Cobb leaders are calling transit connectivity imperative (Atlanta, Vinings: power lines, mattress)

[fourthwarden]

Originally Posted by bu2

We've talked about that on here before. Cumberland wants rail. That CID ought to join MARTA.

Originally Posted by bu2

Don't know if there is a district around 6 flags, but that might be another CID that could join.

Can you show me the math that says that if the CIDs join that the could get rail?

I really do hate the idea of further balkanization, and piece-mealing the counties into CIDs that may or may not be able to fund proper transit efforts just screams 'awful idea' to me.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by fourthwarden

Can you show me the math that says that if the CIDs join that the could get rail?

I really do hate the idea of further balkanization, and piece-mealing the counties into CIDs that may or may not be able to fund proper transit efforts just screams 'awful idea' to me.

The counties aren't homogenous mixtures. Cumberland/Galleria is dense and urban. Acworth and Power Springs are a lot different. One size does not fit all. And one size fits all is likely to be rejected by Cobb as a whole. The only way I see Cobb accepting MARTA in the forseeable future is a system where they get less service in return for using some of their sales tax dollars for roads in the outlying parts of the county.

Getting to Cumberland/Galleria provides access to jobs to people in Fulton/DeKalb and also provides service to residents in NW Fulton County, so its a big benefit to the current service area. Its also a significant chunk of sales taxes.

[fourthwarden]

Originally Posted by bu2

The counties aren't homogenous mixtures. Cumberland/Galleria is dense and urban. Acworth and Power Springs are a lot different. One size does not fit all. And one size fits all is likely to be rejected by Cobb as a whole. The only way I see Cobb accepting MARTA in the forseeable future is a system where they get less service in return for using some of their sales tax dollars for roads in the outlying parts of the county.

Getting to Cumberland/Galleria provides access to jobs to people in Fulton/DeKalb and also provides service to residents in NW Fulton County, so its a big benefit to the current service area. Its also a significant chunk of sales taxes.

Okay, so can you show me the math than shows that the CIDs can actually support rail on their own? Yes they're dense, and yes they generate a good amount of tax, but is it enough? Can you show me those numbers?

Even so, the county needs more than a piece-meal solution. Even the the county itself acknowledges this. I'm not even sure that only serving parts and patches will be successful if there're no collector or feeder services.

[primaltech]

My preference would be for Cobb as a whole to join MARTA. Especially when/if Gwinnett as a whole joins. It will be quite ridiculous if MARTA can serve Buford and Dacula, but not Smyrna and Marietta.

But, I'd surely be happy about any type of expansion of MARTA's service area. And I live in the Cumberland CID, which is actually a pretty large area:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Cu...!4d-84.4540232

And it includes SunTrust Park/Battery, the Galleria, Cumberland Mall, Home Depot HQ, Riverwood towers, Wildwood, Circle 75, all that stuff. Things that need and want to be connected to Atlanta. And it contains largely young adult residential, and zero or almost zero SFH- so if there was a yes/no vote on MARTA, it would easily pass in this district.

As for how much revenue the district can raise, it all depends. Depends on what the tax is and how it's set up.

As for what that tax can get, well over 40 years it would certainly generate enough to fund something substantial. Probably a 1% sales tax would raise a billion dollars or more in this heavily-retail-oriented and very busy shopping and dining area.

Probably enough to do a MARTA light rail line, or a good quality MARTA BRT link, between Midtown and Cumberland.

Then if they did that, the commuter rail would still probably happen for Cobb, but it would not be by MARTA.

And yes, I think the South Cobb/Six Flags area is a CID, or I know I've seen it proposed. And yes, they too could join MARTA, raise the 1% sales tax just in their CID (which would EASILY pass in that area), and fund MARTA Blue line HRT expansion just across the river to Six Flags, probably collaborate with Fulton who could fund the Fulton Industrial Blvd station, and Atlanta could fund the Adamsville station.

[primaltech]

Meanwhile in Gwinnett, you could have a similar 'compromise' type of solution. Peachtree Corners, and possibly Norcross, could be permitted to vote to join MARTA, which is a likely yes.

Then, the Gold line HRT could serve the 141 area, and MARTA buses could serve that area and link Johns Creek and Roswell.

Meanwhile, Gwinnett would also have a commuter rail, or some other solution, for the rest of their county, that would not be by MARTA.

[primaltech]

Oh, and Smyrna and Marietta both border the CID:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sm...5!4d-84.514389

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ma...!4d-84.5499229

So... hypothetically, if the CID joined, then they could then later vote to join, and it would be a continuous service area.

Just a thought.

[fourthwarden]

So, because no one else would bother to do the math, I figured I would. This analysis of Cumberland CID's economic impact says that the CID paid $8,284,535 in sales tax revenue for the county in 2012 (page 66). In 2012, Cobb's Sales Tax Rate was 6%, meaning that the CID generated $138,075,583 worth of taxable retail sales.

Assuming the current amount today is, oh let's say, $150 Mil. annually, that means that a 1% MARTA tax would bring in $1.5 Mil. annually, or $60 Mil. over 40 years. Assuming a full federal backing, you'd get a whole $120 Mil. to build something with. Well, that wouldn't get you one mile of heavy rail. It would get you maybe 4.8 miles of commuter rail on a route that needs 12 miles. It would get you 12 miles of BRT, but that just seems like a waste of resources for an area that wants more than BRT.


By comparison, the entirety of Cobb county would bring in an estimated $131 Mil. in sales tax revenue annually (page 22) from a 1% tax, totaling ~$5.3 Bil. over 40 years, though a 2020 referendum would only actually give you 37 years until the MARTA tax is renewed.

That 37 years figure is enough to build nearly 16 miles of heavy rail from Arts Center to Marietta, over 70 miles of commuter rail from the MMPT to Acworth, Noonday, and Powder Springs, some 50 miles of BRT, and still have $1.2 Billion left over for a bagin' regular bus network of Express, ART, Frequent, Local, and Circulator services.

So yeah, I'm not sold on the idea of letting the CIDs come in on their own and expecting anything worthwhile to come from that.

[primaltech]

Your math seems extremely wrong. That just doesn't seem right at all.

You're saying that a 1% sales tax in all of Cobb County would generate $5.3 billion over 40 years, but in Cumberland would only generate $60 million over 40 years?

So Cumberland is 1% of Cobb's economy? Really? Something seems extremely fishy about those numbers.

[cqholt]

$400M in taxpayer funds to the Braves would have gone a long way in funding high quality transit.

[primaltech]

The freakin Vinings Chick-Fil-A at the corner of Paces Ferry and Cumberland Pkwy, ALONE, will probably generate $60 million in 40 years with 1% of their sales. That place is slammed from morning to night, 6 days a week.

I mean, I'm exaggerating, but I think we need to take a closer look at your estimates there.