Hearings planned on potential Atlanta-Charlotte rail line (Gainesville, Washington: living, airport)

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

I honestly see this type of service going into effect before HSR between Charlotte and Atlanta. Do you think there's strong demand for flights leaving every 30 minutes between the two cities now? If not, then how does that affect your view of a potential HSR line?

Today (a Wednesday), three airlines are flying 56 flights direct between ATL and CLT. Looks like most the flights are MD-88s and A320s which each hold 130-200 passengers. And the major US airlines are running about mid 80%s load factor right now. That works out to about 6,720 trips a day or 2.5 mil a year between the two cities. That is just direct air trips. Seems like pretty good demand to me. If you offer competitive service at a fair price you should be able to fill up a train or two between the two cities. Competition is good for consumers.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by jsvh

Today (a Wednesday), three airlines are flying 56 flights direct between ATL and CLT. Looks like most the flights are MD-88s and A320s which each hold 130-200 passengers. And the major US airlines are running about mid 80%s load factor right now. That works out to about 6,720 trips a day or 2.5 mil a year between the two cities. That is just direct air trips. Seems like pretty good demand to me. If you offer competitive service at a fair price you should be able to fill up a train or two between the two cities. Competition is good for consumers.

But I would imagine that a large number of those passengers are connecting to other flights. It doesn't make much sense to me to fly from Charlotte to Atlanta if it only takes me less than four hours to drive the same distance.

With the Delta Shuttle between DCA and LGA, all of those passengers are actually leaving the airport and going into those cities (typically on business). The ridership for the air shuttles overlaps to a great degree with the ridership of the Acela.

I just don't see the demand for travel between Charlotte and Atlanta.

[BajanYankee]

Also, when I check Amtrak's website, I see 39 trains leaving from Penn Station (NYC) to Union Station (DC) on Friday.

I see one train leaving from Atlanta to Charlotte on the same date.

Amtrak - Reservations - Fare Finder

[kferq]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

But I would imagine that a large number of those passengers are connecting to other flights. It doesn't make much sense to me to fly from Charlotte to Atlanta if it only takes me less than four hours to drive the same distance.

With the Delta Shuttle between DCA and LGA, all of those passengers are actually leaving the airport and going into those cities (typically on business). The ridership for the air shuttles overlaps to a great degree with the ridership of the Acela.

I just don't see the demand for travel between Charlotte and Atlanta.

In terms of driving time, it depends. You can get there in less than 4 if you are lucky and drive straight through. If you hit the Atlanta suburbs at the wrong time, it can add a hour on the trip. The idea that Southern highways are wide open no longer applies on the highly industrial I-85 corridor. The traffic between here and Charlotte is growing rapidly and there are some bottlenecks through South Carolina as well. The truck traffic is very heavy, often slows you down, and it sometimes makes for an unpleasant ride.

In terms of demand for an endpoint, you are right that much of that traffic makes connections at the airports. With the high speed rail planned to have a station at the Atlanta airport, it would be possible to make the first leg of the flight by train. However, there are a large number of business connections based on regional headquarters. Atlanta is a much bigger endpoint than Charlotte and good rail connections to Raleigh and The Research Triangle from Charlotte will help drive demand for Atlantans to travel on the route.

Also it is important to realize that most Amtrak traffic does not ride end to end of the line. The intermediate stations account for a lot of the traffic, often because they do not have good air service.

[kferq]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Also, when I check Amtrak's website, I see 39 trains leaving from Penn Station (NYC) to Union Station (DC) on Friday.

I see one train leaving from Atlanta to Charlotte on the same date.

Amtrak - Reservations - Fare Finder

I think you need to learn more about Atlanta. The Crescent doesn't go through Charlotte, so there are no direct trains. Atlanta's Amtrak station blocks a freight line, so Amtrak cannot expand the number of trains until a new station is built. The Crescent sells out in Atlanta going North, so we have no idea of demand.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by kferq

In terms of driving time, it depends. You can get there in less than 4 if you are lucky and drive straight through. If you hit the Atlanta suburbs at the wrong time, it can add a hour on the trip. The idea that Southern highways are wide open no longer applies on the highly industrial I-85 corridor. The traffic between here and Charlotte is growing rapidly and there are some bottlenecks through South Carolina as well. The truck traffic is very heavy, often slows you down, and it sometimes makes for an unpleasant ride.

I've driven down I-85 from Greenville many, many times. I know the traffic can be bad. But my point still stands. Why would I fly if I could simply drive? It's certainly not saving me money. And it's not saving time. By the time I drive to Hartsfield, check in, go through TSA, take the shuttle to the terminal, board the plane, etc. I could be halfway to Charlotte, if not farther. Then the time it takes me to get off the plane, go to baggage claim (possibly), wait on my ride, get to my destination, I could have been in a hotel or with friends with my teeth wrapped around a Corona. An Atlanta to DC flight would make sense but not an Atlanta to Charlotte flight.

