09-06-2016, 12:13 PM
Location: Duluth, GA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
arjay57
The Braves have been playing decent ball lately.
For all the talent they have in the upper minors, its hard not to think they'll be out of the NL East basement this time next year.
Just don't count on a worst-to-first campaign, unless they trade for veteran talent.
09-06-2016, 12:13 PM
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Are you predicting low attendance at Suntrust?. Put a number to it so posterity can see hire foolish you were, we'll out it right next to shook the other butthurt predictions.
09-06-2016, 12:23 PM
Location: Georgia
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Part of it is that the Braves just aren't as much a part of the psyche of Atlanta as they were a couple decades ago. Used to, you couldn't go around town without overhearing someone talking about the Braves, particularly late in the season. Now, literally the most common thing you hear about them is their new ballpark.
09-06-2016, 12:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
whodean
Are you predicting low attendance at Suntrust?. Put a number to it so posterity can see hire foolish you were, we'll out it right next to shook the other butthurt predictions.
Sure:
They will do fine the first year in a new stadium of course but then it will slowly decline (like what the G-Braves are seeing).
Their average attendance at STP, of course, will never top what they saw in 1993, 1994, 1997 any year at STP. But that is no surprise, that is just a mathematical reality. The Braves are building their new stadium with that in mind.
Within the first five years, they will see avg attendance at STP drop below the
lowest avg attendance they saw in the 20 years before announcing the move (1992 - 2013 or 29,300 a game).
Within the first ten years, they will see avg attendance below their current terrible attendance of ~24k a game / second worst in MLB.
But honestly, I would not be surprised if they do worse than that.
09-06-2016, 01:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
whodean
Are you predicting low attendance at Suntrust?. Put a number to it so posterity can see hire foolish you were, we'll out it right next to shook the other butthurt predictions.
Was thinking about this over the weekend actually. I think season 1 will average out at about 32k per game at Suntrust.
What do you think Whodean? Does that number feel about right?
09-06-2016, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
ATLondoner
Was thinking about this over the weekend actually. I think season 1 will average out at about 32k per game at Suntrust.
I think that is realistic. Maybe even conservative depending on how well they are playing. That is lower than their 20 yr avg attendance before announcing their move (Which my math puts at about 35k a game). Their first year at Turner they averaged 42,771.
Last edited by jsvh; 09-06-2016 at 01:27 PM ..
09-06-2016, 01:32 PM
Location: NW Atlanta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
jsvh
Sure:
The trend towards smaller MLB stadiums isn't restricted to the Braves. In any case, why build thousands of seats you don't need (even the Ted should've maxed out at about 5,000 seats less)?
Quote:
Within the first five years, they will see avg attendance at STP drop below the lowest avg attendance they saw in the 20 years before announcing the move (1992 - 2013 or 29,300 a game).
Sounds like wishful thinking on your part.
09-06-2016, 01:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gulch
Sounds like wishful thinking on your part.
Set your timer for five & ten years and let's see. :-)
09-06-2016, 01:50 PM
Location: NW Atlanta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
jsvh
Set your timer for five & ten years and let's see. :-)
Do we assume that the reconstruction of the farm system is a failure and Dansby is a bust?
09-06-2016, 02:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gulch
Do we assume that the reconstruction of the farm system is a failure and Dansby is a bust?
I am assuming they improve back to a winning record. Obviously if they win the next 5 world series they will do better than my projections. But as the G-Braves show, winning is not the only factor in attendance.
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Occupied housing units (%)
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Residents with income below the poverty level (%)
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1996 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Clinton)
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Urban houses (%)
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Mortgage status - with home equity loan (%)
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Average family size - White
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Geographical mobility - Same house 1 year ago (%)
Geographical mobility - Moved within same county (%)
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Construction and extraction occupations (%)
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People in Group quarters - Institutionalized population (%)
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People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
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People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
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People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
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People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
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Residents speaking English at home (%)
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Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
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Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
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Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
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Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
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House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
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House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
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Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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