Metro Atlanta in 2020 (predictions) (Nashville, Forsyth: transplants, real estate, how much)

[cope1989]

When we reach the next census in 2020 and census workers begin analyzing the population and demographics of metro Atlanta, what will they find? I see 3 options.

1) After the great recession of the late 2000's and early 2010s metro Atlanta was never able to recover and adapt to the restructured economy. It was no longer a growth magnet in the 2010s and most population increases came from births. Demographic trends continue and whites have declined to 45% of the metro population. (growth +250,000)

2) After the great recession, Metro Atlanta entered a period of stable growth, though not nearly as rapid as in the previous decade. The suburbs expand a bit but a great deal of the growth happens in the urban core. Whites decline to a minority of 46%. The area is still a black mecca and the black population tops well over 2 million. (growth +600,000)

3) Metro Atlanta makes several smart moves and picks up an even greater share of growth than in the previous decade. Suburbs continue to expand while the city of Atlanta becomes whiter. Hispanic, Black and Asian growth continues to accelerate and whites are now 40% of the population. (growth +1,300,000)


Which of these 3 scenarios seems most likely to you? I'd like this thread to be a place where all of us can throw in our predictions about the future of metro Atlanta, in terms of growth, jobs, politics, diversity or whatever.

Just an FYI: Proximity one shows Atlanta growing by about the same number in the next decade as we did in the previous one (a little over 1 million) to a population of 6.3 million in 2020

A bizjournals population estimate shows we'll grow more rapidly, and end up at around 7.3 million by 2025

Haven't found any projections that show very slow growth in Atlanta in the next few years, but it's still a possibility.

(I'll try to get the links up soon)

[DaBurgh]

I say #2 - Hartsfield Airport, fortune 500 companies, and the nice weather isn't going anywhere... which will continue to attract people. However Atlanta faces competition from Charlotte and Nashville for potential business relocation destinations, and builders will probably be more cautious/ there's a lot of excess housing that needs to clear the market.

[cope1989]

I don't know, I think Atlanta's at the point where its growth can kind of build on itself, and we still have so many more amenities than Nashville and Charlotte in our respective region. I'll predict that Atlanta bounces back pretty quickly in about two years but grows very differently. People opt for denser development and less sprawl. Suburban development still exists but it's not as expansive.

[Stars&StripesForever]

Actually, I see a very slow decade for Atlanta.

I see metro Atlanta CSA possibly rising to 6.1 million, while the MSA only gets to about 5.7 million. However, realistically, I think the CSA only gets to 6.0 million, while the MSA only gets to 5.6 million. All in all, metro Atlanta might add 300,000-400,000 this decade, tops, but probably closer to 250,000.

I don't see the hispanic population rising, I really don't. I don't even think the latest statistics have even taken into account the number of illegal Mexicans that have gone back to Mexico as a result of the economic downturn. I see the hispanic population declining by 30% of their overall population. Anyone can tell a big difference over the past few years as a result of the economic downturn and, perhaps, the new immigration law.

Black migration to Atlanta will still occur, but it has slowed considerably over the past few years, just as it has for everyone else. Many blacks that migrated to Atlanta from the late 90s to about 2007 did so without a job, as it was seen as the place to be for blacks. Most blacks that will migrate to the area will do so if they have family connections in the area, and if they have a job. I don't see the black population increase of the region being over fifty percent of the overall population increase in the region, much like it was from 2000-2007. In fact, I'd say that it probably drops down to around 30-35% of the overall regional increase, comparable to the black component of the population.

The white population will increase as a percentage of newcomers, but given economic realities, it will pale in raw numbers to previous decades. That said, the white population will hold ground, in my opinion, as a percentage of the region's population, at around 54%.

The actual city of Atlanta will probably increase twenty thousand or so, with the white population of the city increasing to forty four percent of the population and the black population decreasing to fifty percent of the population.

[atl85]

HA. I'm not sure that adding 800,000 people in 8 years should be considered a "slow" decade. That's a net migration of almost 300 new people every single day for the next 8 years!

I believe cheap real estate, nice weather, a slow pace of life and a relative abundance of well paying jobs will continue to attract people to the area. By 2020 our metro area will extend well into Bartow, Carroll, Coweta, Spalding, Newton, Walton, Barrow, Hall, Forsyth, and Cherokee. I think an abundance of high end stores will continue to locate in Buckhead. Atlanta will gain more and more respect as a world class city as it will continue to be refined by newcomers. Our traffic will worsen with the added population and there will be increased pressure for local officials to start seriously considering more transit options. Atlanta's Hispanic and Asian population will grow rapidly. Many Black Americans will continue to move here too. The demographics of the city of Atlanta will show the White American population growing, while the Black population will continue to dominate in Clayton, DeKalb, and S. Fulton.

