An early preview of the 2018 Georgia governor's race (Atlanta, Dunwoody: 2014, house)

[Born 2 Roll]

Mike Hassinger of the Georgia state political website "GeorgiaPol.com" looks beyond the current increasingly bitter 2016 presidential election to take a glance at the field of potential contenders for the 2018 Georgia governor's race.

Since the Republican Party is by far the dominant party in Georgia statewide politics at the moment and includes most of the strongest potential gubernatorial contenders for 2018 and because the field of contenders currently seems to be not so clearly defined on the Democratic side of the political spectrum, Hassinger only takes a look at the contenders on the Republican side of the spectrum where races for statewide offices are almost completely decided these days in GOP primaries.

Amongst the strongest contenders for the 2018 Georgia governor's race that Hassinger cites are:

> Current leading Donald Trump Georgia surrogate, 2014 Georgia GOP U.S. Senate primary runner-up and former Southeast Georgia congressman Jack Kingston...

> Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp...

> Georgia Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle...

> Georgia House Speaker David Ralston...

> Outgoing West Georgia U.S. Representative Lynn Westmoreland...

> Suburban North Metro Atlanta U.S. Representative and U.S. House Budget Committee Chairman Tom Price...

> Georgia 14th Congressional District U.S. Representative Tom Graves (...who represents a Northwest Georgia district that has been recognized as the 9th-most Republican-leaning congressional district in the entire U.S.)...

> Georgia 9th Congressional District U.S. Representative Doug Collins (...who represents a Gainesville-centered Northeast Georgia district that has been recognized as the 3rd-most Republican-leaning congressional district in the entire U.S.).

"Handicapping Georgia 2018" (GeorgiaPol.com)
https://www.georgiapol.com/2016/10/1...-georgia-2018/

[bryantm3]

Lynn westmoreland is literally an idiot.

Jack Kingston might have had a chance, but I don't believe serving as Trump's excuse man on CNN is going to look great, especially two years from now when the effects of his candidacy on the GOP as an institution are fully known.

I haven't paid enough attention to the others to make a determination, but I don't see Tom Price running for governor; it seems like it would be a step back for him given his importance to the house GOP.

[arjay57]

I could support David Ralston.

[primaltech]

Our state is so depressing. And this might as well be the full field, since the Democrat never stands a chance.

Ralston is the least bad person here, followed by Cagle. I cannot stand Tom Price or Jack Kingston.

[cqholt]

Can we get a real contender who cares about the citizens of Georgia and not business interests?

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by primaltech

Our state is so depressing. And this might as well be the full field, since the Democrat never stands a chance.

As I recall, less than 40% of registered voters bothered to cast a ballot in the last Georgia governor's election.

So it's hard to say what the citizens actually want, or whether they even care.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by bryantm3

Lynn westmoreland is literally an idiot.

Jack Kingston might have had a chance, but I don't believe serving as Trump's excuse man on CNN is going to look great, especially two years from now when the effects of his candidacy on the GOP as an institution are fully known.

I haven't paid enough attention to the others to make a determination, but I don't see Tom Price running for governor; it seems like it would be a step back for him given his importance to the house GOP.

I agree with bryant that Lynn Westmoreland does not always quite come across as the sharpest tool in the shed.

But Lynn Westmoreland is a political figure by seems to be very well liked by the deeply conservative voters that dominate Georgia's electorate. Because of the national business and financial connections that he has made during his time in Congress, Westmoreland also seems to have very easy (if not the easiest) access to the financial capital that is needed to mount a run for governor in a state as populous as Georgia which includes a top-10 media market in Atlanta.

It is because of Westmoreland's national and business connections that he would likely be considered the main frontrunner if he were to enter the 2018 Georgia governor's race.

I also agree with bryant that the chances of Tom Price entering the race seem to be somewhat slim because of his seniority within Congress and the House GOP caucus.

Though Price often seems to be mentioned as a potential candidate for governor because of the affluence of the area that he represents in Congress in Georgia's 6th Congressional District...An area which includes all of North Fulton County north of I-285, all of North DeKalb County (including Dunwoody and Brookhaven) and almost all of East Cobb...An area of great wealth and affluence which is basically the epicenter of GOP rule in Republican-dominated Georgia.

If Price were to enter the race, he would likely have even greater access than Westmoreland to the financial capital that is needed to mount a run for governor in a state like Georgia that is anchored by a major (if not massive) media market like Atlanta.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by primaltech

Our state is so depressing. And this might as well be the full field, since the Democrat never stands a chance.

