Housing Value Predictions for N. Fulton in 2011? (Atlanta, Sandy Springs: short sale, real estate)

[atlanta28]

Just wondering what will happen this year in Roswell, Alpharetta, & Johns Creek... will housing prices fall or rise by 3rd quarter & by how much?

[JPD]

Just wondering what the powerball numbers are going to be next week.

[atlanta28]

Lol... right now it seems that both answers can be anybody's guess.

[spacelord75]

2011-2012 is likely to be the period where we finally hit rock bottom. Expect the onslaught of foreclosure/short sale shadow inventory to drive prices down over this period. If you are a buyer, I would wait until the end of this year to start seriously looking unless you get a great deal and want to take advantage of low interest rates. If you are a potential seller, your best bet will be to snag someone this spring before rates go up too much but before the double dip starts in earnest....otherwise you are probably holding the bag until 2015 at the earliest (which is likely the earliest we will be back to where we are NOW).

[jpatlanta]

Down in my opinion quite a bit. A friend who is with a local bank told me there is an awful lot of inventory being held that will have to hit the market soon. A large proportion of this is new and newer builds in N Fulton and obviously even more in Forsyth and Cherokee. If you are looking to buy its much safer to get something further in right now. Even safer to rent.

If gas hits $4 or more a gallon it will cause bigger drops in these areas with no infrastructure.

[Bobsky42]

Are the predictions the same for mid-town, VaHi as well?

[SW30303]

I think most of Atlanta residential housing prices will go down short term before going up. North Fulton is definitely no exception. I think condo prices will go down even more everywhere for another year or so in the metro.

Perhaps in 3-4 years, maybe prices will go up a little in most of Atlanta, or at least stabilize, but hard to say.

Another thing to keep in mind is not only are interest rates headed up, getting a loan will be more expensive, too, given the news on the lawmakers in Washington making big changes to Freddie and Fannie. These results may keep prices low for quite a while.

Gas most likely will hit $4 per gallon soon. Not sure how long gas prices will stay high, they could go even higher for the short term.

I recall that prices of single detached houses in Vinings never really took a hit, yet. Not sure where else, but most places in metro Atlanta took a hit for sure since 2007, especially everything in Clayton county. I believe homes in Clayton county lost 50%-80% for single detached homes since 2006 or so and in some other areas, too. I know Stone Mountain and College Park were hit hard as well.

[spacelord75]

Originally Posted by Bobsky42

Are the predictions the same for mid-town, VaHi as well?

These areas will fair much better than others due to always high demand and being firmly established (at least in terms of single family homes). Condos are a different story, but once the cost of owning one is equivalent to going rents in the area, that is usually a sign that things have stabilized. You will likely see a slight over-correction due to negative attitudes towards condos currently and a significant glut of inventory.

The general rule in real estate is the best inventory is the last to go down and the first to go back up in any economic downturn.

The other poster's comment re: gas prices is a very real concern and another reason why in-town neighborhoods (specifically nice ones like you mentioned) should fare better over the next few years.

[jpatlanta]

Originally Posted by Bobsky42

Are the predictions the same for mid-town, VaHi as well?

No IMHO I think both areas have hit bottom and are safe and will rebound first.

I would be extremely nervous buying anything outside the i285 with the exception of parts of Dunwoody and a tiny bit of Sandy Springs right now. If in any doubt rent.

The reason places like Vinings havn't taken a hit so much is desirability, location and owners generally being wealthier and less leveraged. Same with Buckhead, Brookhaven, VH etc. A person in for example Cherokee county with 3000 sq ft house is paying the same unitlites etc as a person in Vinings and more to comute with probably a third the income. Inflation/recession etc will hit these people much harder.

I also think some Midtown condos have bottomed and are a good value. Long term a building like 1010 Peachtree for example is going to be a great investment and already a great area to live.

[mrpanda]

There are certain areas in Atlanta that have seen 12 - 14% rebound year over year since Jan 2010.

Four areas that come to mind are: Alpharetta, Milton, Johns Creek, and Roswell.

Cities Median Home price Appreciation since Jan 2010
Milton$366,200 13.6% Alpharetta$271,300 14.1% Roswell$250,900 12.9% Johns Creek$286,000 13.0%

While many cities are still declining in Atlanta, it appears that these 4 have hit its ultimate bottom in Jan 2010 and quickly rebounding.

Even if mortgage rates rise to 7% homes in these 4 cities, homes are still easily affordable considering the 6 figures median income of these four cities.