Will This Be the Decade of Big City Growth? (Atlanta: 2013, apartments)

[cqholt]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

Big cities will continue to grow particularly with higher-income young professionals while suburban areas will continue to grow particularly with lower-income minorities and immigrants.

Suburban areas will continue to grow with higher-income professionals, but not necessarily at the same high rates that they did from the end of World War II through the very-beginning of the Millennium.

The suburban areas that experience the most robust growth in income levels in the 21st Century will be those that have the best access to high-capacity transit service.

Suburban areas that do not have good access to high-capacity transit service will still continue to grow, but primarily with more modest wage earners.

All the more important for the red line to be extended and Clayton county vote yes in November. With Clayton approving MARTA, it might convince gwinnett to hold a vote. Cobb is a lost cause.

[SDWILLY]

Originally Posted by bu2

Its a very typical pattern. With a real estate bust, the far suburbs, townhomes and condos sit empty, while inner city housing does better. Check back in 5 years to see if the old pattern returned.

that may play into things, but the trend of urbanization preceded the bust. i see a lot more families willing to live in cities and reversal of white flight in chicago, for example, from the 90s on.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by cqholt

All the more important for the red line to be extended and Clayton county vote yes in November. With Clayton approving MARTA, it might convince gwinnett to hold a vote. Cobb is a lost cause.

Cobb is nowhere near the lost cause that many ITPers understandably think it is.

As has been discussed endlessly on the Atlanta Forum, one of the main motivations for Cobb County's acquisition of the Atlanta Braves is to make traffic so horrendously bad that residents in Cobb County and throughout much of the I-75/I-575 anchored Northwest Corridor will be begging for high-capacity transit service after sitting in total gridlock on multiple Braves' weekday game nights.

The new Braves' stadium is very much a "backdoor way" to get high-capacity transit into Cobb County (MARTA or otherwise) by the ultra-ambitious Cobb County business and real estate community.

That's because those business interests know that having direct access to high-capacity transit (particularly high-capacity passenger rail transit) is worth tens-of-billions of dollars in profits in the 21st Century real estate market.

The much more transit-oriented 21st Century real estate market values direct access to rail transit infinitely much more than the post WWII 20th Century real estate market which was focused on direct access to major commuter highways.

[cqholt]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

Cobb is nowhere near the lost cause that many ITPers understandably think it is.

As has been discussed endlessly on the Atlanta Forum, one of the main motivations for Cobb County's acquisition of the Atlanta Braves is to make traffic so horrendously bad that residents in Cobb County and throughout much of the I-75/I-575 anchored Northwest Corridor will be begging for high-capacity transit service after sitting in total gridlock on multiple Braves' weekday game nights.

The new Braves' stadium is very much a "backdoor way" to get high-capacity transit into Cobb County (MARTA or otherwise) by the ultra-ambitious Cobb County business and real estate community.

That's because those business interests know that having direct access to high-capacity transit (particularly high-capacity passenger rail transit) is worth tens-of-billions of dollars in profits in the 21st Century real estate market.

The much more transit-oriented 21st Century real estate market values direct access to rail transit infinitely much more than the post WWII 20th Century real estate market which was focused on direct access to major commuter highways.

You have said it on here many times, but the older generation that's in charge of the county has displayed that they do not want reliable transit. Cct doesn't even run on Sunday, except for the 10.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by cqholt

You have said it on here many times, but the older generation that's in charge of the county has displayed that they do not want reliable transit. Cct doesn't even run on Sunday, except for the 10.

But that older generation, while they still make up a dominant part of the Cobb County electorate for the time being, does not make up the same dominant part of the Cobb County population that they did 25 years ago. This is evidenced by Cobb County's rapidly-changing demographics which show that non-Hispanic whites currently make up just over 55% of the county's population, a number that is down from 1990 when non-Hispanic whites made up over 86% of the county's population.

Besides, the use of massive traffic jams that will likely result after the new Braves' stadium opens to make the case for the expansion of high-capacity transit into Cobb County is not meant to get Cobb County residents to pay for transit expansion (by getting Cobb County residents to pay a 1% sales tax to join MARTA).

The use of massive traffic jams that will likely result after the new Braves' stadium is meant to get the State of Georgia to pay for transit expansion into Cobb from Atlanta and across the Top End of the I-285 Perimeter to Gwinnett County.

Business leaders and real estate interests in traditionally transit-averse outlying suburbs like Cobb, North Fulton and Gwinnett counties recognize the increasingly critical importance of having direct access to high-capacity transit service in a 21st Century economy, even if much of their aging electorates do not.

