Is it time to resurrect the "Georgia will go blue" threads from 2008? (Decatur: university, to live)

[suprascooby22]

Originally Posted by Tdiddy0027

Another thing, and this might be wishful thinking: The Republican party has essentially maxed out the white vote in Georgia. I think winning about 75% of white Georgians is about as high as the GOP can get. The vote in South Georgia is almost completely polarized and the only place where they might be able to squeeze out some more votes would be North Georgia (maybe). The GOP should be very worried about the fact that the fastest growing area of the state is trending dem. Obama won the metro area 52-47, an improvement over Kerry's losing performance four years earlier although I don't know by how much.
So, what's the GOP going to do? They wrestled power from the Democrats by using the southern strategy, which proved tremendously successful in the rural south, but that's been maxed out. If they want to keep Georgia firmly in the red column then they're going to have to hold on to metro Atlanta, but how? The southern strategy isn't going to work in Decatur, Vinings or Alpharetta and appealing to metro Atlanta's huge minority population could lose them white voters in other areas of the state. Their only hope is holding onto the fast growing exurban counties. Forsyth, Cherokee, Coweta and Fayette give huge margins to the Republicans, but so did Cobb and Gwinnett once upon a time.
The Georgia GOP needs to find a new strategy to keep the state firmly red. I frankly see the 2010 elections as the pinnacle of their power, but it won't come so easily in the future.

PS. Roy Barnes decided he was going to win his campaign through south Georgia. Please. No democrat has a prayer among rural white voters in this state as long as Obama is president. Barnes' path to victory was through metro Atlanta, where he's from, and he didn't even manage to win his own county. I hope this has taught the Democrats a lesson.

NO amount of blacks, other minorities and northern transplanst will shift the state to the Democrats any time soon. This is wishful thinking at best. Also one thing that you fail to mention is that some minorities are now looking at the Repubublicans as a viable option. Both new black Republican congressman were elected in white southern districts. The fact that a black man could carry a very white district in South Carolina should the scare the h$ll out of any Democrat that is looking down the road. Also look at the gains that the Republicans just made with Hispanics and women. That more than anything speaks volumes about where the Republicans could be going in future elections. Now to be fair the Republicans are going to half to build on these gains and not squander them but if they do it opens the party up to more than just whites which make up the bulk of the Republican party to date.

[Tdiddy0027]

Originally Posted by suprascooby22

NO amount of blacks, other minorities and northern transplanst will shift the state to the Democrats any time soon. This is wishful thinking at best. Also one thing that you fail to mention is that some minorities are now looking at the Repubublicans as a viable option. Both new black Republican congressman were elected in white southern districts. The fact that a black man could carry a very white district in South Carolina should the scare the h$ll out of any Democrat that is looking down the road. Also look at the gains that the Republicans just made with Hispanics and women. That more than anything speaks volumes about where the Republicans could be going in future elections. Now to be fair the Republicans are going to half to build on these gains and not squander them but if they do it opens the party up to more than just whites which make up the bulk of the Republican party to date.

LOL. Look, don't look at the midterms as proof of some massive realignment. Unemployment is 10%, people are angry, and the midterm electorate skews conservative anyway. I think it's great that there are black Republicans coming out of the woodwork, but don't except black folks (at least in this state) to start idolizing Reagan any time soon. Black people still support the President at a rate of about 90% and I doubt there will be any huge shift among them to the Republican nominee in 2012, unless Obama eats a baby or something.
Hispanic: LOL again. Yeah, Republicans like Sharron Angle did a real heckuva job bringing hispanics into the fold this year. And by the way, Hispanic voters delivered Harry Reid his five point victory when all polls predicted a Sharron Angle victory.The central strategy of the GOP this year was to bring angry white voters to the polls to get them in power. I don't think the GOP is bad for minorities, but I know a lot of them who still think that.
And women still supported Democratic candidates by much larger margins than the Republican candidates. Believe it or not, Sarah Palin's and Sharron Angle's "no abortion whatsoever" isn't really compelling many women to leave the Democratic party. And let's also remember that Barack Obama won women in this state by eight points.
It's time to be realistic. If I can realize that Obama will NEVER win over rural white voters in this state while he is President, you have to admit that the Republican candidate will not likely win over many minorities or voters in Fulton and Dekalb.

[arjay57]

Republicans are really solidifying their position. If they get enough votes to amend the Constitution they can really make some huge, permanent changes.

Three white rural Democrats in the House have switched party loyalty in the last 48 hours. And we understand that three more are being courted by House Republicans.

