Blue Atlanta Attracting Investment Away From Red Georgia (suburbs, title)

[atltechdude]

I guess some people are different, but I know people in the suburbs who hate the city.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

The numbers are wrong...

There are also lots of incorrect data on this topic on blogs and on wikipedia leading to many inaccuracies and false dates for newer/older data.

The latest year the BEA from the US Department of Commerce has numbers for both metro areas and states is 2012

For the state: (In thousands)
2009: $404,045
2012: $438,324

Metro Atlanta:
2009: $264,762
2012: $294,589

GA Agriculture/hunting/forestry:
2009: $3,456
2012: $5,674

This means in 2012 Metro Atlanta represented 67% of the state's GSP (State GDP). It represents 55% of the state's population.

Agriculture represents 1.3% of the states GDP. (It should be noted the number spiked between 2011 and 2012. I'm not sure why. It is typically lower.

cw, let me suggest you double check those numbers.

Georgia's agricultural industry is obviously far larger than $3.5-5.6 million and a whole lot more than 1.3% of the state's GDP. I personally know of some individual ag businesses that do several times that volume all by themselves.

From the state of Georgia's current website:

"Agribusiness is Georgia’s leading industry. Agribusiness contributes $71.1 billion to Georgia’s economy."


Agribusiness | Georgia Department of Economic Development

Georgia Farm Bureau - About Georgia Agriculture

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by arjay57

cw, let me suggest you double check those numbers.

Georgia's agricultural industry is obviously far larger than $3.5-5.6 million and a whole lot more than 1.3 of the state's GDP. I personally know of some individual ag businesses that do several times that volume all by themselves.

From the state of Georgia's current website:

"Agribusiness is Georgia’s leading industry. Agribusiness contributes $71.1 billion to Georgia’s economy."


Agribusiness | Georgia Department of Economic Development

Georgia Farm Bureau - About Georgia Agriculture

Arjay,

My numbers come straight from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the U.S. Department of Commerce.

They are -the- economic analysts that actually study the GDP numbers and sectors of the economy for the government.

There isn't much to check 'nor is it likely to be factually wrong.


The problem you're running into... you're posting PR things from industry groups and you're citing sources that include more vague terminology that include multiplier effects (not raw economic output). None of them are actually claiming what agriculture's raw GDP contributions are.


Case in point... You can say agribusiness contributes $71b to the economy

but to get that number you'd have to count large parts of manufacturing beyond farms, which would include Dalton Carpets, Gainesville chicken processing, the transportation trucking hauling items, and retail purchases made from farming employees. It could also include money put into the finance industry from farm based businesses.

Actual farms... the producers of the raw materials... $5b...

The problem is... that $71b can't be compared to the state GDP...because most of that $71b are from other industries... often times in cities and are most definitely not farms. Even then... $71b is extremely rose-colored. That would be be 50% of all of the non-Metro Atlanta parts of Georgia's economy, but that isn't realistic once you factor in all of Georgia's smaller cities and rural retail sales, rural governments, and rural social and health services.

Other sectors of the economy inter-relate and can try to claim the same thing with their affects on other sectors of the economy. It is a two-way street. But when things are individually diviced... farming is farming, finance is finance, manufacturing is manufacturing.


Lastly.... Please let me issue one correction. It isn't $3-$5 million... it is BILLION.

I should have said "(in millions)" not "(in thousands)"

But the percentage of the state GDP is spot on from the most definitive research source on the subject matter.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

The problem you're running into... you're posting PR things from industry groups and you're citing sources that include more vague terminology that include multiplier effects (not raw economic output). None of them are actually claiming what agriculture's raw GDP contributions are.


Case in point... You can say agribusiness contributes $71b to the economy

Actually, it's the State of Georgia saying that, not me. The numbers I cited were from the Georgia Department of Economic Development.

And of course the agricultural industry is far more than just farms.

According the Georgia Forestry Commission (another state agency), forest-related industries inject $23.6 billion and 108,112 jobs into the state’s economy. The forest industry provides an average of $448 million
in state tax revenues each year. Remember, the forest industry includes giants like Georgia-Pacific and Weyerhauser.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by arjay57

Actually, it's the State of Georgia saying that, not me. The numbers I cited were from the Georgia Department of Economic Development.

And of course the agricultural industry is far more than just farms.

According the Georgia Forestry Commission (another state agency), forest-related industries inject $23.6 billion and 108,112 jobs into the state’s economy. The forest industry provides an average of $448 million
in state tax revenues each year. Remember, the forest industry includes giants like Georgia-Pacific and Weyerhauser.

"inject" "impact" "multipliers" "support"

economic multipliers...

taking claim for large amounts of spending that is actually in other sectors finance, retail and manufacturing.....

context is key. sectors of the economy inter-relate, but with official GDP you can only claim what it directly contributes.... not spending it can cause in other sectors.

