Report: The Exurbs Are Building Again, With A Vengeance! (Atlanta: for sale, condos)

[netdragon]

In exurbs, I actually see a mix of single-family development and multi-family "big ticket projects" in their town centers, supporting what testa50 said. The big ticket projects will yield more units on average, even if on much less land.

The inner suburbs started rebounding a couple years back, so the exurbs are probably just catching up. Interestingly, there's quite a bit of single-family development in Smyrna and Marietta right now, and they are inner suburbs. For now, they have completely turned their back on apartments because they had to pay to teardown old ones. They want condos for multi-family, but banks are not yet funding condos except intown (and even that's tough nowadays according to Branch Properties). However, what we're seeing more than ever is a very dense urban row-house type single-family development, replacing larger lots with smaller houses. Often with garages in the back for direct sidewalk entrance to the front.

Condos are getting more expensive and thing are looking up, but there's always a risk that could lead to apartment -> condo conversions in the inner metro.

On the other hand, I would guess that condos in exurban areas get funding easier because there isn't as much of a bloat of condos in that area. I would also imagine apartments are increasingly popular because it's an option for people without much money, including those pushed out of the inner metro.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by netdragon

Now, on the whole, this is no surprise. The exurbs lagged behind the city and inner suburbs on the rebound. And obviously the lag is over.

Townhomes, condos and outer suburbs always feel real estate downturns the worst and are the last to rebound. Very predictable.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by netdragon

In exurbs, I actually see a mix of single-family development and multi-family "big ticket projects" in their town centers, supporting what testa50 said. The big ticket projects will yield more units on average, even if on much less land.

The inner suburbs started rebounding a couple years back, so the exurbs are probably just catching up. Interestingly, there's quite a bit of single-family development in Smyrna and Marietta right now, and they are inner suburbs. For now, they have completely turned their back on apartments because they had to pay to teardown old ones. They want condos for multi-family, but banks are not yet funding condos except intown (and even that's tough nowadays according to Branch Properties). However, what we're seeing more than ever is a very dense urban row-house type single-family development, replacing larger lots with smaller houses. Often with garages in the back for direct sidewalk entrance to the front.

Condos are getting more expensive and thing are looking up, but there's always a risk that could lead to apartment -> condo conversions in the inner metro.

On the other hand, I would guess that condos in exurban areas get funding easier because there isn't as much of a bloat of condos in that area. I would also imagine apartments are increasingly popular because it's an option for people without much money, including those pushed out of the inner metro.

In 2009 there was a 99 year supply of high rise condos in Atlanta. Bankers are naturally going to be pretty leery.

Developers will build whatever they can fund.

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by testa50

The landscape appears to be shifting in favor of more multifamily; not less.

And this is of course vastly more urban-focused than anything in the previous boom (2002-2007). Take the full-year 2006 data, for instance:

53944 Single family units (80%)
13591 Multi family units (20%)

Multi family housing construction has almost reached the rate of the previous construction boom, with nearly 10,000 units delivered last year. But with 14,000 single family units delivered in 2013, single family remains hugely depressed. And the latest 2014 data don't show a big change; both sectors improved moderately, with the MFH component representing a larger percentage increase.

In sum, the suggestion that the exurbs are booming with new construction is highly dubious. It is a trickle compared to what it used to be, even now.

Building Permits Survey > Permits by Metropolitan Area

Yeah, those numbers are really telling.

Originally Posted by netdragon

In exurbs, I actually see a mix of single-family development and multi-family "big ticket projects" in their town centers, supporting what testa50 said. The big ticket projects will yield more units on average, even if on much less land.

What exurb are getting big apartment projects? I know the suburbs are, just not the exurbs.

[testa50]

Originally Posted by netdragon

In exurbs, I actually see a mix of single-family development and multi-family "big ticket projects" in their town centers, supporting what testa50 said. The big ticket projects will yield more units on average, even if on much less land.

The inner suburbs started rebounding a couple years back, so the exurbs are probably just catching up. Interestingly, there's quite a bit of single-family development in Smyrna and Marietta right now, and they are inner suburbs. For now, they have completely turned their back on apartments because they had to pay to teardown old ones. They want condos for multi-family, but banks are not yet funding condos except intown (and even that's tough nowadays according to Branch Properties). However, what we're seeing more than ever is a very dense urban row-house type single-family development, replacing larger lots with smaller houses. Often with garages in the back for direct sidewalk entrance to the front.

Condos are getting more expensive and thing are looking up, but there's always a risk that could lead to apartment -> condo conversions in the inner metro.

On the other hand, I would guess that condos in exurban areas get funding easier because there isn't as much of a bloat of condos in that area. I would also imagine apartments are increasingly popular because it's an option for people without much money, including those pushed out of the inner metro.

I don't see much multifamily going on in the exurbs at all, although the data are a bit more cumbersome to access.

Zero MF permits have been issued in Cherokee since Jan 2013.
215 MF permits have been issued in Forsyth since Jan 2013.
About 700 MF permits have been issued in Gwinnett since Jan 2013 (which includes inner and outer suburbs)

etc

Meanwhile, Fulton has had 2,300 issued in 2014 (Jan - Apr) alone, and 6,100 in all of 2013. So about 2/3 of all MF permits issued are in Fulton. About 20% of the SFH permits are pulled in Fulton, by contrast.

[lastminutemom]

testa --

are townhome communities considered MF or does it vary by jurisdiction?

[netdragon]

Originally Posted by jsvh

Yeah, those numbers are really telling.




What exurb are getting big apartment projects? I know the suburbs are, just not the exurbs.

Woodstock, Emerson and Canton, for instance. I don't personally consider anything north of Kennesaw and Acworth a suburb.


One of my co-workers just dropped the bombshell that he is considering moving from Marietta to Woodstock (between Woodstock and Canton) instead of Marietta to Powder Springs, because he says he can get the same house in Woodstock for a lot less than Powder Springs. $180k as opposed to $240k in Powder Springs.

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by netdragon

Woodstock, Emerson and Canton, for instance.

They are getting big multifamily (apartment / condo) projects? Any examples?

[netdragon]

Originally Posted by bu2

In 2009 there was a 99 year supply of high rise condos in Atlanta. Bankers are naturally going to be pretty leery.

Ouch. That's been affecting Cobb as well.

Is it getting better?

[netdragon]

Originally Posted by jsvh

They are getting big multifamily (apartment / condo) projects? Any examples?

Example (Emerson):



Woodstock's has been mixed-use downtown.