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Old 03-07-2018, 02:49 PM
 
1,049 posts, read 676,790 times
Reputation: 783

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Question from poll and response:

Quote:
And, thinking some more about Casey Cagle’s response to Delta Airlines’ decision to stop offering discounted fares to National Rifle Association (or NRA) members by demanding the airline re-instate these discounts for NRA members or else Republican lawmakers in Georgia would strike down their 50 million dollar sales-tax exemption... do you support or oppose Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle and Republican lawmakers’ refusing to give Delta Airlines a 50 million dollar tax break after Delta’s decision to end their program with NRA members?
(IF CHOICE, ASK: ) And, do you STRONGLY (choice) or SOMEWHAT (choice) that?
35% STRONGLY SUPPORT
14% SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
16% SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
22% STRONGLY OPPOSE
10% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ) 3% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

50% TOTAL SUPPORT
38% TOTAL OPPOSE
Also keep in mind that this question was posed to Republicans only.
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Old 03-07-2018, 02:56 PM
 
1,049 posts, read 676,790 times
Reputation: 783
Well turns out 57 % actually agree with his comments.

Quote:
Question 7
Next, I am going to read you the exact response from Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle about Delta’s decision to end airfare discounts for NRA members, and after I read this, please tell me if you AGREE or DISAGREE with Casey Cagle’s response. The statement is...
QUOTE I will kill any tax legislation that benefits Delta unless the company changes its position and fully reinstates its relationship with NRA. Corporations cannot attack conservatives and expect us not to fight back. END QUOTE
Having heard this, do you AGREE or DISAGREE with Casey Cagle’s response?
(IF AGREE/DISAGREE) And, do you STRONGLY (agree/disagree) or just SOMEWHAT (agree/disagree)?
37% STRONGLY AGREE
20% SOMEWHAT AGREE
13% SOMEWHAT DISAGREE
23% STRONGLY DISAGREE
6% DON’T KNOW/NOT SURE (DO NOT READ)
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

57% TOTAL AGREE
36% TOTAL DISAGREE
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Old 04-21-2018, 06:08 PM
 
3,316 posts, read 1,344,602 times
Reputation: 4054
Quote:
Originally Posted by -thomass View Post
Question from poll and response:



Also keep in mind that this question was posed to Republicans only.
If that was asked of Republicans only then I’m surprised that so many disagreed with that position. Now it would be interesting if that was asked from a voting cross section across the board.
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Old 04-22-2018, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Historic West End
4,460 posts, read 4,019,157 times
Reputation: 4393
Quote:
Originally Posted by primaltech View Post
Jason Carter is white, male, pro-gun lobby (voted for the guns everywhere bill), and the grandson of a Georgia governor and President of the United States... and yet he lost by a wide margin of 7.9%, taking 44.9% of the vote to Deal's 52.8%.

Granted, Deal was an incumbent, which is probably worth a couple percentage points of advantage, but still, hard to reckon that a female African-American candidate with no famous last name, has any chance. But I dunno, maybe she can energize the black vote. But the problem with that is... inadvertently she'll probably equally energize the racist mountain redneck vote.

Therefore, go Cagle? Even though I strongly disagree with everything that he, and his party stand for. And the same thing goes for every other race and every state or federal representative that I have. Ah, the southern U.S... a depressing place.
Why is Jason Carter not running?
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Old 04-22-2018, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Historic West End
4,460 posts, read 4,019,157 times
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If I was the democrats I would focus on gaining seat in the House and Senate and prepare a 2022 candidate.
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Old 04-22-2018, 02:48 PM
 
6,723 posts, read 6,333,870 times
Reputation: 4705
Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlwarrior View Post
Why is Jason Carter not running?
Jason Carter is not running because he is currently not involved in politics. He left politics after losing in the 2014 governor's race when he probably ran for governor too soon in his political career against an incumbent governor (Nathan Deal) who had never lost a political race in his career.

Jason Carter probably should have served at least another two terms in the Georgia state Senate before running for governor during a 2018 gubernatorial election cycle that (while it most likely still will be tough for Democrats to get over the hump) potentially might have been more favorable for a Democratic candidate of his caliber in an election for an open governorship in an environment in which the sitting Republican president (Donald Trump) continues to struggle significantly in the polls.

Better yet, with the sitting Georgia Lt. Governor Casey Cagle running for governor after 3 terms as LG, Carter likely might have been better served to have stayed in the Georgia state Senate for 2 more terms (4 more years) and then have run for Lt. Governor.

