Hypothetical Question about the future (Atlanta, Columbus: layoffs, transfer, construction)

[bigup]

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

it's superior to Atlanta in every natural measure unless being an hour away from some mountains is a deal maker for you.

Haha, having "some" mountains nearby is a deal-maker for me--hiking/backpacking, camping, fly-fishing and kayaking!

[LTCM]

Charleston is a truely great city. I was raised in the metro area. My family still has multiple properties in the region and the parents will retire there. It's one of the only Southern citiy which can stand toe to toe with the great New England cities and not blink.

But the employment options for professionals is borderline non existent. I have a friend with a law degree who lives there. Her salary, compared to what she would be making in Atlanta, is laughable. The number of professional jobs compared to the number of people who want them drives salarys way down. MUSC is really the only big game in town.

I try to think of a way to get back there, but there are few options.

[arjay57]

One factor I was thinking about is that the ATL is very much a real estate city. Offices, retail, condos and apartments, single family homes are all important in the fortunes of our town.

As I recall Atlanta's dependence on real estate (and the slow cycling in that industry) was often cited as a reason we were slow to recover from the recession.

[arjay57]

And what about retail? Are we overbuilt for the age of online shopping?

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by arjay57

And what about retail? Are we overbuilt for the age of online shopping?

I think we are already seeing big trouble crop up for retail but it seems like it is focused around the big box stores. Which makes sense, why drive 20 miles for that discount when you can get it delivered to your door for even less.

However, I think things like the neighborhood corner convenience store will still be around. If you need something right now and it is available right around the corner you will get it, even if it costs you a bit more. Also, I think there will still be a niche for specialty stores with premium products that you just "have to have" after you see it in person and cannot easily find it online.

[primaltech]

Agreed with the comment earlier about Jacksonville.

By all logic and reason, Atlanta and Jacksonville should be switched. Jacksonville has double the population of Atlanta, and Florida has double the population of Georgia. Jacksonville is in on a major river, right next to an ocean. It's warm and sunny. It has a street grid almost on par with Chicago or Philadelphia. It's right on I-95 and I-10, and it has a perimeter, I-295. The metro area has warm water, beautiful sandy beaches, 10 miles from downtown. Downtown is right on the water.

Yet, for whatever reasons, Atlanta blows Jacksonville away in basically every meaningful way. Not even a comparison.

Atlanta is truly an anomaly of a city. It kind of makes no sense. But somehow it works, and has been so successful, economically and culturally. It can't all be because of a busy airport. Can it? It's an interesting anomaly, to say the least.

[-thomass]

Originally Posted by primaltech

Agreed with the comment earlier about Jacksonville.

By all logic and reason, Atlanta and Jacksonville should be switched. Jacksonville has double the population of Atlanta, and Florida has double the population of Georgia. Jacksonville is in on a major river, right next to an ocean. It's warm and sunny. It has a street grid almost on par with Chicago or Philadelphia. It's right on I-95 and I-10, and it has a perimeter, I-295. The metro area has warm water, beautiful sandy beaches, 10 miles from downtown. Downtown is right on the water.

Yet, for whatever reasons, Atlanta blows Jacksonville away in basically every meaningful way. Not even a comparison.

Atlanta is truly an anomaly of a city. It kind of makes no sense. But somehow it works, and has been so successful, economically and culturally. It can't all be because of a busy airport. Can it? It's an interesting anomaly, to say the least.

Atlanta is a major economic hub with a GDP that rivals other top world cities. Atlanta has world class institutions, yada yada yada. Certainly a thriving airport helps. Jacksonville has more population because their city limits are much wider, a la Dallas, Houston, phoenix, etc.

[krogerDisco]

Originally Posted by DJDeadParrot

I really think you answered your own question in noting that, for Cleveland and Detroit [throw Pittsburgh in there, too], a decline in manufacturing had catastrophic, decades-long, effects on the well-being of those cities. Post-WWII suburbanization only facilitated this decline. Remember, too, that those cities experienced extremely rapid growth in the early 20th century as newly arrived immigrants moved westward from already overcrowded east coast cities.

I think there is a general movement of populations back to cities. That may revive some. I'm wondering about the future of small to medium sized towns. They had an influx of manufacturing as it left cities for cheaper places. Now it is moving overseas. Towns just have agriculture as its base.

Atlanta might be more or less bullet-proof as it has a diversified economy. Although the last recession exposed some weaknesses.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by arjay57

I've been reading about the decline of once great cities like Cleveland and Detroit. They actually seem to be doing better of late, but there's no denying they both took massive hits from the 1950s onward. Both of them lost around 60% of their population. When you visit, you see large areas that have been decimated.

Obviously a great deal of that had to do with the decline of manufacturing.

Contrast those situations with Atlanta. Yes, the city proper lost about 20% of its population after 1970, but we are now close to recovering that. And despite that, I always had the sense that we were on the upswing. We had a huge influx of new businesses and corporate headquarters, new pro sports teams, a spectacularly booming skyline, massively growing suburbs, our huge airport, a new subway, the ascendancy of our universities, advances in science, the arts, media, and entertainment, and major growth on almost every other front. We had the Olympics. Crime decreased.

So here's what I'm getting at. Could the ATL experience something like the big Rustbelt cities, where the props were basically kicked out from underneath them? Do we have an Achilles heel that makes us vulnerable to that kind of collapse? If so, do we need to be doing something to prevent it? Are there lessons to be learned?

Economy-wise I think we are going to be OK going forward. Some Rust Belt cities such as Cleveland, Erie, etc. got hit hard by the outsourcing of the 1970s and '80s, and they haven't fully recovered. But our economy is mostly a service economy and not as affected by such problems.

[cqholt]

Originally Posted by primaltech

I love Atlanta, but Charleston blows Atlanta away in terms of urban. I spent a week vacation with my lady friend just walking around and exploring that city, didn't even use the car once, and it wouldn't have even been useful if we did. Just kept it parked at the inn the whole time.

I mean, just look at this incredibly density:

https://www.google.com/maps/@32.7809107,-79.9327882,19z

It's a critical mass of retail right around that whole area. Downright European.

I came back from that trip jealous. Atlanta obviously is a whole lot bigger and has a whole lot more, but I just wish we could take everything that the metro has, and compact it into a much smaller area.

Comparing a colonial city to one that was burned down, rebuilt after the Civil War and matured during the age of autos.