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About the only jobs that be left after the rest are sent to Vietnam will likely be police, security, and the military. The conservative power brokers and their wealthy patrons are gonna need those services when the middle class starts to shrink to the point of non-existence and the "Joe the Plumber" types begin to realize that they are not as well off as they think they are.
Unfortunately for a true revolution of social/political thought to happen, regular people will have to suffer first...if only for the fact that so many of them are so g-- d--- ignorant.
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Originally Posted by K-SawDude
Oh great. As if state revenues weren't already low enough.
When voters figure out that tax cuts + spending cuts = significant layoffs, they ain't gonna be happy. I worry particularly about teacher jobs in this state. Classrooms are already maxed out in many districts, and I'm not seeing where a lot of these cuts are going to come from.
About the only jobs that be left after the rest are sent to Vietnam will likely be police, security, and the military. The conservative power brokers and their wealthy patrons are gonna need those services when the middle class starts to shrink to the point of non-existence and the "Joe the Plumber" types begin to realize that they are not as well off as they think they are.
Unfortunately for a true revolution of social/political thought to happen, regular people will have to suffer first...if only for the fact that so many of them are so g-- d--- ignorant.
OMG you are reading my mind!I keep telling my crazy 23y/o Army reservist, struggling,college student Mexican Republican friend the same thing!He is so clueless!
Your friend from reading his characteristics is physically, culturally, ethnically, and financially the complete opposite of what one would think is the typical run-of-the-mill southern conservative Republican! Sounds like he is suffering from a major identity crisis.
How does he survive from day to day without experiencing a major case of cognitive dissonance?
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Originally Posted by afonega1
OMG you are reading my mind!I keep telling my crazy 23y/o Army reservist, struggling,college student Mexican Republican friend the same thing!He is so clueless!
This has been a very stimulating political discussion, but we have moved away from the topic at hand. Personally, I think Georgia is flippable in 2012 if Barack Obama sails to reelection and increases his popular and electoral vote margin, as most two term presidents do, and creates a strong campaign apparatus here, like the one created in North Carolina in 2008. If at least one of these two things don't happen, then of course he won't win it, but maybe by a smaller margin than many people think.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: The Democratic Party and Georgia are both moving in the same direction; both are becoming more affluent, more urban/suburban, and more diverse. In the next few cycles, we could begin to see a politically divided Georgia where Democrats dominate in metro Atlanta and Republicans dominate in the rural areas (with the exception of some heavily black south Georgia counties.) If Obama wins the state in 2012, he will win it through Metro Atlanta, with no help from any other region.
This has been a very stimulating political discussion, but we have moved away from the topic at hand. Personally, I think Georgia is flippable in 2012 if Barack Obama sails to reelection and increases his popular and electoral vote margin, as most two term presidents do, and creates a strong campaign apparatus here, like the one created in North Carolina in 2008. If at least one of these two things don't happen, then of course he won't win it, but maybe by a smaller margin than many people think.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: The Democratic Party and Georgia are both moving in the same direction; both are becoming more affluent, more urban/suburban, and more diverse. In the next few cycles, we could begin to see a politically divided Georgia where Democrats dominate in metro Atlanta and Republicans dominate in the rural areas (with the exception of some heavily black south Georgia counties.) If Obama wins the state in 2012, he will win it through Metro Atlanta, with no help from any other region.
I think you may be right, since the situation you describe is already apparent in many other states. A common political pattern in the U.S. right now is urban (liberal) vs. rural (conservative), with the suburbs being the "swing" districts in states. You can see this sort of thing very well in states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, and many more.
For Georgia to become more competitive, the population of the Atlanta metro is going to have to outweigh the rest of the state much more than it does currently. And Obama and the Dems have to play even harder for the metro suburban counties. I do get the impression Cobb and Gwinett may be trending bluer over the next decade, if only due to demographic changes.
Obama did come awfully close in GA in 2008 for such a supposedly red state. (Didn't he lose 52-47?)
I think you may be right, since the situation you describe is already apparent in many other states. A common political pattern in the U.S. right now is urban (liberal) vs. rural (conservative), with the suburbs being the "swing" districts in states. You can see this sort of thing very well in states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, and many more.
For Georgia to become more competitive, the population of the Atlanta metro is going to have to outweigh the rest of the state much more than it does currently. And Obama and the Dems have to play even harder for the metro suburban counties. I do get the impression Cobb and Gwinett may be trending bluer over the next decade, if only due to demographic changes.
Obama did come awfully close in GA in 2008 for such a supposedly red state. (Didn't he lose 52-47?)
Another thing to consider is race. In Georgia, it isn't so much a matter of rural versus urban,although most of the rural counties did vote for McCain this past election. Race plays a big factor. States like Pennsylvania and Michigan do have large African-American populations, but the vast majority of African-Americans live in the urban areas, such as Philadelphia,Detroit, Pittsburgh, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Harrisburg, and other cities. And this is where the majority of all residents live. In Georgia, African-Americans live in rural areas as well as urban areas. In fact, there are 17 counties in Georgia that are predominantly African-American. Of those counties, 3 are urban. The rest are rural counties. All of these counties voted for Obama this past election. There were 17 other counties that are not majority African-American that voted for Obama. They mainly have large African-American populations are are located in an urban area or relatively close to an urban area. Apart from that, the vast majority of rural counties voted for McCain. It isn't just urban vs rural, it is also Black vs White in this case.
This isn't just Georgia. Look at South Carolina. Most of the counties that Obama won were predominantly African-American. I see the same pattern in Mississippi and Alabama.