It is also factoids from a PR website on behave of economic development in Georgia. It isn't an economic analysis.

BEA is the definitive authority on this.

If you want to get into Forestry... that number is included in the figure I already posted.

Forestry alone accounts for $971 million directly to the state GDP.

And for the record you also cited the Georgia Farm Bureau, which is an independent industry lobby group.

And again....

You're ignoring one of the key points I was making. There is a difference between farming, forestry (growing and harvesting a product) and manufacturing after it.

ie... if you make paper... that is NOT forestry! That is manufacturing! Growing the materials for paper is forestry.

Take Georgia Pacific for example... The business downtown... is not forestry... it is business services, finance services, real estate services, and more... Obviously the different sectors of the economy inter-related, but you can't include the GDP estimates from one sector to the other sector.

Georgia Economic Development... will call everything Georgia Pacific Agribusiness, just as Atlanta will cheerlead their high paying business services jobs downtown. The two overlap, when judging sectors of the economy in the GDP tally... they can't overlap and be counted by multiple groups... they are categorized into groups... you're a farm... or you're business services.

[cwkimbro]

Actually if you still don't want to believe that....

Go to page 4.

This is the report straight from the Georgia Forestry Commission about the numbers you cite

http://www.gfc.state.ga.us/utilizati...0Low%20Res.pdf

That number they mentioned is based on multipliers and you can see how they have it broken down by economic sector. Note the first sector "forestry"
and note "manufacturing" and their values.

and note... they're multipliers.

[Galounger]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

Arjay,

My numbers come straight from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the U.S. Department of Commerce.

They are -the- economic analysts that actually study the GDP numbers and sectors of the economy for the government.

There isn't much to check 'nor is it likely to be factually wrong.


The problem you're running into... you're posting PR things from industry groups and you're citing sources that include more vague terminology that include multiplier effects (not raw economic output). None of them are actually claiming what agriculture's raw GDP contributions are.


Case in point... You can say agribusiness contributes $71b to the economy

but to get that number you'd have to count large parts of manufacturing beyond farms, which would include Dalton Carpets, Gainesville chicken processing, the transportation trucking hauling items, and retail purchases made from farming employees. It could also include money put into the finance industry from farm based businesses.

Actual farms... the producers of the raw materials... $5b...

The problem is... that $71b can't be compared to the state GDP...because most of that $71b are from other industries... often times in cities and are most definitely not farms. Even then... $71b is extremely rose-colored. That would be be 50% of all of the non-Metro Atlanta parts of Georgia's economy, but that isn't realistic once you factor in all of Georgia's smaller cities and rural retail sales, rural governments, and rural social and health services.

Other sectors of the economy inter-relate and can try to claim the same thing with their affects on other sectors of the economy. It is a two-way street. But when things are individually diviced... farming is farming, finance is finance, manufacturing is manufacturing.


Lastly.... Please let me issue one correction. It isn't $3-$5 million... it is BILLION.

I should have said "(in millions)" not "(in thousands)"

But the percentage of the state GDP is spot on from the most definitive research source on the subject matter.

Exactly what I was thinking. Agriculture is definitely a big economic force in Georgia but if one were trying to over emphasis it's importance they could easily count for instance things like the Frito Lay plant in Central Georgia as Agriculture even though it's not directly tied completely to Georgia Agriculture and this could also be considered Manufacturing. Same thing goes for the Proctor and Gamble plant in Albany and paper plant in Savannah both of these use timber from Georgia Forest and Forestry Industry can be lumped in with Agriculture.

However, Agriculture and manufacturing and other sectors are all important to the economy. As was stated earlier California and Ohio have even larger agricultural output than Georgia but they also recognize the importance of Urban industries such as manufacturing and finance where they also surpass Georgia.

[arjay57]

Okay, you guys have persuaded me.

Somebody needs to call the Georgia Department of Economic Development and the Georgia Forestry Commision and tell them agriculture is barely 1% of the economy in Georgia. That 4.5 million acres of cropland literally doesn't amount to a hill of beans compared to the A Town.

How many people are we paying to come up with this baloney?

[Mutiny77]

Originally Posted by arjay57

Okay, you guys have persuaded me.

Somebody needs to call the Georgia Department of Economic Development and the Georgia Forestry Commision and tell them agriculture is barely 1% of the economy in Georgia. That 4.5 million acres of cropland literally doesn't amount to a hill of beans compared to the A Town.

How many people are we paying to come up with this baloney?

Of course agriculture is important, but this doesn't make rural Georgia an economic engine.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by Mutiny77

Of course agriculture is important, but this doesn't make rural Georgia an economic engine.

Rural Georgia is uneven in terms of economic output. Some areas do all right but many are struggling.

However, a lot of our strongest economic zones are red and in metro Atlanta. So I don't think we can conclude that business is fleeing red areas for blue ones.