So by the time the House Democratic caucus assembles at 1 p.m. today to elect new leadership, the group could be down to 65 members – barely more than the third of the chamber needed to block a constitutional amendment.


Political Insider with Jim Galloway | ajc.com

[RandyWatson13]

time to move? they'll have jim crow laws back in no time and the 3/5ths rule!

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by RandyWatson13

time to move? they'll have jim crow laws back in no time and the 3/5ths rule!

Oh, please...

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by RandyWatson13

time to move? they'll have jim crow laws back in no time and the 3/5ths rule!

I seriously doubt that. However, your kids may start learning how Adam and Eve saddled up their dinosaurs.

Gays may not be quite as happy but at some point they have to recognize they are a minority.

[RandyWatson13]

Originally Posted by arjay57

I seriously doubt that. However, your kids may start learning how Adam and Eve saddled up their dinosaurs.

.

More roads check
More government check

[suprascooby22]

Originally Posted by RandyWatson13

time to move? they'll have jim crow laws back in no time and the 3/5ths rule!

Ah fearmongering at it's best.

[suprascooby22]

Originally Posted by Tdiddy0027

LOL. Look, don't look at the midterms as proof of some massive realignment. Unemployment is 10%, people are angry, and the midterm electorate skews conservative anyway. I think it's great that there are black Republicans coming out of the woodwork, but don't except black folks (at least in this state) to start idolizing Reagan any time soon. Black people still support the President at a rate of about 90% and I doubt there will be any huge shift among them to the Republican nominee in 2012, unless Obama eats a baby or something.
Hispanic: LOL again. Yeah, Republicans like Sharron Angle did a real heckuva job bringing hispanics into the fold this year. And by the way, Hispanic voters delivered Harry Reid his five point victory when all polls predicted a Sharron Angle victory.The central strategy of the GOP this year was to bring angry white voters to the polls to get them in power. I don't think the GOP is bad for minorities, but I know a lot of them who still think that.
And women still supported Democratic candidates by much larger margins than the Republican candidates. Believe it or not, Sarah Palin's and Sharron Angle's "no abortion whatsoever" isn't really compelling many women to leave the Democratic party. And let's also remember that Barack Obama won women in this state by eight points.
It's time to be realistic. If I can realize that Obama will NEVER win over rural white voters in this state while he is President, you have to admit that the Republican candidate will not likely win over many minorities or voters in Fulton and Dekalb.

You may want to read this article in regards to what Hispanic Republicans just did in the mid terms. Regardless of the Harry Reid win.

Latinos, blacks ride GOP wave to major wins - Boston.com

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by K-SawDude

Some good points here, especially about race. But I'd be willing to bet that in many of the states you cite here, the urban/rural divide is still at work. In other words, sure, some rural counties in the Midwest and Northeast went for Obama. But I'd bet that there was a higher percentage of Democratic support in the more urbanized areas than in the rural ones. I'm certain this is the case in the Plain States and the Midwest (just look at Kansas, Illinois, Wisconsin, etc.)

But I take your point about Georgia and South Carolina. I remember reading a while ago that the 2008 election showed what was possible in some Southern states when the African American vote (which is intensely Democratic) gets maxed out. That vote plus the increases in minorities and Northern transplants in GA does really seem to suggest GA might be more of a swing state in the future. But that's only going to happen if those Dem voters actually show up to vote.

I wasn't denying that the rural/urban divide has played a factor in northern states. What I was trying to say is that in many cases, there are exceptions. I used the North as something to compare the South with. What I was pointing to is that in the South, race is the big factor and that the rural vs urban divide isn't the only factor.
As for the reason I pointed out the rural northern counties that Obama won, well, this was my motive. I notice that very few, if any rural, predominantly White counties in the South voted for Obama, versus in northern states, where it was more likely to occur. And it brings me to these questions.

All of the northern states I mentioned have much higher percentages of Whites than most Southern states. These states also have much lower percentages of African-Americans than Southern states. In fact, the states with the highest percentages of African-Americans are in the South. If one were to compare Georgia and Iowa, and if one used "typical" inferences, one might thing Obama would win Georgia. Georgia has more African-Americans, I higher percentage of African-Americans, more people, a major metropolitan area(one of the largest in the USA). Iowa is much more White, more rural. However, it worked the other way Around. Obama won Iowa, not Georgia.

The question I want to ask is: What do you think is the main factor for such political divides in the South based on race versus in many northern states? Why doesn't this political divide exist to such a level in many northern states, such as Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the states I mentioned in my last post?