I look forward to what this area will look like. It amazes me how much this area has changed in such a short period of time.

[ATLTJL]

I pretty much agree with Stars&Stripes.

However, I think this is actually a very good thing. Part of the growing pains Atlanta has experienced over the past 20 years have been from unbridled practically cancerous growth. A decade of slower growth might be just what the area needs to reflect a bit and figure out exactly what it wants to be instead of just bigger and better.

We should be using this time to invest in things like schools, transit, and urban development. I know that's difficult to do if the city isn't growing rapidly, but it has to be done. We have grown so fast and for so long, I think a little breather is exactly what we need. Once we have gotten all of our ducks in a row and are on the right track, then the growth can and will increase again.

[Columbuskidd92]

It probably will be the same,I hate to say this.

[waronxmas]

Contrary to popular belief, the majority of Atlanta's population growth comes from natural increase not from relocations.

For example (and this is typical of growth in Atlanta for the last 30 years), in 2009 Metro Atlanta had a net increase of 89,179 residents. Here's the breakdown:

Births: 83,003
Deaths: 31,591
New International Immigrants: 20,288
New Domestic Transplants: 17,479

(Source: Population Estimates (http://www.census.gov/popest/metro/CBSA-est2009-comp-chg.html - broken link))

So as you can see, despite having a rough time coming out of this recession (mostly due to major parts of this economy such as travel, tourism, and real estate being affected by the generally bad economy in the country) we will continue to grow at an enormous rate population wise because the main driving force for that growth are babies...who don't need jobs and don't buy houses.

This is not to say though that transplants do not have a big impact on our growth. These children overwhelmingly are the result of transplants whom are young and are from demographics that have a higher birthrate (Asians, Blacks, Latinos). I also don't mean to say the bad economy will not have an effect on natural growth since while babies don't need jobs, their parents do. Despite the lingering bad effects of the recession though it isn't "Detroit bad" and I don't see us getting to the point when the economy here will force people to relocate to greener pastures.

Also keep in mind that contrary to another myth, this isn't Atlanta's first bad recession in recent times. There were similarly bad economic times in the 1980s, and milder bad times in the 1990s and early 00s. In the 1980s recession similar memes that we see today in the media and this thread developed asking whether this was "the end of Atlanta's glory days"...only to gain four times the amount of residents than Atlanta had up until that point in the next two and a half decades.

Atlanta has always been good at doing two things: reinventing itself and going big in it's plans for the future even when they made zero sense (which they often did). People often forget that Atlanta has already done this once and that the Atlanta of today is only tangibly linked to the pre-middle 20th century Atlanta. This city used to have an industrial based economy centered around manufacturing and railroads not unlike that of the Rusbelt or Birmingham. The reason why we didn't end up like those cities is that we had to foresight in this city to reinvent our economy to address the coming reality that remaining an industrial city was not going to be good for us in the long term. We replaced our passenger rail hub (which was one of the largest in North America at it's height) with air transit. We replaced the dying factories by attracting white collar businesses seeking lower operating costs and an easier to deal with business climate.

What built the Atlanta of today for the last 60 years won't go away, but I see us moving in to a new phase where we start to cultivate new industries to keep the economy growing. We can already see this happening with the way the film industry has grown and we're taking steps now to become a biotech hub and (ironically) a major rail hub. With an already diverse economy (we have one of the most diverse in the country) we'll pull out of this recession stronger than ever.

[cqholt]

I think Atlanta will continue to grow, but most new construction will happen ITP. Ass the economy recovers and gas rises again the suburbs will become less desirable. Gwinnett and Cobb counties will vote MARTA in and lines will extend into those areas, creating dense development corridors that help those counties economies. The BeltLine will be built, people will begin traveling around the urban core on LRT. Streetcars will carry people around downtown and up peachtree street. many of Atlanta's neighborhoods will continue to gentrify and property values increase. This will lead to better schools and better infrastructure. No new highways will be built and the existing interstates will not add anymore lanes, because there is no more ROW. Mass Transit will be Atlanta's future in competing with other cities. Atlanta needs to rise above other sunbelt cities and compete with other world-class cities instead.

[testa50]

Yeah, what wox said.

(Also: education. That will be a MAJOR industry in tomorrow's Atlanta--even moreso than it is in today's Atlanta. As long as we don't mess up the HOPE scholarship too much, that is.)