DeKalb County and Hall County racial makeup, future. (Atlanta, Gainesville: 2015, rental)

[Turnerbro]

2 questions. Do you think DeKalb county will lose it's black majority in the near future? It currently sits at just over 52%, with the increasing white population in the inner areas I could really see that happing, especially if some of that spreads outside the perimeter. Also why are there so many Hispanics in Hall county???? That county is currently 27% Hispanic, very unusual for an exurb county to have that many Hispanics, any idea why that is. Also yes these are just question because I'm genuinely curious.

[BeyondInfinity]

The only way that DeKalb would lose its black majority is if South DeKalb is gentrified. I do not see that happening anytime soon.

Hall County has a high Hispanic population due to the poultry farms up there. Gainesville, GA is the Poultry capital of the world (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gainesville,_Georgia).

[Turnerbro]

Originally Posted by BeyondInfinity

The only way that DeKalb would lose its black majority is if South DeKalb is gentrified. I do not see that happening anytime soon.

Hall County has a high Hispanic population due to the poultry farms up there. Gainesville, GA is the Poultry capital of the world (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gainesville,_Georgia).

South DeKalb will probably never truly become gentrified, but I think Stone Mountain and Clarkston could in the near future. Although I will say that gentrification doesn't always mean white people.

[Clayton white guy]

Dekalb County has NEVER been like 70% Black like the City of Atlanta (well upper 60's% anyway) in the early 1990's. It has always been close in its ethnic make up and diverse, too, thanks to the many immigrant communities in Clarkston and along the Buford Highway corridor .

A slight flip of "Atlanta in Dekalb" adjacent communities (think about the neighborhoods that touch Atlanta's Eastlake, etc) or perhaps massive gentrification stemming out of the Stone Mountain historic district or from always lovely and upper middle class Avondale Estates (that has always seemed to be a "peninsula of niceness" sticking out of the east side of the City of Decatur: what if Belvedere Park returned to its former role as a stable middle class community; Forest Hills really seemed to be gentrifying until they lost their community elementary school) could really slide the scale a little bit.

It is not like Dekalb County will become a majority White county, just one with a a Black plurality instead of a a majority (for those of you who are not familiar with this term, it means that no ethnic group will have a majority, that is 50% plus one; a plurality means that one ethnic group will still be larger than any other, they just will not have a majority.) Many have suggested that the City of Atlanta may already be at this place: a Black plurality, but no ethnic group having a majority. No biggie, really. I think this may also be the case in Fulton County and Gwinnett.

[cwkimbro]

Well said BI

I would add... Overall Hall Co is not an exurban county.

It has exurban areas, but Gainesville is an established city. It had about 100,000 people before metro Atlanta's growth really caught up with it. What is interesting is the southern part of Hall Co is an exurban area that is rapidly suburbanizing and it is Gwinnett/Atlanta-centric growth fueling it, not Gainesville.


I do think it is possible that black's could lose the majority of Dekalb (ie. below 50%), but I see that being top race for a long time to come.

Between 2010 and 2015 blacks actually jumped from 54.3% to 54.7%. That is still increasing, even at a slow rate.

Whites increased too, from 29.4% to 29.7% Again, a slow pace.

Asians increased from 5.1% to 6.2%

Hispanics fell from 9.8% to 8.8%

I think most of the gentrification has been going on in the northern end of the county near Buford Highway, Brookhaven, and Chamblee.

The gentrification in the central western part of the county has had smaller household sizes and replaced smaller household sizes more often.

What is interesting about Dekalb is the larger household sizes to the southwest and eastern parts west of Lithonia. There are more people per dwelling (larger families) and they are predominately black.

The other issue is the amount of older, cheaper rental properties in the central and central eastern parts of the county. Those areas have a long way to go before they change.

[Forhall]

Decatur and the City of Atlanta are getting more white, and Doraville and Chamblee in northern Dekalb are getting more asian. So yes, I could see it becoming less than 50% black soon.

[Turnerbro]

Originally Posted by Clayton white guy

Dekalb County has NEVER been like 70% Black like the City of Atlanta (well upper 60's% anyway) in the early 1990's. It has always been close in its ethnic make up and diverse, too, thanks to the many immigrant communities in Clarkston and along the Buford Highway corridor .

