No quick recovery for metro housing market (avg price down 55k) (Suwanee: to rent, condo)

[RandyWatson13]

No quick recovery for metro housing market *| ajc.com

Who else is in the market?

[anothertntony]

I am tentatively watching it. I don't see any reason to jump in soon though. I can't imagine that prices will take off anytime in the near future and the ability to move quickly is an asset in the current economy.

[JPD]

I'm hoping to move near MARTA and the Beltline asap. This will most likely force me to rent out my current home, and then sell it once the market becomes more favorable for sellers. Making a profit on my house is a very low priority. That would be very nice, but my main goal is a significant lifestyle change.

[testa50]

I'm about to close on a Midtown condo. I was becoming alarmed that the awesome deals seemed to be disappearing from the MLS, so I decided to pull the trigger. A lot of buildings seem to have half or less of the amount of resale inventory active compared to what was around when I first started looking a year ago.

[sjuraud]

Yep, I'm in the same boat. Having to rent out my house because I can't sell it and not get totally screwed on the deal. I think the US has reached a point where most of the homeowners that were going to default already have. So I think most of the would be sellers are just waiting on the sidelines for more favorable selling climate. I know it will be a few years though. All the buyers out there beware that the days of getting a steal on a home are probably soon to disappear. I refuse to not only loose all the equity that I've put in over the last 10 years but to also have to pay out of my own pocket for the short amount at closing.

[K-SawDude]

I do wonder if there will be a sort of "cascade" effect once people decide to get off the sidelines. That is, once a "bottom" is perceived, will buyers start to feel the pressure of a rush to get the best deal possible, thereby pushing up home values at a fairly quick pace?

With barely any new construction over the last few years, inventory has really been going down. I guess it just depends on the level of "shadow" inventory out there still--not only what the banks have kept off the market, but solvent sellers who are waiting for better pricing opportunities.

Especially if the jobs outlook is genuinely improving, my gut says the housing market will start to turn around in the middle of next year. But with mortgage rates at crazy low levels, right now may in fact be the bottom of housing "affordability" (for non-cash buyers).

[testa50]

Originally Posted by K-SawDude

I do wonder if there will be a sort of "cascade" effect once people decide to get off the sidelines. That is, once a "bottom" is perceived, will buyers start to feel the pressure of a rush to get the best deal possible, thereby pushing up home values at a fairly quick pace?

With barely any new construction over the last few years, inventory has really been going down. I guess it just depends on the level of "shadow" inventory out there still--not only what the banks have kept off the market, but solvent sellers who are waiting for better pricing opportunities.

Especially if the jobs outlook is genuinely improving, my gut says the housing market will start to turn around in the middle of next year. But with mortgage rates at crazy low levels, right now may in fact be the bottom of housing "affordability" (for non-cash buyers).

I think a counteracting force is going to be all the sellers sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to heat up. Then again, a lot of those sellers will then become buyers once they sell their houses. It all leads me to feel like it's a complex market that's going to be tough to predict from a resale supply/demand standpoint.

However, one thing that I think benefits intown in general: the purchase prices for resales and new construction alike are currently well below new construction costs. Once the new construction is absorbed, demand will only be able to be met by resales until more new units are delivered.

Ultimately, no new units will be delivered until resale price rises to new construction price (or the adjusted value of it).

This doesn't really apply to the suburbs as much, where people are a lot less sensitive to location.

[tigers84]

Market is a loooonggg way from recovery.

How many times have folks come on here and declared "Now is the time to buy! Prices and affordability are fantastic! Pricing levels simply cant get any cheaper! Buy NOW or lose out!" Answer: Very many. And each time the market just got cheaper.

Builders are still building homes, just not as many. There is a HUGE shadow investory. Renting is becoming preferrable versus owning. There was WAY too much capital allocation into unproductive housing stock. It will take years to work off.

If you must: Buy for any reason other than its a good deal and you can be assured of a profit. Buy because you want to live somewhere specifically and cant get there any other way. Above all, buy LESS than you can afford.

[toxicdebt]

I bought a bargain steal in Suwanee a few months back. There were others available at the time. Searching through the properties now, you cannot find such steals. If this area is any guide, the market has bottomed. Now it's only time. Perceptions will change, as people realise the prices are going up and they don't want to "miss out". So there will be a rush to get back in. Warning, you need to pull the trigger as soon as you can.

[lastminutemom]

Originally Posted by toxicdebt

I bought a bargain steal in Suwanee a few months back. There were others available at the time. Searching through the properties now, you cannot find such steals. If this area is any guide, the market has bottomed. Now it's only time. Perceptions will change, as people realise the prices are going up and they don't want to "miss out". So there will be a rush to get back in. Warning, you need to pull the trigger as soon as you can.

I disagree. I think the drop in inventory is seasonal and come spring, as people who have been waiting to put their homes on the market can't wait anymore, there will be plenty of homes on the market.

Investors can absorb only so much product, there have to be real homeowners out there to buy.