It is understandable how one could be depressed, particularly if one is a progressive voter in a state in Georgia that continues to be dominated by decidedly right-of-center politics.

But even with the current domination of Georgia's statewide political climate by decidedly conservative political forces, Democrats and progressives appear to have much long-term growth potential in Georgia statewide politics because of massive demographic changes that continue to trend heavily away from the hard-right and much more strongly towards the center and left sides of the political spectrum.

It's just that those massive demographic changes in Georgia's population likely will not began to fully manifest themselves in Georgia's electorate for about another decade or so (give or take a few years).

Originally Posted by primaltech

Ralston is the least bad person here, followed by Cagle. I cannot stand Tom Price or Jack Kingston.

Originally Posted by arjay57

I could support David Ralston.

David Ralston seems to have done a fairly decent job bringing a good degree of stability to a governing body in the Georgia House of Representatives that had plunged into a state of extreme dysfunction and disarray under the direction of previous House Speaker Glenn Richardson, an emotionally-unstable manic depressive who attempted suicide while going through a worsening mid-life crisis during his stint as Georgia's first Republican House speaker since Reconstruction.

With the important role that he has played in helping to bring a relative amount of stability back to the Georgia House of Representatives after a volatile period in the late 2000's, it is not clear that Ralston is interested in a run for governor at this time.

Outside of a potential run for governor by such abundantly financially-backed congressional political titans like Lynn Westmoreland or Tom Price, Lt. Governor Casey Cagle seems to have the best relationship with the state's massive business community. Lt. Governor Cagle also seems to be the Republican political figure that is in the best position to attempt to bridge the widening gap between the state's increasingly aspirant business community and the state's politically and electorally dominant faction of evangelical religious social conservatives.

And, as Mike Hassinger mentioned in the GeorgiaPol.com blog entry, Lt. Governor Cagle also seems to have great relations with and enjoy the most support from the state's very fast-growing demographic of African-American voters.

Originally Posted by cqholt

Can we get a real contender who cares about the citizens of Georgia and not business interests?

With Georgia being dominated by a top-10 sized media market with a very large and domineering business community in Metro Atlanta and North Georgia, it would be awfully difficult, if not downright impossible, for a candidate running for an office as high-profile as governor to not have a close relationship with that very domineering community of business interests.

It takes much money and financial backing to run for governor in every state. And being in a state with a top-10 media (TV/radio) market in Metro Atlanta and North Georgia means that it takes even more money (particularly to place ads on-air) than it does in states with smaller populations and smaller media markets.

Originally Posted by arjay57

As I recall, less than 40% of registered voters bothered to cast a ballot in the last Georgia governor's election.

So it's hard to say what the citizens actually want, or whether they even care.

That's not necessarily unusual that fewer than 40% of registered voters participated in the Georgia gubernatorial election....That's because of the fact that Georgia holds its elections for governor and constitutional statewide offices outside of presidential election years during somewhat off-year mid-term election years when fewer voters typically turnout and when election turnout is often thoroughly dominated by decidedly-conservative Republican-leaning voters.

Understandably, presidential election years generate the most voter turnout because of the significantly increased interest in presidential races.

In recent years as the state's high population growth continues to trend the state's demographic changes increasingly in favor of potential Democratic Party competitiveness down the road, there has been some fear in Republican circles that Democrats (if they were to ever regain power in Georgia) might try and move elections for governor and other constitutionally-mandated statewide offices to presidential election years when Democratic-leaning voters (moderate and progressive voters) turnout in much higher numbers than in mid-term election years. Republicans fear that such a move by a Democratically-controlled Georgia state government could put Republicans at a distinct electoral disadvantage in a state where the demographics continue to trend increasingly heavily towards increased Democratic competitiveness down the road.

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by cqholt

Can we get a real contender who cares about the citizens of Georgia and not business interests?

Those interests are not necessarily mutually exclusive IMO.
I think Deal has actually done a reasonable job at promoting both; although he has been very proactive in pursuing business development in the state, he's shown himself to be unafraid to risk political capital in order to do the right thing. It could be argued that his veto of the Religious Freedom Bill was a business decision, but it was IMO a courageous step forward for the preservation of civil rights.

[AnsleyPark]

Here is a relevant article from the AJC:

Tom Price for governor rumblings grow with $116K in Georgia donations