's leader (Lee Tung-hui back then), to PRC shooting a bunch of missiles nearby, also in a time just before an election in Taiwan (which will happened in 5 months).
The last part? Well, DPP looks to stay in power due to the 3-way split. Oh, and its candidate, Lai Ching-te, will have a stopover in USA tomorrow. The last part sounds familiar? Well, back in 1995 that's how Lee Tung-hui "visited" USA.
At this point things are somewhat similar to the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis circa 1995-1996 - between visits of USA by Taiwan's leader (Lee Tung-hui back then), to PRC shooting a bunch of missiles nearby, also in a time just before an election in Taiwan (which will happened in 5 months).
The last part? Well, DPP looks to stay in power due to the 3-way split. Oh, and its candidate, Lai Ching-te, will have a stopover in USA tomorrow. The last part sounds familiar? Well, back in 1995 that's how Lee Tung-hui "visited" USA.
Thanks Ion, please keep us posted on the upcoming Taiwan's presidential election. I'm sure the candidate for the DPP (Demoncratic Progressive Party - current President Tsai's party) continues to be anti-reunification with China.
Regarding to the blockade, the choke point is the Mallaca (sp?) strait, the narrow point between Malaysia/Singapore and Indonesia. That will stop all oil tankers from Russia/ Middle East to China.
Thanks Ion, please keep us posted on the upcoming Taiwan's presidential election. I'm sure the candidate for the DPP (Demoncratic Progressive Party - current President Tsai's party) continues to be anti-reunification with China.
Regarding to the blockade, the choke point is the Mallaca (sp?) strait, the narrow point between Malaysia/Singapore and Indonesia. That will stop all oil tankers from Russia/ Middle East to China.
but you realized that russia/middle east is land connected to China right? it can easily be done by train or even pipe. do you know how the allies supply china when the japanese controls the sea during ww2?
as for the person you're quoting, you may want to compare china's gdp today to that of 90s. they were similar to india's level back then.
but you realized that russia/middle east is land connected to China right? it can easily be done by train or even pipe. do you know how the allies supply china when the japanese controls the sea during ww2?
How much oil can Russia or the Middle East pump oil into China? From what I've read, it says "not enough". Look at the geography, I'm not sure the pipeline from middle east is operational today.
Glad you bring up the WW-II, Japan quickly suffered when the U.S. blocked the oil shipment to Japan.
No chance in hell they'll be able to ship much from north through Japan if there is any blockade.
The best bet is through the south, which will depends on how the likes of Philippines and Vietnam react. The latter two countries have their own interests in South China Sea also, but aren't 100% friends with the likes of USA either.
They can ship through a blockade, if the ship is not transporting sanctioned goods. That is why I said "As long as both sides allow it, then it will be no problem."
I think US can blockade both the south and north, so sanctioned goods will have to take land routes through Russia and Afghanistan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ion475
At this point things are somewhat similar to the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis circa 1995-1996 - between visits of USA by Taiwan's leader (Lee Tung-hui back then), to PRC shooting a bunch of missiles nearby, also in a time just before an election in Taiwan (which will happened in 5 months).
The last part? Well, DPP looks to stay in power due to the 3-way split. Oh, and its candidate, Lai Ching-te, will have a stopover in USA tomorrow. The last part sounds familiar? Well, back in 1995 that's how Lee Tung-hui "visited" USA.
The intention of the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis was to scare Taiwan into not voting for Lee Teng-hui. It didn't work and China gave up.
Currently, China isn't doing much that will scare Taiwan into compliance, but they are preparing their military, economy and population for war. It could be another bluff, but we have seen what happened in Ukraine and should prepare for the worst.
How much oil can Russia or the Middle East pump oil into China? From what I've read, it says "not enough". Look at the geography, I'm not sure the pipeline from middle east is operational today.