A slight flip of "Atlanta in Dekalb" adjacent communities (think about the neighborhoods that touch Atlanta's Eastlake, etc) or perhaps massive gentrification stemming out of the Stone Mountain historic district or from always lovely and upper middle class Avondale Estates (that has always seemed to be a "peninsula of niceness" sticking out of the east side of the City of Decatur: what if Belvedere Park returned to its former role as a stable middle class community; Forest Hills really seemed to be gentrifying until they lost their community elementary school) could really slide the scale a little bit.

It is not like Dekalb County will become a majority White county, just one with a a Black plurality instead of a a majority (for those of you who are not familiar with this term, it means that no ethnic group will have a majority, that is 50% plus one; a plurality means that one ethnic group will still be larger than any other, they just will not have a majority.) Many have suggested that the City of Atlanta may already be at this place: a Black plurality, but no ethnic group having a majority. No biggie, really. I think this may also be the case in Fulton County and Gwinnett.

Yeah I think in the future most close in metro ATL counties won't have a majority race. I didn't mention Cobb county losing its white majority, but I think most people saw that one coming. Update (Cobb county hasn't officially lost it's white majority but it probably will soon)

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by Forhall

Decatur and the City of Atlanta are getting more white, and Doraville and Chamblee in northern Dekalb are getting more asian. So yes, I could see it becoming less than 50% black soon.

That isn't completely accurate.

The Asian population in that area is stagnant. It was the first area of Atlanta to have a mostly Asian-centric population, but a mix of small bits of gentrification and a increasing Hispanic population are changing things a small bit.

Doraville's Asian population decreased from 14.7% in 2010 to 12.5% in 2015.

In Chamblee it increased 0.4% points to 7.5%, but overall greater declines in that whole stretch.

Most of Dekalb's increasing Asians I believe comes from 2 places: A small mix sporadically across many areas where they don't hold large numbers and in a small nook west of Clarkston and northeast of Decatur has an Indian stronghold.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by Clayton white guy

Dekalb County has NEVER been like 70% Black like the City of Atlanta (well upper 60's% anyway) in the early 1990's. It has always been close in its ethnic make up and diverse, too, thanks to the many immigrant communities in Clarkston and along the Buford Highway corridor .

A slight flip of "Atlanta in Dekalb" adjacent communities (think about the neighborhoods that touch Atlanta's Eastlake, etc) or perhaps massive gentrification stemming out of the Stone Mountain historic district or from always lovely and upper middle class Avondale Estates (that has always seemed to be a "peninsula of niceness" sticking out of the east side of the City of Decatur: what if Belvedere Park returned to its former role as a stable middle class community; Forest Hills really seemed to be gentrifying until they lost their community elementary school) could really slide the scale a little bit.

It is not like Dekalb County will become a majority White county, just one with a a Black plurality instead of a a majority (for those of you who are not familiar with this term, it means that no ethnic group will have a majority, that is 50% plus one; a plurality means that one ethnic group will still be larger than any other, they just will not have a majority.) Many have suggested that the City of Atlanta may already be at this place: a Black plurality, but no ethnic group having a majority. No biggie, really. I think this may also be the case in Fulton County and Gwinnett.

Tend to agree. Hispanic and other are growing in DeKalb County. It will remain a plurality Black county for the forseeable future, but not necessarily majority Black.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

Well said BI

I would add... Overall Hall Co is not an exurban county.

It has exurban areas, but Gainesville is an established city. It had about 100,000 people before metro Atlanta's growth really caught up with it. What is interesting is the southern part of Hall Co is an exurban area that is rapidly suburbanizing and it is Gwinnett/Atlanta-centric growth fueling it, not Gainesville.


I do think it is possible that black's could lose the majority of Dekalb (ie. below 50%), but I see that being top race for a long time to come.

Between 2010 and 2015 blacks actually jumped from 54.3% to 54.7%. That is still increasing, even at a slow rate.

Whites increased too, from 29.4% to 29.7% Again, a slow pace.

Asians increased from 5.1% to 6.2%

Hispanics fell from 9.8% to 8.8%

I think most of the gentrification has been going on in the northern end of the county near Buford Highway, Brookhaven, and Chamblee.

The gentrification in the central western part of the county has had smaller household sizes and replaced smaller household sizes more often.

What is interesting about Dekalb is the larger household sizes to the southwest and eastern parts west of Lithonia. There are more people per dwelling (larger families) and they are predominately black.

The other issue is the amount of older, cheaper rental properties in the central and central eastern parts of the county. Those areas have a long way to go before they change.

Posted mine before I read yours. Surprised the Hispanic population has dropped. Not seeing that in the schools yet. Those Buford Highway schools are still really crowded.