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Now Pittsburgh and Mechanicsville lot size, same scale. Especially look at Pittsburgh. All the lots are more shallow, and some of them are much thinner as well.
COMPARISON
Piedmont midtown
Virginia Highland / Morningside
Last edited by netdragon; 06-26-2014 at 12:38 AM..
So, are we done with this charade? Lots are clearly bigger along the Eastside trail. Just because you may like the East side better, doesn't make it more dense.
Granted, Boulevard is dense. So is Castlebury Hill, Northern Mechanicsville, Magnolia Park apartments area, the universities and other areas closer to the Westside trail.
In the end, smaller lots win because it'll mean more houses when they are built back up. No matter how many apartment buildings you build, most of the land is homes. It adds up. Sure, there are no homes on a lot of them now, but my prediction is that problem will be solved someday.
As mentioned before, Westside trail will surround people more dependent on alternative forms of travel, simply due to not being as well-off as the average HOMEOWNER along the Eastside trail.
QED.
Last edited by netdragon; 06-26-2014 at 12:57 AM..
Those are large lots compared to the SW. Maybe I should have put "moderate", but it's definitely not dense.
I know Atlanta like the back of my hand. I'm an investor on the side. How about you? If you just live there, you probably have never looked over things the way I have, looking for opportunities. I know how to analytically look at parts of the city to determine potential and not listen to hype. I am in the world of pro-rata and profit when it comes to Atlanta, not trends and "cool" or cheerleading the next development. I'm not some hipster new-urbanist wanna-be who settles in East Atlanta and throws money to the wind because it's "hip" and doesn't really know anything about how that part of Atlanta got there, then starts dissing the 'burbs because they are "not cool" even though they don't really know the first thing about new-urbanism, which to them is some tall buildings and cafes. I'm a new-urbanist with some years and experience under my belt, and look to make some money on my investments versus throwing money to the wind.
This discussion is about which parts of the trail will be more congested. I already said I'm talking about lot size. I don't really care about vacancy rates, etc, right now. Those will change. So, I'm talking about potential congestion.
For the life of me, I don't see how you could ever expect to compare how congested the Westside trail will be right after it's built to an Eastside trail that's already many years old. You have to give the neighborhoods along the Westside trail to adjust to the trail being there, to gentrify further. Obviously, 10 years will be more than 5, 20 years more than 15, on and on, but a little more time equalizes things and makes the comparison more realistic.
Have you ever been to Pittsburgh or Mechanicsville? No neighborhood on the map has smaller lot size than those two neighborhoods. None. Find me one. Thanks, you can't.
I already said Boulevard is dense. The rest of Virginia Highlands actually has pretty large lots compared to the SW, compared to Pittsburgh, compared to Mechanicsville OR even compared to Vine City or English Ave, which have somewhat larger lots than either Pittsburgh or Mechanicsville. Most of the new lofts and other things flanking the Eastside trail were built AFTER the trail went in (well, actually AS it was being built). The Westside trail will have that too.
You guys have basically been saying that some lofts and townhomes in Boulevard or highrise make up for larger lot sizes when it comes to density. It just doesn't. Mechanicsville and Castlebury Hill have those too. They are a little behind, but they are building fast. Abernathy is a blank slate.
And then there's the whole transportation needs thing that I brought up. People in the West end are very dependent on alternative transportation. Right now, typically walking and MARTA. Along the Westside trail they will be using it to get to work more so than the Eastside trail. Less so for recreation than the Eastside trail. The Eastside trail is 10% used for commuting. The Westside trail will probably be much higher than that.
Did I say that? No, I said you can't count it or we'll need to count things like the Mechanicsville lofts and apartments, and those at Castlebury Hill.
However, I bet if you look at who will use the trail more percentage-wise, it's going to be people right there, not on the other side of Piedmont park, or over near the Arts Center station. Simple traffic models. It's a heck of a trek too, I've walked it many times. Haven't biked it. It may be fine for you, but most people aren't going to do it as much as they want to.
Oh, btw, when I DO walk through Piedmont Park, I don't see too many people walking out the other end to where the banquet facility is. I see them hovering along the running trail and then heading back out.
How many investment properties do you have? From reading your posts online, you've only ever mentioned one property time and time again in one area of town. Regardless, you having an investment property (or multiple) doesn't mean you aren't factually wrong about the density of areas of Atlanta. All the information is available online through census data.
So, are we done with this charade? Lots are clearly bigger along the Eastside trail. Just because you may like the East side better, doesn't make it more dense.
Granted, Boulevard is dense. So is Castlebury Hill, Northern Mechanicsville, Magnolia Park apartments area, the universities and other areas closer to the Westside trail.
In the end, smaller lots win because it'll mean more houses when they are built back up. No matter how many apartment buildings you build, most of the land is homes. It adds up. Sure, there are no homes on a lot of them now, but my prediction is that problem will be solved someday.
As mentioned before, Westside trail will surround people more dependent on alternative forms of travel, simply due to not being as well-off as the average HOMEOWNER along the Eastside trail.
QED.
This is factually incorrect. It does matter how many apartment buildings you build. It matters how dense the development is, that's what leads to density (not how small the SFH lots are). Half of the "lots" you've shown in these neighborhoods are abandoned. Many of the homes are tear downs. Whose to say lots won't be combined? Regardless, one apartment building can make up for 200-300 lot discrepancy, so of course multifamily matters. I'm really not sure how you could view it any other way. A lot of small SFH lots aren't going to make up for a lack mid and high-rises.
