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I understand what you are trying to ask but your question should be really "Will the US get into a war because of CHINA". It will be the actions of China, not Taiwan, that cause it.
I think the topic has come up before in this forum. But to answer your question, I think Ukraine set up the new model for regional wars. You send your ally as much military assistance as possible to meet the threat, and no American military need get involved directly. Taiwan has a very capable and very motivated military with a massive reserve force to draw from and advanced weaponry. Even more American high tech weaponry will be enough to turn the Taiwan Strait into a People Republic of China graveyard before PRC even gets close to Taiwan. Of course you have to be proactive in that. Once the shooting starts aid to Taiwan will be difficult.
Anyways, anything that happens won't be for years and many things can change such as the current tension or China simply giving up on it's desire for Taiwan. The PRC economy currently is not good and war is bad for business. Also the Chinese have little capability to launch an amphibious landing for several years. Frankly their navy sucks right now, except maybe their subs, but they are upgrading and building ships and subs like crazy.
Who knows what the powers that be has planned.
I've come to the realization that these major events,wars,elections,etc. Is all planned and orchestrated. In my opinion,this kind of thing doesn't occur naturally.
Yes, because microchips are the new oil, and the USA will not brook the PRC taking TSMC. The US already threw 13B wishful dollars at the joke TSMC plant in Phoenix, which will go the way of Lordstown as a pretend plant that makes nothing.
China will not be allowed to annex Taiwan no matter what. They probably couldn't do it even if the US abandoned Taiwan today, and they sure as heck have a snowball's chance of a successful amphibious invasion if the US throws in even plausibly deniable help to the ROC, let alone RUP.
Foxconn already got more than half of a Ford class carrier in subsidies and they haven't even turned out a single chip (and never will)
So bla bla bla about is America willing to defend Taiwan. No. But they are willing to defend microchips. Also, everyone hates China, so it's a convenient political football for both sides of the aisle.
You know you are seriously effed if both libs and cons agree on beating you. They don't even do that for Soviets re: Ukraine.
Yes, because microchips are the new oil, and the USA will not brook the PRC taking TSMC. The US already threw 13B wishful dollars at the joke TSMC plant in Phoenix, which will go the way of Lordstown as a pretend plant that makes nothing.
China will not be allowed to annex Taiwan no matter what. They probably couldn't do it even if the US abandoned Taiwan today, and they sure as heck have a snowball's chance of a successful amphibious invasion if the US throws in even plausibly deniable help to the ROC, let alone RUP.
Yeah I have been thinking about the microchip issue, with so much production in Taiwan. Obviously PRC knows the value of the semiconductor industry but any invasion of Taiwan will also likely destroy that industry, specifically the capital intense foundries, in Taiwan. This will be a disaster for the entire world market, including PRC. I am assuming however these plants have disaster recovery plans to resume production quickly in a partner facility in a friendly country like the US, although not sure. My company has plants in Israel that likewise have DRPs in place to resume production in case of disasters including (specifically for Israel) war related calamities.
PRC has a huge problem - no regional allies, or at least none that will support them. Even the mere threat of US defense of Taiwan will not only mean facing the military might of the US, but also their allies - Japan certainly...Korea, Australia, all the commonwealth countries including UK even if token forces or air bases. Heck even Vietnam possibly, who have historical grievances with China as well as there own border disputes.
Yeah I have been thinking about the microchip issue, with so much production in Taiwan. Obviously PRC knows the value of the semiconductor industry but any invasion of Taiwan will also likely destroy that industry, specifically the capital intense foundries, in Taiwan. This will be a disaster for the entire world market, including PRC. I am assuming however these plants have disaster recovery plans to resume production quickly in a partner facility in a friendly country like the US, although not sure. My company has plants in Israel that likewise have DRPs in place to resume production in case of disasters including (specifically for Israel) war related calamities.
