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I agree. I called out the other silly poster for putting his/her interpretation of the term "country" by earlier calling out another member. Not a big deal that needs to be discussed further.
I wish it was more clearcut on Taiwan's status, but they are a de facto separate self-governing entity and have operated that way since the late 40s. De facto is a tricky term - it means regardless of what official government or recognition exits, Taiwan in fact operates as a sovereign nation.
The one thing everyone wishes for is simply the status quo, which has worked successfully for 70 years.
Good to hear. This is where it's always tricky. There's an arguably valid interpretation that the ROC is a country in 'de facto', then there's the official recognition that Taiwan is not a country. So it depends on whether you want to take the official or figurative standpoint.
In informal scenarios you can express the figurative view, but in formal scenarios you have to take the official stance.
The circumstances which led to the interpretation of Taiwan's status and its existence as a 'de facto' entity, is exceptional. Not at least the "There is but one China and Taiwan is part of China" part, would make it by extension an internal Chinese affair. The issue here is what constitutes as China, the ROC or the PRC. And that's the whole intent. Strategic ambiguity.
As a consquence, countries such as the US holding informal relations with a 'de facto' entity is accepted, but having things like a politician such as Pelosi on an official state-like visit to Taiwan, crosses the line. Just as much as any military action would have a broad negative impact. But at least for now it's all speculative. Regardless I hope that Taiwan can decide for its own, and be free of any sort of external influence from the big fish on both sides of the pond, east or west.
Last edited by ciTydude123; 07-25-2023 at 04:49 PM..
I don’t think there will be a war. I expect that the status quo will continue.
But if there was going to be war, there are some things that are unknown right now.
1). The US will need bases in the Philippines, Japan, and maybe even South Korea. Also, it wouldn’t hurt to ask if Vietnam would be interested in leasing a base or two, as crazy as that is. But regardless, it is unknown if any of those countries would allow the use of their country to help the US defend Taiwan. Without them, the US can’t defend Taiwan very well.
2) What is the resolve of Taiwanese people? If China attacks, it will devastate the island and hundreds of thousands will die. Is it worth it to the Taiwanese to hold the line and suffer like that? Or would it be better for them to just lay down like Hong Kong did? I’m not sure what the resolve of the Taiwanese actually is.
3) Lastly, I’m not convinced China has the capability to take the island without an enormous loss of materiel and human capital. It’s likely not worth it to them, and I don’t believe they have the amphibious assault capability right now.
So to sum up, I don’t believe the US should help defend Taiwan unless we are 100% certain we have all allies on board in the region, and that the Taiwanese will is strong. If they will fight to defend their island to the last man, and we can use other countries, I believe we should and could stop China from taking Taiwan. But again, I think the cost is way too high for China right now to attack, so they will continue to play the long game, chip away bit by bit.
Regarding your first point. The U.S. already has bases in those 3 countries. The question is, will those nations allow the U.S. to conduct war operations on their soil. Japan is basically a vassal state, so it's unlikely to have any say in the matter. South Korea is interesting, since they typically go along with U.S. wishes; however, if they were to allow the U.S. to conduct such operations, China would retaliate by arming N. Korea and providing that country aid, worsening the Korean Peninsula conflict. Also, China is a large trading partner of South Korea, putting their economy at risk. The Philippines seems to always be ruled by corrupt leaders and will allow the U.S. to conduct operations if the price is right. I can't see a scenario outside of the China directly striking Vietnam which the Vietnamese government would allow the U.S. to utilize a base on its sole. It's in their policy not to allow foreign militaries. Also allowing an American military base when their ancestors suffered greatly to kick the U.S. out would be greatly disrespectful to their ancestors.
OK then taking away the snarky immature comments we are getting somewhere. The argument could be made that the Chinese mainland is part of Taiwan, as the ROC controlled the rest of China until overthrown in a civil war in the 1940s (which in turn came from the chaos and devastation of WWII). ROC has ironically "recognized" the PRC however.
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It's always a bit humorous when somebody makes snarky immature comments and then whines like a baby when precisely the same language is shoved right back at them. Might be the same sense of entitlement, but sense of entitlement isn't very convincing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Wadd
You made no case beyond lazily googling the official international recognition numbers, which we already know about. That does not dismiss the de facto recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign nation, with embassies and consulates (in everything but name) existing, visas issued, trade agreements, it's own currency, diplomatic relations, etc, besides the obvious independent government structure. That's why we have this topic.
Yup those lazy old international recognition numbers are hard to dismiss! 180 to 13= no independence for Taiwan. You don't need to convince me or anyone here, it is the international community that needs to be convinced.
