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You have got to be kidding, the Ukraine war going good for Russia? I am not even going to touch that.
It is not my opinion, it is a common opinion you will find in Russia. The opinions in China is more mixed, but they don't think Russia does as badly as westerners do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Wadd
It's already been explained why PRC cannot successfully win in Taiwan currently, even without US support - they currently lack an adequate naval capability to achieve this. They can knock out the infrastructure with missiles and drones but eventually you need to cross that straight. China is improving it's navy like crazy but still it will take years - 5 or 10 years.
If they knock out Taiwans infrastructure, then what is Taiwan going to use to repel China's amphibious assault?
It's already been explained why PRC cannot successfully win in Taiwan currently, even without US support - they currently lack an adequate naval capability to achieve this. They can knock out the infrastructure with missiles and drones but eventually you need to cross that straight. China is improving it's navy like crazy but still it will take years - 5 or 10 years.
I think it's common knowledge that China can take Taiwan if the U.S. doesn't get involved. The U.S. Commander for Eastern Pacific has told the Congress he expects China to attack Taiwan, if they choose to, by 2027.
I think it's common knowledge that China can take Taiwan if the U.S. doesn't get involved. The U.S. Commander for Eastern Pacific has told the Congress he expects China to attack Taiwan, if they choose to, by 2027.
Well last time I checked the year is currently 2023.
But yeah it's been well publicized in the media, which also aligns with CIA assessments: Xi has instructed his military to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan since his military is not capable currently. That means accelerating the modernization of it's military, specifically his navy. That doesn't mean he will invade Taiwan in 4 years, but he is pushing his military to have the means to.
Isn't it fascinating that autocrats still think that enslaving the people of other countries, and taking their property is justified?
If governments were instituted among men to secure endowed rights from predators, few would object.
But most governments are operated to enrich some at the expense of the many. That is the underlying objection to be subject of another government, and skinned alive for their benefit.
The ships need to be sunk in the open sea. That is something Taiwan can do, but only if their infrastructure is operational.
If Taiwan's defense is just men with machine guns, then they are screwed as China will keep bombing them.
Yes I am the one that had to tell you that PRC's missiles and drones can overwhelm Taiwan and hit it's infrastructure, rather than your strategy of China simply floating it's fleet over and bombing Taiwan which now you realize is not wise.
So yeah that scenario will cripple, but not destroy, ROCs ability to defend itself. However ROC has prepared for this, they know the threat. They have what's called the "porcupine strategy", Basically "a large number of small things". Systems that are small, numerous, smart, stealthy, fast, mobile, and difficult to counter. Basically asymmetrical warfare using Taiwan's natural defenses. They also have hardened sites, underground air bases, fuel depots, etc.
We also have PRCs difficulty of moving it's "heavies" to Taiwan, tanks and artillery. You don't load those onto personnel carriers.
So that's why I (and likely Xi) is saying that PRC does not have the capability to invade Taiwan at the current time, not without such a heavy cost as to make it not worth it. In a few years, maybe, and that's when Taiwan will need it's allies.
Yes I am the one that had to tell you that PRC's missiles and drones can overwhelm Taiwan and hit it's infrastructure, rather than your strategy of China simply floating it's fleet over and bombing Taiwan which now you realize is not wise.
I never said that. You are putting words in my mouth. I have stated for years on this forum that China will start with blockade and missiles.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Wadd
So yeah that scenario will cripple, but not destroy, ROCs ability to defend itself. However ROC has prepared for this, they know the threat. They have what's called the "porcupine strategy", Basically "a large number of small things". Systems that are small, numerous, smart, stealthy, fast, mobile, and difficult to counter. Basically asymmetrical warfare using Taiwan's natural defenses. They also have hardened sites, underground air bases, fuel depots, etc.
We also have PRCs difficulty of moving it's "heavies" to Taiwan, tanks and artillery. You don't load those onto personnel carriers.
So that's why I (and likely Xi) is saying that PRC does not have the capability to invade Taiwan at the current time, not without such a heavy cost as to make it not worth it. In a few years, maybe, and that's when Taiwan will need it's allies.
I will argue that Taiwan has prepared for a war with US aid, they have not prepared for a war fought alone as that is hopeless.
You are not providing much detail. Let's imagine there are ships surrounded Taiwan on all sides, which are bombarding Taiwanese military for weeks with no risk as Taiwan lack weapons and ammunition. They have also destroyed Taiwans infrastructure, there is no electricity and a massive shortage of gas. How are they going to stop China from eventually sending some ships closer and bring troops to the island.
The US has been an aggressor nation for hundreds of years and we need to just stop it. I hope and pray there's never a war with China, that would be insane.
I think the best the US can do is provide arms to Taiwan to dissuade China aggression.
You are not providing much detail. Let's imagine there are ships surrounded Taiwan on all sides, which are bombarding Taiwanese military for weeks with no risk as Taiwan lack weapons and ammunition. They have also destroyed Taiwans infrastructure, there is no electricity and a massive shortage of gas. How are they going to stop China from eventually sending some ships closer and bring troops to the island.
LOL. The largest ship guns have a range of like 15 or 20 miles. Taiwan is 245 miles long and 90 miles wide. I don't see any scenario where PRC naval vessels pounds Taiwan coastal areas for weeks. That does not make sense for multiple reasons.
Listen, I think we agree on the politics of it all, but leave out the military strategizing.
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