Highrise vs. Midrise

[Mishap]

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

You recognize that this is by far the exception and not the rule, right?

Which building do you live in? They did something right.

Viewpoint. Most of the other buildings in the area are similarly occupied. There may be foreclosures but few are as bad off as Twelve and a few other buildings in AS. Even Luxe is almost full.

It's a timing issue. Viewpoint finished in late '08 so pre-sales were to people that could get past underwriters and there were relatively few investors willing to buy new units when foreclosures are out there. They also reduced prices relatively early in the game (not that they were as high as Twelve) so it was often cheaper than existing units nearby. By '09 anyone that could get a loan wasn't a speculator so it's been fairly stable. The banks verified every penny I had in savings even though I was coming in w/ 20% down, flawless credit, and stable W2 job where the loan balance was a lot less than 2X my salary. Buildings that came later in the high end (Atlantic/Brookwood) were unsellable b/c they're just too far past what most Atlantans can afford. W/o enough people closing, the building is untouchable by most lenders so you have a chicken/egg problem.

Twelve AS hit the market at peak in '05-'06 and people had to go in on the lottery just to get the rights to buy one. People were putting zero down and signing ridiculous loans just for the chance to flip it for huge profits.

Condos are definitely hurting but can you say there aren't entire neighborhoods in E. Cobb that are virtually empty or unfinished? I remember million dollar McMansions sitting unfinished left and right when I lived out that way. If my condo falls 20%, I can recover from a 40k loss. If an E. Cobb 5k+ sqft behemoth loses 20%, you're talking more than the entire purchase price of my condo.

Just as certain areas have been stable, certain condos have done better than others. I've also seen areas in the burbs like my parents home in Snellville where neighbors are selling at early/mid '90s prices b/c they built a massive glut of large 5-7bdr homes in marginal school districts. They actually paved horse pastures to put in more homes and there are plenty of concrete pads sitting around. The same goes for huge swaths of Lawrenceville and Duluth.

[ATLTJL]

I still can't look at the data for Viewpoint, which means it must not be sold through yet. Unless you're a realtor, it's really difficult to see foreclosure listings on condo developments that are still selling from the builder. I thought Viewpoint sold out, but I guess not.

Viewpoint was one of my favorite buildings. The only thing that gives me pause with it is that right when everything starts picking up and looking good is when they'll break ground on the second tower. Then that new inventory may affect prices.

You're on hallowed ground. If you're ever trying to fall asleep and hear the faint thump of techno music, those are just the ghosts of Backstreet.

[Mishap]

I just got an email saying the last unit was sold so they are selling any remaining parking spaces at 15k each (too rich for my blood). Maybe it's not through yet. I'm sure there have been a few foreclosures still but given the lack of creative financing in '08-'09 and increased underwriting, I'd think it's less volatile than condos that went up in '05 or earlier. I made 4 offers on units in Spire (1 in Metropolis) and no one would come close to my asking b/c they all owed a lot more than what I calculated to be fair prices. Viewpoint eventually did come into my range which is how I wound up here.

I have no doubt they could build more units on the lot but I didn't buy it only b/c I loved the view (it's quite nice though). Novare hanging onto control of the HOA suggests they are actively trying to develop the rest of the property. That said, if they can't get more than at least 250-300/sqft I don't think they can get much off the ground. It's just not worth the risk especially since they lost the Atlantic. If they build low income apartments, we may have some problems but I'm hoping the cost justification isn't there either. My loaded cost including HOA/property tax is still a good bit less than when I was renting across the street so I'm ok w/ the just the tax deduction and conveniences of living a mile from office, 3 blocks from MARTA, and 15 min from the airport. Even if the property is flat for a good while longer, I can do just fine although at some point I would like a bit more space.

[ATLTJL]

Unless I am remembering wrong, Viewpoint was originally slated as a twin tower project with an option to build a third if they wanted to. Like most of the other twin tower project in Atlanta, it was scaled back to a single tower. As far as I know, Novare still owns the land and still plans to complete the project some day, which is probably why they are holding onto the HOA as you suggested.

Novare seems to now be in the apartment business, so I wonder if they would ever complete the second towner as a rental. If they did, I'm sure it wouldn't be low income. If I were taking a wild, wild, guess, I would say that they will build a scaled down version of the second tower and build it as rental. I hope they don't because I think the symetry would look odd, so I'd like to see them build the second as planned. I assume they will permanently scrap the third tower and sell that land. But I'm just talking out of my behind, I have absolutely no idea what they will do.

For some reason, through all of this, Spire and especially Metropolis seemed to hang onto their values fairly decently.

[Mishap]

Think it's supposed to be a triple tower called Trilogy. Basically it looks like a taller version of Metropolis' dual towers glued to the back of the current tower. They still hold the entire block including that decrepit multi-home building behind the sbx. The offset tower would definitely be quite ugly and absolutely destroys the view of the units on the Eastern corners (why I avoided that side).

Condos are still higher profit than rentals since your capital isn't tied up as long and I would hope they plan on keeping it decent sized regardless of what kind of tower they eventually build. Otherwise there would be a lot of units looking at the 10 stories of parking deck of the current tower. If they go for both at the same time, you're probably looking at a 9 figure construction loan so I'd think it's still a way off given how slow units are moving still.