Decline in Atlanta home prices worst in recorded history (Sandy Springs: short sales, houses)

[afonega1]

Originally Posted by back2dc

Yeah but Warren Buffet has billions tucked away where he can live comfortably if he makes one bad investment. These poor families who buy houses that are underwater don't have backup assets. That one bad property investment in Atlanta could ruin them for life.

Buffet also invests in the global market, and not just in real estate. Atlanta real estate is just one submarket and currently the weakest in the nation. You're not comparing apples to apples.

These people that buy your houses are going to be stuck with cheaply built McMansions out in the exurbs in a declining Atlanta economy, as gas and energy prices continue to skyrocket.

That scenario WILL happen in the next few years as China and India drain natural resources and cause energy costs to rise. People who bought your homes in sprawlsville won't be able to afford to fill their tanks for the long commutes, repair their shoddily built homes, or cool/heat the massive interiors. When it comes to unload the property and flee Atlanta, they'll be unable to sell but at a loss, as educated people have already moved to more forward-thinking cities with less gas-draining sprawl and comprehensive public transportation networks.

Your quaint optimism with Johns Creek is very much stuck in 1980's Atlanta.

Atlanta BeltLine > Home

[FromGA]

Originally Posted by mrpanda

Warren Buffet - "Be greedy when everyone is scared, and be scared when everyone is greedy."

Using a 2000 analogy, the skill set needed here is to identify the difference between pets dot com (and several others that are still at probably a fraction of their 2000 level), and amazon dot com. If you bought the latter at 2000 lows, you should be doing well. We can prdict the future all we want, only time will tell.



Gary Shilling (see point #2):
Ten sectors investors should avoid in 2012 - CSMonitor.com

He seems to be overall bearish.

[FromGA]

Originally Posted by testa50

... but Atlanta gained no jobs between February and March. That flies in the face of seasonal trends; usually we gain ~15,000. This is the second worst March report in 20 years; only 2009 was worse. Housing prices continuing to slide doesn't help.

The Atlanta unemployment rate will be released tomorrow and in all likelihood it will go down, but that won't mean very much. We are in a tight spot and our recovery relies on the national economy doing well. The most recent national data hasn't been promising.

testa, can you provide a source for this.

Apparently, Georgia did add over 10K jobs in this period.
http://onlineathens.com/local-news/2...traight-months
"The state gained 35,600 jobs since March 2011, including 13,900 between February and March. "

(yes, this is GA, not Atlanta).

[researchnerd]

Originally Posted by testa50

Haha...and Atlanta of course has the highest increase in rent over the last 12 months.

http://media.marketwire.com/attachme...ionsReport.pdf
Atlanta apartment rents rose 6.3% in first quarter - Atlanta Business Chronicle

You aren't kidding...the rental market in Atlanta is crazy. Last year I moved from a 5-yr-old single-family rental home in rural Cherokee County to an 85-yr-old single-family rental home in an intown neighborhood, to be closer to work. Compared with the old house, we now have 500 SF less living space, much less closet/storage space, no garage, no basement, and 2 acres less land, but we're paying 60% more in rent. If we'd had to stick to the same budget, we'd be crammed into a 2-bedroom apartment or an 800-sf ramshackle bungalow (we looked at a few of those). I applied what I'm saving in gas money to the rent and it almost evens out. I just hope the rent doesn't go up every year, or I'm going to be priced out of the city.

It is also very competitive - we house-hunted for months, and even in our transitional neighborhood (Kirkwood) there wasn't much out there for less. We lost one other house we liked because we didn't jump on it quickly enough. I've been renting off and on since 1980, and I have never seen anything like the current market.

[RandyWatson13]

Atlanta..home to the overreact generation...

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by RandyWatson13

Atlanta..home to the overreact generation...

And how...SMH

[GeorgiaLakeSearch]

Originally Posted by back2dc

Yeah but Warren Buffet has billions tucked away where he can live comfortably if he makes one bad investment. These poor families who buy houses that are underwater don't have backup assets. That one bad property investment in Atlanta could ruin them for life.

Buffet also invests in the global market, and not just in real estate. Atlanta real estate is just one submarket and currently the weakest in the nation. You're not comparing apples to apples.

Name one development on the horizon that is going to fundamentally change Atlanta around and raise property values again? More tax cuts? Another Olympics? These people that buy your houses are going to be stuck with cheaply built McMansions out in the exurbs in a declining Atlanta economy, as gas and energy prices continue to skyrocket.

That scenario WILL happen in the next few years as China and India drain natural resources and cause energy costs to rise. People who bought your homes in sprawlsville won't be able to afford to fill their tanks for the long commutes, repair their shoddily built homes, or cool/heat the massive interiors. When it comes to unload the property and flee Atlanta, they'll be unable to sell but at a loss, as educated people have already moved to more forward-thinking cities with less gas-draining sprawl and comprehensive public transportation networks.

Your quaint optimism with Johns Creek is very much stuck in 1980's Atlanta.

People starting buying in exurbs expecting something exciting to happen. I don't know maybe they thought Buckhead, Ansley, Druid Hills, etc. would all turn in to ghettos or something so everybody would be flocking to Forsyth & far North Fulton.

The whole McMansion thing is ridiculous. The main problem with them is people might of been able to come up with the money to buy one but; will they be able to keep up the maintenance and fully furnish one? Lets say you have 1.5 million to spend on a house in town vs. the exurbs. Think about how much smaller the in town house/less flashy from the outside is yet it has higher quality finishes? But in the exurbs they build bigger yet use lower quality finishes.