PRC has a huge problem - no regional allies, or at least none that will support them. Even the mere threat of US defense of Taiwan will not only mean facing the military might of the US, but also their allies - Japan certainly...Korea, Australia, all the commonwealth countries including UK even if token forces or air bases. Heck even Vietnam possibly, who have historical grievances with China as well as there own border disputes.
From what I read about semiconductor manufacturing, it's not adequate just to have the equipment but it takes years, even decades, to train the personnel on how to produce high quality chips.
Every sophisticated U.S. aircrafts, missiles, and satellites are dependent on the high quality microchips TSMC produces in Taiwan, so is the rest of the world. Having the new plant in Arizona still may take years to able to duplicate that capability.
Yeah I have been thinking about the microchip issue, with so much production in Taiwan. Obviously PRC knows the value of the semiconductor industry but any invasion of Taiwan will also likely destroy that industry, specifically the capital intense foundries, in Taiwan. This will be a disaster for the entire world market, including PRC.
I don't think the PRC wants to take Taiwans semiconductor industry, I think they want to eliminate it. It won't be a disaster for the PRC, because PRCs problem is that it is lagging behind, not that it is unable to produce chips at all. It is the west that will suffer the most if TSMC get destroyed as it takes time to replace the lost factories. Taiwan is also very important to China for historical and military reasons.
If the USA does nothing like CCP-supporters predict, then the PRC will be the big winner. Some of them might argue that the USA will provide weapons, which is not nothing. But to provide weapons, the USA needs to sink Chinese ships on the east coast of Taiwan to keep their own ships safe. That means they can either do nothing or fight China's navy directly. And if they are going to fight China's navy directly, then they also need to blockade China's sea routes to reduce import of sanctioned goods that could be used against the USAs navy.
Let’s start with China. The country many on this forum swear everyone hates. China has three redlines when it comes to Taiwan. If either of these redlines is crossed, I do believe it would trigger aggressive action.
1) Taiwan claims independence
2) A foreign power stations troops or nuclear weapons in the country
3) Taiwan tries to develop nuclear weapons.
To answer the O&P if one of these redlines is crossed, then yes China will pursue aggressive action. What it looks like would depend upon which line is crossed. Number 3 is easy to handle. No need to commit troops. Number 1 and 2 would likely trigger a military push. As of right not China has no reason for war and will instead choose to wait things out. The status quo remains. Why upset things.
Let’s look at the U.S. You know the country people believe to be the moral authority of the world fighting for freedom and democracy, while also bringing death and destruction to the world and making a profit.
The U.S. practices strategic ambiguity. Why such a strategy. Because the U.S. is not willing to cause WWIII over an island few Americans could identify on map. Besides numerous war games have been run, and all show the U.S. suffering mass casualties in such a conflict with U.S. ships being sent to the bottom of the Ocean. Americans can’t handle large scale numbers of casualties. No other country will send troops in mass. Just look at the internal polling of these nations. None of the countries support sending their men to die for Taiwan either. Japan, some European countries, and Australia would send some weapons. Possibility S. Korea; however, they would like be hesitant due to the N. Korea situation. The U.S. is however interested in maintaining global hegemony so Taiwan could serve as a useful tool to “keep the Chinse in their place” and foster good will. It will therefore continue to play up tensions until China agrees to cooperate and accept a lessor role.
Lastly let’s look at Taiwan. The grounds such a war would be fought. Ukraine serves as a cautionary tale. Sure, the Ukrainians put up a good fight. But their war efforts have stalled. Their country is getting ripped to pieces and their economy is destroyed. At the same time the countries that set them up or stand to gain later on, profit from this misery. Looking at this conflict I imagine the Taiwanese people want no part of such bloodshed. Not saying they wouldn’t defend their homeland, but rather they would have no interest in crossing China redlines, to avoid a conflict in the first place.
To some everything up. China will not attack so long as the status quo remains. Current Taiwanese leaders will choose to maintain status quo. Depending upon how China continues to rise, the U.S. with either try to preserve the status quo, or sucker the Taiwanese into abandoning for the U.S. benefit.
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