Originally Posted by kferq

In terms of demand for an endpoint, you are right that much of that traffic makes connections at the airports. With the high speed rail planned to have a station at the Atlanta airport, it would be possible to make the first leg of the flight by train.

I don't understand what you mean here. So if I'm traveling from Charlotte to LAX, I'm supposed to take a train to Atlanta's airport and then fly from there? Why would I do that? If anything, that would probably cost me more money. And even if it costs the same (or even less), it's much easier to transfer from one flight to another than it is to (1) get to a train station in Charlotte; (2) get off the train in Atlanta and (3) go through airport security in Atlanta. That's doing way too much work and I don't think you can realistically expect anyone to do that.

Originally Posted by kferq

However, there are a large number of business connections based on regional headquarters. Atlanta is a much bigger endpoint than Charlotte and good rail connections to Raleigh and The Research Triangle from Charlotte will help drive demand for Atlantans to travel on the route.

That's fine, but that doesn't mean a critical mass of people need to be in either city every day for business. The Acela works because of the Washington-New York power/money axis (as well as high density cities sandwiched in between, i.e., Philly, Baltimore, Wilmington and Newark). There are lobbyists, contractors, regulators, businessmen, lawyers, etc. that need to travel between DC and New York all the time. How could you be an antitrust attorney in NYC, for example, without dealing with the DOJ? There's no relationship like that between Charlotte and Atlanta. And there's very little population density between those cities.

Originally Posted by kferq

Also it is important to realize that most Amtrak traffic does not ride end to end of the line. The intermediate stations account for a lot of the traffic, often because they do not have good air service.

There's a big difference when the intermediate stations accounting for "a lot of the traffic" are Baltimore and Philadelphia compared to Athens, GA and Greenville, SC.

[tikigod311]

ONe thing people should realize with competing with air travel in Atlanta. Delta will almost always match or beat whatever fares are offered by another competing airline.

Southwest came in and everyone thought it was going to be huge additon to ATL. Well, Delta has constantly price matched or beat their fares, now they are scaling back operations out of ATL, including Airtran.

Delta will make sure the train is not a better deal than flying. You can count on it.

[kferq]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

There's no relationship like that between Charlotte and Atlanta. And there's very little population density between those cities.
There's a big difference when the intermediate stations accounting for "a lot of the traffic" are Baltimore and Philadelphia compared to Athens, GA and Greenville, SC.

I think that a major difference in the way you and I look at this problem is that you are looking at the current population, while I am looking at the projected population by the time the project comes to fruition. This is not the Northeast: these areas are growing rapidly. The Northern most route from Atlanta through Gwinett, Gainesville, Anderson, Greenville, Spartenburg, Charlotte and Raleigh contains areas with population growth rates of 3-6% in the two year period 2010-2012. A lot of that population growth is occurring on a thin string of a highway and alternatives to that highway are needed (as you realize from driving down it).

Intercity rail is growing rapidly in North Carolina between Raleigh and Charlotte and the connection down to the Greenville/Spartenburg industrial area and on to Atlanta is needed. Do we currently need Acela type service? No. Your arguments are exactly right for the current population. But they are not going to be right 10 years from now. Georgia and North Carolina are the 8th and 10th largest states and if current growth rates continue they will be 5th and 6th. While that growth is spread in North Carolina, in Georgia it is increasingly concentrated in Atlanta and its Northern suburbs. What we need to establish train service on the corridor and think about how to rationally expand it and speed it up in the future.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by kferq

I think you need to learn more about Atlanta. The Crescent doesn't go through Charlotte, so there are no direct trains. Atlanta's Amtrak station blocks a freight line, so Amtrak cannot expand the number of trains until a new station is built. The Crescent sells out in Atlanta going North, so we have no idea of demand.

Why do you say the "Crescent doesn't go through Charlotte" when Amtrak shows the Crescent going through Charlotte?

http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/680/728/...oute-Guide.pdf

And I don't see what difference it makes whether the trains are direct or not. Most trains running up and down the East Coast are not direct. There are 38 trains leaving Union Station in DC for 30th Street Station in Philadelphia every day. Those aren't direct.

[jsvh]

For comparison: looks like LGA and DCA have 72 flights a day, but with some smaller planes. So, comparable numbers of direct passengers between the two, however there are other airports to consider. Point is Atlanta is the hub of the southeast and generating less but a similar scale of traffic. All you need to do is look up the busiest airport in the world to see that there is a high demand for transportation in Atlanta. A lot of those trips are in the 150-400mi sweet spot that HSR serves well. Of course there is more demand for New York which is the largest city in the country so they don't need to be scared. This is not about taking train routes away from them.