[cqholt]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

But that older generation, while they still make up a dominant part of the Cobb County electorate for the time being, does not make up the same dominant part of the Cobb County population that they did 25 years ago. This is evidenced by Cobb County's rapidly-changing demographics which show that non-Hispanic whites currently make up just over 55% of the county's population, a number that is down from 1990 when non-Hispanic whites made up over 86% of the county's population.

Besides, the use of massive traffic jams that will likely result after the new Braves' stadium opens to make the case for the expansion of high-capacity transit into Cobb County is not meant to get Cobb County residents to pay for transit expansion (by getting Cobb County residents to pay a 1% sales tax to join MARTA).

The use of massive traffic jams that will likely result after the new Braves' stadium is meant to get the State of Georgia to pay for transit expansion into Cobb from Atlanta and across the Top End of the I-285 Perimeter to Gwinnett County.

Business leaders and real estate interests in traditionally transit-averse outlying suburbs like Cobb, North Fulton and Gwinnett counties recognize the increasingly critical importance of having direct access to high-capacity transit service in a 21st Century economy, even if much of their aging electorates do not.

A Top end route does not provide direct access to hjia. Going straight to arts center or Midtown is more direct and less time.

[netdragon]

This is actually incorrect, and quite the opposite of what is happening. Our largest cities: New York, Los Angeles, etc, are actually losing natural population. The only reason they aren't shrinking is due to immigration.

Based on government reports I read from the late 90s that had already predicted the urbanization trend, this century is supposed to favor small cities during the urbanization trend. Big cities are getting too expensive whereas small cities can offer the urban feel for less. By "small", talking on a global perspective, we are still talking about pretty large cities. Your Hartfords and Nashvilles. Atlanta, if only considering the urban area, may even be small enough to benefit.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by cqholt

A Top end route does not provide direct access to hjia. Going straight to arts center or Midtown is more direct and less time.

Cobb business and real estate interests don't just want one high-capacity transit line across the Top End of the I-285 Perimeter like I stated when I said:

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

The use of massive traffic jams that will likely result after the new Braves' stadium is meant to get the State of Georgia to pay for transit expansion into Cobb from Atlanta and across the Top End of the I-285 Perimeter to Gwinnett County.

...As in at least two high-capacity routes (and maybe as many as four high-capacity routes total)...which is what Cobb County business and real estate leaders want as a means of boosting commercial real estate values in the traditionally highly transit-averse county.

Of course Cobb County business and real estate interests want direct access to the world-leading Atlanta Airport by way of the very-lucrative convention and tourism business in Downtown Atlanta.

Along with a future high-capacity transit link across the Top End of I-285, it's the direct high-capacity transit access to and from HJIA that Cobb business and real estate interests are counting on to boost the value of real estate in larger commercial districts like Cumberland and Town Center.

Cobb business and real estate interests are also counting on high-capacity transit service to boost real estate values in smaller business districts like the historic downtowns of Smyrna, Marietta, Kennesaw and Acworth.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by netdragon

This is actually incorrect, and quite the opposite of what is happening. Our largest cities: New York, Los Angeles, etc, are actually losing natural population. The only reason they aren't shrinking is due to immigration.

Based on government reports I read from the late 90s that had already predicted the urbanization trend, this century is supposed to favor small cities during the urbanization trend. Big cities are getting too expensive whereas small cities can offer the urban feel for less. By "small", talking on a global perspective, we are still talking about pretty large cities. Your Hartfords and Nashvilles. Atlanta, if only considering the urban area, may even be small enough to benefit.

The real trend is the migration of jobs to the suburbs. Where the jobs are is what will drive growth. Downtowns have been shrinking as a % of the job market for decades. Companies are often moving out to where their employees are. San Jose is growing faster than San Francisco. In Houston, ExxonMobil moved its offices out to a massive campus style campus 20 miles north of downtown. They were previously scattered all over the city, but the biggest concentrations were downtown and the Greenspoint area 5 miles closer to town than their new campus. Now 10,000 employees will be at the new location. The WSJ describes it as a Silicon Valley inspired campus.

This article has an aerial view:
Exxon Mobil campus overview: It's big - Houston Chronicle

Here, even the paper, the AJC, moved to Perimeter Mall.

[bu2]

Every little town in the area seems to want to create its own business district. That trend will tend to make mass transit even more difficult in Atlanta.