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Old 06-04-2015, 06:42 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,811 posts, read 9,215,254 times
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Atlanta MSA should surpass Philadelphia MSA by the 2020 census.

2010:
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area: 5,965,343
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area: 5,286,728

Difference in 2010: Philadelphia was larger by 678,615 people.

2014:
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area: 6,051,170
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area: 5,614,323

Difference in 2014: Philadelphia is larger by 436,847 people.

Atlanta has cut into the gap between it and Philadelphia diligently in the 4 years (or 51 months (4 years is 48 months but three extra months are included between April - July)) since the United States Census of 2010.

Here is my math on 2020 if they continue on the trends they have in the recent years.

2020:
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area: 6,131,763
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area: 6,129,089

It will be close on the 2020 census but Atlanta is speeding up while Philadelphia has never registered even 1% growth a single year since 1950 (closest it came was 0.9% in 1987).

Congratulations guys, you're poised to be the 8th largest MSA by 2020, give or take a few thousand people.
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Old 06-04-2015, 07:08 PM
bu2
 
17,611 posts, read 8,785,278 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red John View Post
Atlanta MSA should surpass Philadelphia MSA by the 2020 census.

2010:
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area: 5,965,343
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area: 5,286,728

Difference in 2010: Philadelphia was larger by 678,615 people.

2014:
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area: 6,051,170
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area: 5,614,323

Difference in 2014: Philadelphia is larger by 436,847 people.

Atlanta has cut into the gap between it and Philadelphia diligently in the 4 years (or 51 months (4 years is 48 months but three extra months are included between April - July)) since the United States Census of 2010.

Here is my math on 2020 if they continue on the trends they have in the recent years.

2020:
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area: 6,131,763
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area: 6,129,089

It will be close on the 2020 census but Atlanta is speeding up while Philadelphia has never registered even 1% growth a single year since 1950 (closest it came was 0.9% in 1987).

Congratulations guys, you're poised to be the 8th largest MSA by 2020, give or take a few thousand people.
Philly could fall from 5th to 9th in one decade. Houston passed them shortly after the census. At the current pace, DC will pass them shortly, if they haven't already, as well as Miami.
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Old 06-04-2015, 07:44 PM
 
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Quote:
DC will pass them shortly
DC already has. DC is really the 4th largest area in the country.
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Old 06-04-2015, 07:45 PM
bu2
 
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Originally Posted by JoeP View Post
DC already has. DC is really the 4th largest area in the country.
Only if you include Baltimore. Without, its a good ways behind Dallas and Houston.
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Old 06-04-2015, 07:57 PM
 
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Only if you include Baltimore. Without, its a good ways behind Dallas and Houston
Of course, but they had been combined in the past and should be now. They are way too big and too close to not count because of semantics.
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Old 06-04-2015, 08:01 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bu2 View Post
Philly could fall from 5th to 9th in one decade. Houston passed them shortly after the census. At the current pace, DC will pass them shortly, if they haven't already, as well as Miami.
- Dallas/Fort Worth MSA surpassed Philadelphia MSA for 4th largest MSA in the United States in 2006.

- Houston MSA surpassed Philadelphia MSA for 5th largest MSA in the United States in 2011.

- Washington, D.C. MSA as of right now (June 4th, 2015) has already surpassed Philadelphia MSA for 6th largest MSA in the United States in 2015 (but we will officially be notified next year in March when the 2015 numbers come out).

- Miami/Fort Lauderdale MSA is poised to surpass the Philadelphia MSA for 7th largest MSA in the United States in 2017 (so we will be notified officially in March of 2018).

- Atlanta MSA is poised to surpass the Philadelphia MSA for 8th largest MSA in the United States in 2020 (se we will find out in March 2021 when the 2020 census information becomes public to us).

So basically in 15 years (2005-2020) Philadelphia MSA will have gone from being the 4th largest MSA in the United States to dropping down to the 9th largest MSA of the United States. That is down 5 spots from its post-2000 peak of 4th largest.

Then there is Phoenix MSA to eventually worry about for them and also a San Francisco/Oakland MSA to worry about (as it looks like Stockton will be eventually added into the San Francisco/Oakland MSA). Even if Stockton isn't added, the San Francisco/Oakland MSA has the growth rate to sustain surpassing Philadelphia MSA a few decades down the line. If either of these two speed up even more, Philadelphia will be out of the top 10 altogether in just a few more decades (earlier) and signs point to them speeding up as the country reverts back to the same Sunbelt boom that persisted before the 2008 housing crash/Great Recession.

There is not a major city in the United States that will fall more out of favor than Philadelphia MSA. It isn't just MSA either, this is happening to Philadelphia at the UA and CSA levels too, and of course the city proper level as well.

Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 06-04-2015 at 08:23 PM..
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Old 06-04-2015, 08:30 PM
 
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It's New York City's fault.
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Old 06-04-2015, 08:34 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aries4118 View Post
It's New York City's fault.
Nah. I found this site that has tables for every MSA from 1970 and it updates every year with the new census information.

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA Population and Components of Change -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home

Philadelphia MSA barely ever grows. If you look at the chart from 1970 to 2014, the highest growth year Philadelphia MSA has had was 1987 when it grew by 0.9% in one year and 48,018 people.

Philadelphia MSA hasn't topped reached 1% annual growth in over 44 years in history and given how rapidly its population is aging as well as outward domestic migration increasing again (for it) and barely any immigration at all, it seems it may never grow 1% or more ever again in its history.

Basically stalled out. It sucks but "getting surpassed" is the new normal for Philadelphia and not just by MSA either but by city, UA, CSA, DMA, GDP, Total Personal Income, importance, diversity, airport connections, so on.
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Old 06-04-2015, 09:56 PM
 
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What I mean is that NYC is the hegemonic city of the region. Philly is too close to the "sun" and caint compete (in terms of growth) with peer cities of similar size.
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Old 06-04-2015, 11:06 PM
 
34,541 posts, read 31,852,224 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeP View Post
Of course, but they had been combined in the past and should be now. They are way too big and too close to not count because of semantics.
I think it's appropriate for the region to be a CSA; there's obviously interaction between DC and Baltimore but they are definitely very distinct urban areas with their own identities, and there's some thinning of development between the two (although that won't last for long).
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