Many "sparse" or "very sparse" areas are denser than the areas you have listed as "dense". Take NPU-F (Virginia Highland/Morningside) vs NPU-L (English Ave/ Vine City) for example. F is an area which you listed as sparse or very sparse but actually has a higher population density than L which you believe to be dense.
I think he is referring to potential. Because the lots are smaller in Vine City, etc. than along the Eastside trail, there is more potential for higher density. On the other hand, it makes it harder for developers to gather multiple properties and create a one large piece of apartment developments. The parcels along the eastside trail, where the apartments are being built was mostly industrial and large.
This discussion is about which parts of the trail will be more congested. I already said I'm talking about lot size. I don't really care about vacancy rates, etc, right now. Those will change. So, I'm talking about potential congestion.
Do you think the homes along the SW portion of the beltline will ever be occupied to the level of any other portion? I understand your point about the potential density based on the size of the lots and potential number of homes/residents. But do you think a sizable number of people will ever be running to move into inner SW Atlanta in the foreseeable future? If so, around when do you predict it will reach critical mass? Just curious.
Do you think the homes along the SW portion of the beltline will ever be occupied to the level of any other portion? I understand your point about the potential density based on the size of the lots and potential number of homes/residents. But do you think a sizable number of people will ever be running to move into inner SW Atlanta in the foreseeable future? If so, around when do you predict it will reach critical mass? Just curious.
Yes, gentrification was halted by the market crash. It has started up again. It is not gentrifying at the speed that NW Atlanta is gentrifying, and probably never will due to the future Westside Park, etc, but the SW is definitely gentrifying again. The SW around downtown has some momentum and market pressure helping it, along with being close to downtown. It also has some challenges.
It's really hard to gauge timelines, especially when it's partially driven by the whims of investors that have a lot more capital than I do, and on when the city finishes the trails and light rail. I think the answer on timing is "yes". Or another answer is "sooner" since there is renewed interest. For instance, I've had more unsolicited offers in the last half-year than I have in the last five years.
20 years? Sure. 10 years? Probably. 5-10? Partially. 1 year? Probably not much more than continued seeding.
The Westside trail is definitely going to help bring investment. There's also renewed attention on brownstones, especially in Castlebury Hill. Just like O4W, the light rail line is accelerating Castlebury Hill.
There's new development along I-20 and Abernathy is probably next.
Depending on what happens at the old Braves stadium, it could have a positive effect on Mechanicsville and Pittsburgh. I know the city isn't keen on GA State's proposal for tax reasons, but bringing students down there could be great for clearing out vacancies in the neighborhoods. Even if the mixed-use project goes forward, I'd like to see some GA State facilities mixed in.
Considering that the Westside trail is going to end at University Ave in Adair Park, it'll be interesting to see what happens in Adair Park and Pittsburgh. If things continue to improve in Pittsburgh, Capital View Manor and Adair Park, or the redevelopment of the Braves stadium land draws investors, it may cause the brownstone owned by Annie E Casey Foundation along University Ave to finally be developed into mixed-use and a park. That would have a huge impact on that area around it, even as far as Oakland City.
However, with its MARTA station, the portion of Oakland City along Lee Rd near the Westside trail probably won't need much help. That area is ripe for redevelopment because the land is so under-utilized. There's a MARTA station there already. Developers are going to see MARTA and trails as something that will support high density development.
The Atlanta police have, last decade, cleared out some of the national gang problems in the bluff area and near the corner of Washington Park, Vine City and English Avenue, which makes it more attractive to students and former students. It'll be interesting to see what can be done with the gulch, since connecting downtown and areas on the other side of the gulch would have a positive effect. The new dome isn't really going to do that, per-se. A multi-modal stadium would do much more.
The biggest challenge I think the SW faces right now is property vandalism / thefts, which was accelerated when the downturn caused loss of jobs for blue-collar workers living around there. Some gave up and turned to crime. If every time homes are upgraded, others are destroyed, then it creates an endless cycle that something has to stop. Usually either a lot of money or some increased police presence.
I think the second biggest challenge is whether the focus of large investors will be the NW of Atlanta or will there be a split between SW and NW. Though the NW has the advantage of being sandwiched between midtown, Buckhead, Vinings and Smyrna, I don't think the NW will get all the attention, just more of it. The reason is demand. There is growth in the inner Southern metro and near the airport. There is also pressure from downtown. The West End is also culturally unique. There's already MARTA, which the NW doesn't have North of Bankhead. All that together means there will be some attention on the SW.
We'll see what big ticket developments come in. If they can get those things going, then small private investors like myself can probably do the rest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLJR
doesn't mean you aren't factually wrong about the density of areas of Atlanta. All the information is available online through census data.
I think we're done here. Once the homes are occupied on the SW, and lots rebuilt, the smaller lot size will equate to higher density unless midtown can build a LOT more highrise apartments or condos. I think midtown will continue to see new mid-rise condo/apartment development but is moderated by the market and it isn't completely under midtown's control. That's because bloat between any of midtown, Cumberland or Lenox slows development in all three. High midtown prices are also putting pressure on areas outside of midtown. So you have to ask yourself, between infill development in midtown, and 4-5 story lofts in the West end and Castlebury Hill, will midtown really be able to grow fast enough to make up for neighborhoods along the Westside trail becoming occupied again?
Last edited by netdragon; 06-26-2014 at 05:22 PM..
Literally 90% of this thread exists because of a simple misunderstanding of potential density and current density.
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