Exponential Growth Taking Off In The City (Atlanta, Buckhead: 2014, apartments)

[jsvh]

Buckhead or Midtown alone currently has more new residential units in the works than the entire city (proper) saw in growth in the last 12 months. [6K-10K units vs 4,100 in growth]

That 12 months (April 2013 to April 2014) of population growth is more than the three years since 2010 combined. [4,100 vs 2,797]

Those four years combined have more growth than any decade since the 1960s. [6,897 vs ~3,500 or even negative growth]

Crazy.

[ATLJR]

It's exciting to see. The progress is definitely encouraging, but lets hope the city can step up and lead. There are issues that need to be addressed - crime, infrastructure, education, etc. If those aren't address it could halt a lot of the progress made.

I can say the area around PCM, where I live, has made huge strides - even in the last few months. The foot traffic is pleasant to see.

[Ant131531]

If these projects in Midtown that have been proposed get off the ground at roughly the same time, we could be seeing 3k-4k units in the next 3 years in midtown alone...The midtown core is only roughly .72 squares miles which means 486 units being build every .1 square miles...crazy...and that's just midtown. By 2020, midtown Atlanta will be a top 3 densest neighborhood in the South. Only Miami will be able to say it has a denser neighborhood.

Buckhead at this moment is going through a boom though it's more versatile with Buckhead Atlanta high end retail and apartments.

I would mention Perimeter, but it's not in the city of Atlanta.

Then you add the surrounding neighborhoods and we could seriously be looking at average densities of near or at 10k ppsm within the inner 36 square mile core by 2020. Basically, imagine 3 miles from Five Points in downtown each way.

You wouldn't think Atlanta and Georgia has some of the highest unemployment rates.

[skbl17]

This map of completed, under construction, and proposed Atlanta developments tells the story quite well.

This boom for Midtown is crazy. You have new retail, a lot of new mixed-use and residential development, midrises, highrises, 98 14th St. (which I hope gets approved soon,) new student housing...the Midtown of 2020 will look a lot different than the Midtown of 2010.

I see that Downtown is on the cusp of an investment drive similar to that of Midtown.

Buckhead is growing at an alarming rate; every time I drive by Buckhead, I see new developments popping up all over the place, never mind the proposals. Also, there's the areas along the Beltline, especially on the east side, that are seeing tremendous growth.

In 2010, the Census Bureau pegged the population of the City of Atlanta at 420,003 (a controversial number that may have been the result of undercounting according to Kasim Reed). There haven't been any annexations since 2010, so the land size of the city is pegged at 131.8 square miles. Thus, the average population density of Atlanta was 3,186.7 ppsm. For comparison, the 2009 Census estimate, which pegged the city at ~540,000, would show an average pop. density of 4,097 ppsm.

To get to an average population density of 5,000 ppsm (which is what I'd consider healthy) with no annexations, Atlanta would need a population of 659,000, which won't happen before 2020. To get to Miami's average density (~12,000 ppsm), we'd need a population of 1.58 million, which isn't going to happen unless this city sees an unprecedented boom.

Of course, the average population density fails to tell the whole story. For example, while the city may have a population density of ~3,200 ppsm, the wooded McMansion neighborhoods in west Buckhead skew the numbers downward. The urban core alone is probably between 10,000 ppsm and (in spots) 20,000 ppsm. The surrounding neighborhoods are still healthy density-wise, with numbers between 7,000 and 11,000 ppsm.

- skbl17

[cqholt]

Let's not forget Miami has natural barriers on its east and southeast sides (Atlantic Ocean), as well as west (The Everglades). Atlanta has no natural barriers.
The growth of intown Atlanta is amazing. I am glad to be part of Atlanta's renaissances.

[Ha-Mez]

This sounds wrong, but I'm looking forward to the gentrification of Downtown, especially South Downtown. There are tons of surface parking lots in that area. If all that parking was consolidated into a single parking deck, the other areas could become great mixed-use/residential buildings.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by skbl17

To get to an average population density of 5,000 ppsm (which is what I'd consider healthy) with no annexations, Atlanta would need a population of 659,000, which won't happen before 2020.

If the city proper grew to 659,000 by 2020, that would be some ferocious growth indeed. That would be 40,000 new people a year, compared to the 1,724 a year we've been averaging since 2010.

[ATLJR]

Originally Posted by arjay57

If the city proper grew to 659,000 by 2020, that would be some ferocious growth indeed. That would be 40,000 new people a year, compared to the 1,724 a year we've been averaging since 2010.

One of the reasons the census was off from previous population estimates, many theorize, is the exodus of people from other areas of town, along with the removal of government housing, even as certain areas of the city were experience a renaissance of sorts with large population gains. I'm assuming there have been people who have continued to move out of certain parts of town, for a variety of reasons, which keeps the overall population gain figures low. So, 10,000 new people a year move into the city, but another area of town losses 8,000. My question is, to you and anyone else, do you think the mass emigration from certain areas of town - generally the poorer - have stopped? If so, I think we could see higher yearly gains on population. Not the 40,000 people a year mentioned above, but 10,000 - 20,000 isn't unreasonable considering demographic trends and Atlanta's job trends.

[samiwas1]

Originally Posted by skbl17

...the wooded McMansion neighborhoods in west Buckhead skew the numbers downward.

I'm not sure I'd classify anything in west Buckhead as "McMansion neighborhoods". Isn't a McMansion neighborhood typically tightly-packed, large, similar-looking houses packed into a development?

[fzx]

Originally Posted by arjay57

If the city proper grew to 659,000 by 2020, that would be some ferocious growth indeed. That would be 40,000 new people a year, compared to the 1,724 a year we've been averaging since 2010.

Although I agree with you that 40K/yr is way too rosy, I would say 2010-now is a low period due to low mobility of people in general. Housing and low employment opportunities are the things to blame.

IMO, we are shooting too high for the new apt buildings in this cycle. However, remember the office building overbuilt in Buckhead during 2006-08? Given right prices, people will be attracted to the the center of the city at the expense of peripheral areas. And a secular trend for people to move away from rural areas to cities is non-stoppable. Atlanta will see its fare share.