Interesting, I looked at maps for places like Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Iowa, Maine and Vermont. Wisconsin has alot of places that are predominantly White, rural and those places voted in favor of Obama. In Minnesota, there were quite a few rural places that voted for McCain, but there were also many rural, predominantly White counties that voted for Obama. Maine is very rural, low density in population, 95 percent White and every county(except Piscataquis County)voted for Obama. New Hampshire and Vermont are not very urbanised and have alot of rural areas. They too are 97-98 percent White. Every county in both states voted for Obama. Iowa is mainly a farming state, it is around 90 percent White. Even with the rural areas that did vote Republican(and there were alot, especially in the western part of the state), there were quite a few rural counties to the east that voted Democrat. What I find interesting is that the states I just mentioned have very small African-American(or minorities in general) populations and very large White populations and these states were all won by Obama, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine particularly. In Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi, where you have among the highest proportions of African-Americans, these states were all won by McCain.
Last edited by green_mariner; 11-09-2010 at 08:03 PM..
Another thing to consider is race. In Georgia, it isn't so much a matter of rural versus urban,although most of the rural counties did vote for McCain this past election. Race plays a big factor. States like Pennsylvania and Michigan do have large African-American populations, but the vast majority of African-Americans live in the urban areas, such as Philadelphia,Detroit, Pittsburgh, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Harrisburg, and other cities. And this is where the majority of all residents live. In Georgia, African-Americans live in rural areas as well as urban areas. In fact, there are 17 counties in Georgia that are predominantly African-American. Of those counties, 3 are urban. The rest are rural counties. All of these counties voted for Obama this past election. There were 17 other counties that are not majority African-American that voted for Obama. They mainly have large African-American populations are are located in an urban area or relatively close to an urban area. Apart from that, the vast majority of rural counties voted for McCain. It isn't just urban vs rural, it is also Black vs White in this case.
This isn't just Georgia. Look at South Carolina. Most of the counties that Obama won were predominantly African-American. I see the same pattern in Mississippi and Alabama.
Interesting, I looked at maps for places like Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Iowa, Maine and Vermont. Wisconsin has alot of places that are predominantly White, rural and those places voted in favor of Obama. In Minnesota, there were quite a few rural places that voted for McCain, but there were also many rural, predominantly White counties that voted for Obama. Maine is very rural, low density in population, 95 percent White and every county(except Piscataquis County)voted for Obama. New Hampshire and Vermont are not very urbanised and have alot of rural areas. They too are 97-98 percent White. Every county in both states voted for Obama. Iowa is mainly a farming state, it is around 90 percent White. Even with the rural areas that did vote Republican(and there were alot, especially in the western part of the state), there were quite a few rural counties to the east that voted Democrat. What I find interesting is that the states I just mentioned have very small African-American(or minorities in general) populations and very large White populations and these states were all won by Obama, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine particularly. In Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi, where you have among the highest proportions of African-Americans, these states were all won by McCain.
Some good points here, especially about race. But I'd be willing to bet that in many of the states you cite here, the urban/rural divide is still at work. In other words, sure, some rural counties in the Midwest and Northeast went for Obama. But I'd bet that there was a higher percentage of Democratic support in the more urbanized areas than in the rural ones. I'm certain this is the case in the Plain States and the Midwest (just look at Kansas, Illinois, Wisconsin, etc.)
But I take your point about Georgia and South Carolina. I remember reading a while ago that the 2008 election showed what was possible in some Southern states when the African American vote (which is intensely Democratic) gets maxed out. That vote plus the increases in minorities and Northern transplants in GA does really seem to suggest GA might be more of a swing state in the future. But that's only going to happen if those Dem voters actually show up to vote.
The black/white political divide is huge in South Georgia. Often, looking at a county's racial makeup will tell you the election results. For example: Mitchell County in SW Georgia is 50% white and 48% African American and guess what? McCain beat Obama 52-47. Talk about polarization. I don't think that's going to change for a while in South Georgia, but metro Atlanta is full of white transplants who really could care less about the racial politics of the old south. Many of them are Republican, but flipping just a small percentage of them into the (D) column could flip several Atlanta counties and possibly deliver the state to Obama or another Democrat.
If the 2012 election results show Obama holding every metro county that he won in 2008, while picking up Cobb, Gwinnett and Henry and not suffering humiliating losses in the exurban counties, then the Republican nominee should be worried, no matter how well he (or she) did in the rest of the state.
Another thing, and this might be wishful thinking: The Republican party has essentially maxed out the white vote in Georgia. I think winning about 75% of white Georgians is about as high as the GOP can get. The vote in South Georgia is almost completely polarized and the only place where they might be able to squeeze out some more votes would be North Georgia (maybe). The GOP should be very worried about the fact that the fastest growing area of the state is trending dem. Obama won the metro area 52-47, an improvement over Kerry's losing performance four years earlier although I don't know by how much.
So, what's the GOP going to do? They wrestled power from the Democrats by using the southern strategy, which proved tremendously successful in the rural south, but that's been maxed out. If they want to keep Georgia firmly in the red column then they're going to have to hold on to metro Atlanta, but how? The southern strategy isn't going to work in Decatur, Vinings or Alpharetta and appealing to metro Atlanta's huge minority population could lose them white voters in other areas of the state. Their only hope is holding onto the fast growing exurban counties. Forsyth, Cherokee, Coweta and Fayette give huge margins to the Republicans, but so did Cobb and Gwinnett once upon a time.
The Georgia GOP needs to find a new strategy to keep the state firmly red. I frankly see the 2010 elections as the pinnacle of their power, but it won't come so easily in the future.
PS. Roy Barnes decided he was going to win his campaign through south Georgia. Please. No democrat has a prayer among rural white voters in this state as long as Obama is president. Barnes' path to victory was through metro Atlanta, where he's from, and he didn't even manage to win his own county. I hope this has taught the Democrats a lesson.
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