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can you elaborate on how anyone can block china from importing oil and natural gas from russia?
I'm speaking from the US too, we can import anything from canada or mexico even if all the ports are blocked.
is the concept of land connection so hard to comprehend? or is it that you have watched too many meme video about blockading the malaca whatever strait = blockading china?
These people do not understand the intricacies of actually fighting a war. I contend a country with a modern navy and missile force can not be blockaded, unless the blockading party can stomach the losses that would ensue with ships being sunk and aircraft being blown out the sky. This isn't the 18 and 19th century anymore.
The situation with India is tricky. China is a rival, but at the same time India needs China because without it, the U.S. wrath and "there can only be one" energy will shift to India." Russia is only a pariah to Western nations and their few Asian allies. Other nations have no problem with it. In a conflict with China, I'm sure the Russians are eager for revenge and will happily supply what is needed to harm America. Vietnam is in a similar situation to India. Sure, there is distrust of China, but if China is taken down the U.S. will once again pursue its relentless pursuit of bringing down their government. The U.S. is only playing nice with them to spite China. Neither Vietnam or India can solely align their interest with the U.S. China is also a large trading party.
India is the largest country in the world, it doesn't need China. Indias economy is growing rapidly and will be able to produce most of the goods that China supply itself. India hate towards China will only get worse if China invades Taiwan, especially if the border disputes get violent.
And take a look at the map of Russia. It is facing a wall of unfriendly nations to the west, terrible geography to the south and China to the east. Its locked inside and will not be able to reexport goods into China.
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Originally Posted by Ice_Major
Regarding the Chinese thinking the U.S. will only implement toothless sanctions. They do have history on their side.
Russia thought that their gas dominance over the EU would force them to follow Russia. They also thought the USA and EUs public can't stomach the war for very long and will demand a peace-treaty. Russia was wrong and China will be wrong when it assumes that the USA will only implement toothless sanctions and hence get humiliated by China.
Anyway, your argument provide evidence for what I am arguing, Chinese believe that the USA is bluffing, so they don't believe they are too weak to invade Taiwan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_Major
These people do not understand the intricacies of actually fighting a war. I contend a country with a modern navy and missile force can not be blockaded, unless the blockading party can stomach the losses that would ensue with ships being sunk and aircraft being blown out the sky. This isn't the 18 and 19th century anymore.
If China tries to break the blockade, then it will be Chinese fighter jets and ships that will get sunk. This is not the 18th century, but many of the same rules apply, attackers suffer more than defenders.
The USA has suffered about almost 100,000 casualties from the Korean and Vietnam war. They are not going to suffer that kind of casualties from naval battles, so I don't agree with your argument that the USA won't stomach the losses.
can you elaborate on how anyone can block china from importing oil and natural gas from russia?
Let say you can import oil & natural gas via pipelines from Russia, but is it enough? Everything I've read says "NO".
Importing oil from Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan/Turkmenistan? It's a giant wasteland between the industrial area of China and these countries. Is the pipeline built? operational?
Pakistan? You do realize that what separates China from India and Pakistan is called the Himalayas mountains? At best, they can use trucks but that's a relatively small quantities. Building an oil pipeline? You gotta be kidding.
Myanmar? There was a talk about China building oil pipelines from Myanmar to Southern China, so the oil tankers from middle east can avoid the Malacca strait that will be blocked by the U.S. Navy. But same difficulties applied, in addition to mountains, there are jungles. Good luck building that pipeline.
If China actually attackes Taiwan, I wonder how many countries will boycott China like they did with Russia?
Back to my initial question - Will the U.S. get involved on this "conflict" and stomach the heavy losses that would ensure?
No country is likely to boycott China. It is just too big to be completely isolated. The strategy will therefore be to keep east Taiwan safe and weaken China, for instance through a targeted blockade.
I expect the USA to get involved, but it won't lead to heavy losses for the USA as they won't fight close to China. The war could escalate if China start attacking US military bases, but that will make the USA tolerate much higher losses.
Let say you can import oil & natural gas via pipelines from Russia, but is it enough? Everything I've read says "NO".
Importing oil from Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan/Turkmenistan? It's a giant wasteland between the industrial area of China and these countries. Is the pipeline built? operational?
Pakistan? You do realize that what separates China from India and Pakistan is called the Himalayas mountains? At best, they can use trucks but that's a relatively small quantities. Building an oil pipeline? You gotta be kidding.
Myanmar? There was a talk about China building oil pipelines from Myanmar to Southern China, so the oil tankers from middle east can avoid the Malacca strait that will be blocked by the U.S. Navy. But same difficulties applied, in addition to mountains, there are jungles. Good luck building that pipeline.
everything you read is wrong.
this is the reason why china is investing heavily in the belt and road.
pipelines only make sense for russia, the other countries will be connected using HSR.
I'm sure they'll be done "slightly" faster than the california HSR connecting LA to SF.
but even that's beside the point, you know that you can literally drive from china to europe, to middle east and back and forth, you know, the meaning of land connected?
this is the reason why china is investing heavily in the belt and road.
pipelines only make sense for russia, the other countries will be connected using HSR.
I'm sure they'll be done "slightly" faster than the california HSR connecting LA to SF.
but even that's beside the point, you know that you can literally drive from china to europe, to middle east and back and forth, you know, the meaning of land connected?
Do you think that, in the event of a war, the US wouldn't start lobbing cruise missiles at that those pipelines, the mountain passes, and rail lines?
For all the talk about the US being such a big, war mongering meanie, you guys sure seem to dismiss its capabilities for fighting big, mean wars.
Also, how long will these belt and road projects hold up as China's economy sputters? Central Asia is drawn in by money and economics; if China fails to deliver, their allergiance wanes. If China hasn't delivered and then goes and gets into a war with the US and its allies...
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are you american? are you or your children willing to fight in another country's civil war like we did for vietnam?
It depends on whether Americans view it like Vietnam or Iraq, or like WW2. Vietnam and Iraq were nations that didn't truly have anything to do with the US or its global standing, which is the main reason there was so much discontent among Americans over them. WW2 was seen as an existential threat, and a war of "good vs evil."
Vietnam was a country no one in the US had heard of prior to the war. Iraq was widely regarded as a non-threat before and after the first Gulf War, and their actions impacted Americans little. Everyone knows about China, it's been a bogeyman before, it's been belligerent and assertive, and it's also been actively working to undercut American interests at the same time it has made some major threats to the US.
It also depends quite a bit how any war would start. If China decided to attack Taiwan after America has made it abundantly clear that it views Taiwan as a strategic interest and partner, or even more stupidly, if it attacked America or it's military first, then a majority of Americans would be willing to go to war.
The situations are so vastly different that if you are going back and comparing them as though they're apples to apples, and refer to it as "another country's civil war," you really either don't know what you're talking about, or are viewing it in grossly simplified, one-sided terms.
Not to get too much in to my background, I actually do at least more than most. I'm a former military member who served during the Iraq war. I understand first hand what happens when you have certain people making foreign policy decision based upon ideas of hegemony or some false sense of morality.
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