You cannot only be investing in Atlanta real estate. It is a bad idea, you have to have diversified assets. I have many rental properties in Atlanta, but I still have many other investments totally outside of real estate. I also invest internationally because you need to if you want to have complete financial security. I have foreign companies I use and foreign bank accounts. Oh and I pay normal US taxes. You know how people attacked Mitt Romney(I am not a supporter of him, but I might vote for him if Ron Paul doesn't get on the ticket, because Obama has done nothing.) for having foreign accounts, well since we know about them they were on his tax returns so they were not a secret. People think foreign means secret, tax evading and illegal. Foreign accounts/ LLC's/ Trusts are not for tax advantages for most people they are for asset protection.

Compare

Forsyth: (St. Marlo)
8075 Derbyshire Ct Duluth GA - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - MLS #4319089 - Realtor.com®

VS.

Atlanta: (Morningside-Lenox)
1753 Pine Ridge Dr NE Atlanta GA - New Home for Sale - MLS #5011873 - Realtor.com®

Atlanta: (Ansley Park)
88 Peachtree Cir NE Atlanta GA - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - MLS #4224498 - Realtor.com®

Atlanta: (Ansley Park)
92 Golf Cir NE Atlanta GA - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - MLS #4335576 - Realtor.com®

Atlanta: (Peachtree Battle/ Buckhead)
221 Peachtree Battle Ave NW Atlanta GA - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - MLS #4194967 - Realtor.com®

or

Forsyth: (St. Marlo) (This house is a great example of the exurb trends)(the newest trend seems to be a faux rustic facade)
10030 Campestral Ct Duluth GA - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - MLS #4291939 - Realtor.com®

VS.

Atlanta: (Buckhead on West Paces Ferry)
855 W Paces Ferry Rd NW Atlanta GA - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - MLS #4309243 - Realtor.com®

Atlanta: (Druid Hills outside City of Atlanta limits unincorporated DeKalb)
2010 N Ponce de Leon Ave NE Atlanta GA - Home For Sale and Real Estate Listing - MLS #5001650 - Realtor.com®

[GeorgiaLakeSearch]

Originally Posted by Gnutella

It's probably all the exurban **** losing half its value that's dragging Atlanta's numbers down. Draw a line connecting the following suburbs:

Kennesaw > Alpharetta > Suwanee > Lawrenceville > Snellville > Lithonia > Stockbridge > Jonesboro > Riverdale > Austell > Kennesaw

Everything inside that line is probably holding its value much better than anything outside it. Not necessarily saying that prices are rising inside that line, just that houses currently on the market outside it are mostly worthless at this point.

I agree people think far out places will be the next big thing, but when the market drops they really drop. One of the Forsyth promoters on here I saw in an old post said Johns Creek would be the next Beverly Hills! Doesn't everybody know Buckhead is the Beverly Hills of the south!

People have to realize far out places are not suburbs because they cannot easily commute into ATL for work. They are exurbs at best. Milton is one of those places that gets hyped up but then those people will just move on to the next place. In 30 years people will probably be living up by the Tennessee boarder saying it is an Atlanta suburb.

[Stars&StripesForever]

Originally Posted by GeorgiaLakeSearch

I agree people think far out places will be the next big thing, but when the market drops they really drop. One of the Forsyth promoters on here I saw in an old post said Johns Creek would be the next Beverly Hills! Doesn't everybody know Buckhead is the Beverly Hills of the south!

People have to realize far out places are not suburbs because they cannot easily commute into ATL for work. They are exurbs at best. Milton is one of those places that gets hyped up but then those people will just move on to the next place. In 30 years people will probably be living up by the Tennessee boarder saying it is an Atlanta suburb.

Being 30 or 40 minutes from downtown is not being 2 hours from downtown.

You're not going to see the urbanized, built-up, developed area spanning much more than it already has. As it stands, there is suburban development all the way up to Coal Mountain along Ga. 400, pretty consistent development up to Cumming. You're not likely to see that expand beyond Dawsonville and the outlet mall. Along I-85, consistent development currently extends a few miles past Hamilton Mill Road in Dacula. You're not likely to see the developed span reach beyond the first Jackson County exit (about five miles past Braselton). As it stands, Braselton now has a lot of suburban development, though much of it is patchy. On the I-75 side, you're not likely to see development expand north of Cartersville. Currently, there is consistent development up to Lake Alatoona along I-75, a break, then the Cartersville built-up area, which is technically part of metro Atlanta. However, it's only separated by about eight miles of undeveloped area. Along I-575, you're not likely going to see it extend beyond where it already is. As of now, you have consistent development all the way up to Canton. However, because away from the interstate, especially between Canton and Cumming, there is a lot of undeveloped land, making the area exurban in nature, you're more likely to see these fill-in before you see much more development up to Ball Ground, which, in its own right, has developed some. On the south side, I don't see development extending beyond Locust Grove. However, as it is, there is consistent development all the way to McDonough, and then patchy development to Locust Grove. Southwest of the city, along I-85, it does appear that development stops right past the Tyrone/Peachtree City exit. However, development extends southward along 74? westward toward Newnan. I can see, perhaps, development extending down to Newnan along I-85, but not much past. On the east side, development is consistent along I-20 to Conyers and western parts of Newton, even to Covington in some regards. I don't see development extending beyond Covington. West of the city along I-20, I can see development extending all the way out to Temple, as Winston, Villa Rica, and Temple are already exurban in nature and have received a lot of suburban development. Consistent development already extends out to the western fringes of Douglasville. Beyond Temple, however, I don't see it.

When it comes down to it, I'm saying that you're not going to see much more expansion, simply a fill-in of where the current exurban boundaries are.

[lastminutemom]

Thirty or 40 minutes from downtown in rush hour is maybe Dunwoody, Sandy Springs, parts of East Cobb, P'tree City, Conyers etc.

It isn't Braselton, Dawsonville, etc.