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Let’s start with China. The country many on this forum swear everyone hates. China has three redlines when it comes to Taiwan. If either of these redlines is crossed, I do believe it would trigger aggressive action.
1) Taiwan claims independence
2) A foreign power stations troops or nuclear weapons in the country
3) Taiwan tries to develop nuclear weapons.
To answer the O&P if one of these redlines is crossed, then yes China will pursue aggressive action.
That is the wrong way to think about the conflict.
Invading Taiwan is a big decision and they are not going to change their foreign policy based on some red lines. Red lines are just propaganda to scare countries into doing what they want. In reality the decisions are already made.
If Xi plans to attack Taiwan then it will happen regardless of what Taiwan does. If he doesn't plan to attack, then Taiwan has to seriously overreach before it will invade.
Will the U.S. get into a WAR with China because of Taiwan?
Interested in your opinion?
Why and why not?
No. China knows full well their military is simply too weak to risk war with US. Latest Chinese aircraft carriers do not even have any aircraft.
Quote:
However, as much as China would like the world to believe that it has arrived as a major naval force, the reality is starkly different. As a matter of fact, China is definitely building the 003 aircraft carrier and might even launch it this year, but it simply does not have the fighter jets required to weaponise the gigantic ship. Now, pray tell, what good is an aircraft carrier without the aircraft?
That is the wrong way to think about the conflict.
Invading Taiwan is a big decision and they are not going to change their foreign policy based on some red lines. Red lines are just propaganda to scare countries into doing what they want. In reality the decisions are already made.
If Xi plans to attack Taiwan then it will happen regardless of what Taiwan does. If he doesn't plan to attack, then Taiwan has to seriously overreach before it will invade.
That's why they are called redlines. Has to be something worthy of significantly altering foreign policy, otherwise it wouldn't be a redline. Redlines are not just for scaring. They are in a way of setting the playfield, so ones adversaries understand the stakes. Sort of a "we told you not to do this" action. The Korean war provides a good example. U.S. forces ignored Chinse redlines. the end result of was Chinese entering the conflict and pushing U.S. forces back. The U.S. learned its lesson when Vietnam came around.
The US has been vocal about protecting Taiwan’s interests, and as mentioned its chipmaking capacity makes it a strategic partner. I don’t think the US would want that ability to fall into Chinese hands. It would be tough for the US to back away from China trying to take over Taiwan, especially because their claims to the island seem so absurd to us. Plus our politicians talk a big game but there’s rarely a war these people in DC don’t like.
Aircraft operations are complex and relatively new to China; however, as history has shown when China applies resources and time to a situation it quickly catches up. Just look at its recent space endeavors. China doesn't have to field a significant amount or various types of ships to the conflict. Their military doctrine has been one of anti-area denial. They are the only country that I know of with a command structure dedicated strictly to rockets, the PLARF Their anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles are capable and even greater can be launched from thousands of miles away in the safety of the Gobi desert.
That's why they are called redlines. Has to be something worthy of significantly altering foreign policy, otherwise it wouldn't be a redline. Redlines are not just for scaring. They are in a way of setting the playfield, so ones adversaries understand the stakes. Sort of a "we told you not to do this" action. The Korean war provides a good example. U.S. forces ignored Chinse redlines. the end result of was Chinese entering the conflict and pushing U.S. forces back. The U.S. learned its lesson when Vietnam came around.
I am not saying red lines doesn't exist, but the majority of red lines are fake and just expressed to scare other countries to do what they want. China said the 38th Parallel was their red line, but there was nothing special about this line so the USA believed China was bluffing. I think China was partly dishonest and the true red line was to keep North Korea as a buffer state, so that China doesn't need to put a lot of soldiers to defend that border. The real problem was lack of communication, which led to the USA not understanding China's true motivations. China also issued 900 final warnings to the USA for not respecting their territorial claims and did nothing.
China is making and will make fake red lines to isolate Taiwan. Taiwan should not respect them, because they do not influence China's decision to invade. If China is planning to invade, then they will just move the goal posts till they find some resistance. And if they aren't, then they will just keep making baseless threats like North Korea does.
Invading another country is a big decision. It is not something China will let foreign countries decide by some arbitrary red lines. It will either be done due to some outrageous incident or because it was planned a long time ago. Both Taiwan and the USA try to avoid unnecessary aggressive moves, so the real risk is that China is preparing for war.
Aircraft operations are complex and relatively new to China; however, as history has shown when China applies resources and time to a situation it quickly catches up. Just look at its recent space endeavors. China doesn't have to field a significant amount or various types of ships to the conflict. Their military doctrine has been one of anti-area denial. They are the only country that I know of with a command structure dedicated strictly to rockets, the PLARF Their anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles are capable and even greater can be launched from thousands of miles away in the safety of the Gobi desert.
Nah.
China is a fraud. It can't catch up and their space program is evidence.
Been to the moon yet?......... Nope. If they were capable they would have already gone. Probably never going to go, either, since they are staring at economic decline if not disaster.
The Chinese navy is described as Big, Spacious, New and Harmless. The Chinese submarine is so noisy it is described as like listening to a cow drag a bicycle down a dirt road.
With Biden at the helm he’ll more likely give the Chinese cluster bombs, tanks and other munitions ….maybe even send troops to bolster the Chinese army.
That is the wrong way to think about the conflict.
Invading Taiwan is a big decision and they are not going to change their foreign policy based on some red lines. Red lines are just propaganda to scare countries into doing what they want. In reality the decisions are already made.
If Xi plans to attack Taiwan then it will happen regardless of what Taiwan does. If he doesn't plan to attack, then Taiwan has to seriously overreach before it will invade.
I guess it all comes down to a global political poker game.
In that poker calculus, Xi has to decide if he invades Taiwan, what is the likelihood to win against the U.S. and allies forces. What is the U.S. political climate to allow the administration to engage a war with China over Taiwan? Also, what is the China's perception of U.S. military "readiness" if such conflict should occur?
Along that line of thought, China can read much into the U.S. position on Ukraine war. If the "America First" agenda prevails, the U.S. gives up on Ukraine then it sends a strong signal to China what the U.S. will do with Taiwan.
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