Glad you bring up the WW-II, Japan quickly suffered when the U.S. blocked the oil shipment to Japan.
you can never have enough, but china have no fear of any blockade on the sea because they are land connected to many other countries.
you said it yourself, japan, just like taiwan, is an island, they will quickly suffered the moment they lost sea superiority.
china on the other hand has shown that they can still trade with other countries when their sea is blocked or even when ships do not exist.
you can never have enough, but china have no fear of any blockade on the sea because they are land connected to many other countries.
you said it yourself, japan, just like taiwan, is an island, they will quickly suffered the moment they lost sea superiority.
china on the other hand has shown that they can still trade with other countries when their sea is blocked or even when ships do not exist.
You're speaking for China now? LOL.
I have to disagree with your 3rd sentence but that's what's this forum is for, agree to disagree. I believe the U.S. Naval and Air superiority will quickly block China from importing anything.
you can never have enough, but china have no fear of any blockade on the sea because they are land connected to many other countries.
China can survive a sea blockade, but that doesn't mean China doesn't fear a sea blockade.
Russia: Is already a pariah so won't be able to import the goods China needs. Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan/Turkmenistan: Bad infrastructure and too small and risky Afghanistan: Completely messed up country that lacks basic infrastructure Pakistan: Here is some opportunity. Pakistan can smuggle in sanctioned goods from India and Iran and send them to China. India: Hates China, won't cooperate. Myanmar: Won't be able to import what China needs Vietnam: Dislike China and lack access to the Indian sea.
China will be able to survive with its own production, Russian exports and smuggled goods through Pakistan, but the cost will be much higher and the capacity will be much lower. This is a scenario China wants to avoid, which is why they get so upset when the USA says it will defend Taiwan. However, most Chinese think it is a bluff as China is too important and China will win easily.
I have to disagree with your 3rd sentence but that's what's this forum is for, agree to disagree. I believe the U.S. Naval and Air superiority will quickly block China from importing anything.
can you elaborate on how anyone can block china from importing oil and natural gas from russia?
I'm speaking from the US too, we can import anything from canada or mexico even if all the ports are blocked.
is the concept of land connection so hard to comprehend? or is it that you have watched too many meme video about blockading the malaca whatever strait = blockading china?
China can survive a sea blockade, but that doesn't mean China doesn't fear a sea blockade.
Russia: Is already a pariah so won't be able to import the goods China needs. Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan/Turkmenistan: Bad infrastructure and too small and risky Afghanistan: Completely messed up country that lacks basic infrastructure Pakistan: Here is some opportunity. Pakistan can smuggle in sanctioned goods from India and Iran and send them to China. India: Hates China, won't cooperate. Myanmar: Won't be able to import what China needs Vietnam: Dislike China and lack access to the Indian sea.
China will be able to survive with its own production, Russian exports and smuggled goods through Pakistan, but the cost will be much higher and the capacity will be much lower. This is not a scenario China wants to avoid, which is why they get so upset whenever the USA says it will defend Taiwan. Most Chinese don't think the USA will dare as Chins is too important and they will just implement some toothless sanctions.
The situation with India is tricky. China is a rival, but at the same time India needs China because without it, the U.S. wrath and "there can only be one" energy will shift to India." Russia is only a pariah to Western nations and their few Asian allies. Other nations have no problem with it. In a conflict with China, I'm sure the Russians are eager for revenge and will happily supply what is needed to harm America. Vietnam is in a similar situation to India. Sure, there is distrust of China, but if China is taken down the U.S. will once again pursue its relentless pursuit of bringing down their government. The U.S. is only playing nice with them to spite China. Neither Vietnam or India can solely align their interest with the U.S. China is also a large trading party.
Regarding the Chinese thinking the U.S. will only implement toothless sanctions. They do have history on their side. The U.S. does not directly confront Nuclear armed powers. Maybe an argument could be made for the Cuban missile crisis, but that situation happened near America where it would have an advantage in the event of a conflict. The U.S. public doesn't stomach wars where we are not directly affected. The NEOCONS would undoubtedly implement their usual tricks to drum up support, but Americans will not stand for putting U.S. personnel in harm’s way. Ukraine has been begging for U.S. troop assistance.
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