The US is playing a double game. On one hand aknowleding the one "China" principle (again which China is the issue), on the other acting in certain ways that betray that. It's a potentially dangerous situation where you have 2 juggernauts with competing interests and Taiwan's stuck in the middle. Again I hope Taiwan can determine its own future away from external influence.
That's what you get when the status of Taiwan-China is fraught with ambiguity by design. If we want peace then keep the status quo and don't let any side betray that because that's fuel for conflict.
But the crux is, "You can let it run like a country, as long as you don't call it one".
Last edited by ciTydude123; 07-26-2023 at 12:45 AM..
Regarding your first point. The U.S. already has bases in those 3 countries. The question is, will those nations allow the U.S. to conduct war operations on their soil. Japan is basically a vassal state, so it's unlikely to have any say in the matter. South Korea is interesting, since they typically go along with U.S. wishes; however, if they were to allow the U.S. to conduct such operations, China would retaliate by arming N. Korea and providing that country aid, worsening the Korean Peninsula conflict. Also, China is a large trading partner of South Korea, putting their economy at risk. The Philippines seems to always be ruled by corrupt leaders and will allow the U.S. to conduct operations if the price is right. I can't see a scenario outside of the China directly striking Vietnam which the Vietnamese government would allow the U.S. to utilize a base on its sole. It's in their policy not to allow foreign militaries. Also allowing an American military base when their ancestors suffered greatly to kick the U.S. out would be greatly disrespectful to their ancestors.
Yes, I know the US has bases in Japan, SKorea, and the PI, I’ve been stationed in all 3 countries. As far as Vietnam, the US has done multiple bilateral military exercises in the past in some of our old Vietnam bases.
As far as the likelihood of utilizing all those countries, we will probably be able to convince them to say yes. Maybe even Vietnam, depending on the situation. Taiwan has a good relationship with Vietnam
But it’s no guarantee. Look at Turkey. We have given them billions of aid over the years, have multiple bases in the country, and they said no to operating out of their country in a time of war.
So Taiwan is "not" a country, but wink, wink. Ahh human ingenuity.
Pretty much. The majority of the world treat Taiwan like it is a country, and not like it is part of the PRC. They have Taiwanese diplomatic offices, recognize Taiwanese passports, and deal with Taiwan directly instead of going through the PRC.
Diplomatic missions of Taiwan
Orange: Has official relations (embassy and possibly consulate) Green: Has unofficial relations (representative missions functioning as de-facto diplomatic offices) Light Green: Accredited to an office located in another country
Yes pretty much. You can let it run like a country as long as you don't call or recognise it as one. So your talk and actions have to reflect that.
Don't play double games, have informal relations (eg "representative office" vs embassy), visit Taiwan but don't treat or make it look like an official state visit, don't let external factors shape Taiwan because it's officially an internal "Chinese" affair (again ambiguity of ROC or PRC, they're both "Chinese").
Of course if there's military action then you can argue to take a different position because it's human suffering. But for now it's nothing but speculation, so we all should play our part to maintain the status quo to avoid conflict.
Last edited by ciTydude123; 07-26-2023 at 02:22 AM..
Yes pretty much. You can let it run like a country as long as you don't call or recognise it as one. So your talk and actions have to reflect that.
Don't play double games, have informal relations (eg "representative office" vs embassy), visit Taiwan but don't treat or make it look like an official state visit, don't let external factors shape Taiwan because it's officially an internal "Chinese" affair (again ambiguity of ROC or PRC, they're both "Chinese").
Of course if there's military action then you can argue to take a different position because it's human suffering. But for now it's nothing but speculation, so we all should play our part to maintain the status quo to avoid conflict.
It's so ambiguous such that we cannot even agree if it's a independent country/state/sovereign nation (whatever you want to call it) or not.
My immature friend on the previous page seem preoccupied with lack of official recognition by the UN. But even that means nothing. The Montevideo Convention in 1933 (pre-UN) holds that a state merely include these principles: (a) a permanent population; (b) a defined territory; (c) government; and (d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states. Most importantly, it also states that recognition by the other states has no relevance on statehood. There is also the fact that PRC has never had control over Taiwan. Historically, you can even make the case that Taiwan belongs to Japan still.
IN theory the PRC's concept of "one state/two systems" should be a good compromise. That is, Taiwan becomes part of PRC but allowed to maintain semi-independence and self-determination. However, the examples of Hong Kong show that PRC has not stood by that concept, with constant erosion of autonomy and human rights since it was ceded back to PRC in the 90s. They simply can't be trusted.
I think what you call it doesn't matter.
we have cali/texas/florida republic here.
we have one country two systems here between red/blue states.
no one is going to do anything unless the state declares independence.
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