If Carter was running in this Lt. Governor's race, he likely would be a pretty formidable Democratic candidate for this particular cycle where Democrats look to be in position to make at least some modest gains and where the Republican frontrunner (high-ranking Georgia state Senator David Shafer of Duluth) has been hit with serious allegations of sexual harassment by a veteran female state capitol lobbyist.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlwarrior View Post
If I was the democrats I would focus on gaining seat in the House and Senate and prepare a 2022 candidate.
That is good advice which Georgia Democrats look to be heeding as much as they can.

Democrats are looking to make some modest (but important) gains in state legislative seats in both the Georgia House of Representatives and the Georgia state Senate during the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle.

But with Georgia Republicans still being in control of all statewide offices (including the all-important Governor's and Lt. Governor's offices) and both chambers of the Georgia Legislature, and with Georgia Republicans being more than likely (though not necessarily completely guaranteed) to remain in control of all statewide offices and both chambers of the Georgia Legislature by significant margins after the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle, it is going to continue to be an uphill battle for Democrats to make significant inroads in picking up state legislative seats.

Like the Democrats did when they were in control of Georgia state government, the Republicans have the state legislative districts very well gerrymandered to keep their party in firm control of the Georgia Legislature for at least another decade or so, particularly if the GOP retains control of the Governor's office as expected this fall.

Though, there are a slate of retirements from Republican-held legislative seats in Gwinnett County that do appear to have the potential to give Democrats an opportunity to make some important gains.
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Old 04-24-2018, 02:50 PM
 
1,456 posts, read 918,785 times
Reputation: 2160
A new poll in Mississippi shows the Democrat ahead by 5. In Mississippi!! And the Democratic senator won Alabama!

Why is it that Georgia is different? We are much more purple than either of those states. Why on Earth do we considering it a done deal here when Democrats are winning all over the deep South? The democrat is ahead in the TN senate race as well.

Could our eventual defeat be because we don't even try?
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Old 04-24-2018, 02:56 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
5,243 posts, read 4,978,235 times
Reputation: 2743
I think there is a real change afoot. But I also wouldn't read too much into the Alabama senate election, that was a special case

With that said, try!
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Old 04-24-2018, 02:57 PM
 
Location: North Atlanta
5,878 posts, read 4,311,744 times
Reputation: 3389
Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall View Post
A new poll in Mississippi shows the Democrat ahead by 5. In Mississippi!! And the Democratic senator won Alabama!

Why is it that Georgia is different? We are much more purple than either of those states. Why on Earth do we considering it a done deal here when Democrats are winning all over the deep South? The democrat is ahead in the TN senate race as well.

Could our eventual defeat be because we don't even try?
My dog could’ve beaten Roy Moore in that Senate special election.
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Old 04-24-2018, 05:59 PM
 
6,723 posts, read 6,333,870 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall View Post
A new poll in Mississippi shows the Democrat ahead by 5. In Mississippi!! And the Democratic senator won Alabama!
I've also seen polling that has the Democratic candidate in the Mississippi U.S. Senate special election race, former U.S. Agricultural Secretary Mike Espy, leading.

I've seen reports of polling from last month (March 2018) that showed Espy leading the jungle primary field by 7 points, and I've seen reports of polling from this month (April 12-14, 2018) that showed Espy leading potential runoff opponent, provocative Tea Party Republican Mississippi state Senator Chris McDaniel, by 2 points.

I've also seen reports of polling that shows Espy trailing by 12 points against his probable runoff opponent, Republican former Mississippi Agricultural Commissioner and former MS state Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith who was appointed to replace long time Mississippi U.S. Senator Thad Cochran who retired on April 1, 2018 because of failing health.

"POLL: Hyde-Smith fares better in runoff for U.S. Senate than McDaniel" (WTVA-TV/WLOV-TV Tupelo)
POLL: Hyde-Smith fares better in runoff for U.S. Senate than McDaniel

"United States Senate special election in Mississippi, 2018" (Ballotpedia)
https://ballotpedia.org/United_State...sissippi,_2018

The Democratic candidate, Mike Espy, who was both the first African-American and the first political figure from the Deep South to serve as the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, seems to fare well against a Republican candidate like Chris McDaniel in runoff polling because of McDaniel's history of making some sexually and racially provocative statements that alienate moderate white female voters as well as alienate Mississippi's large Black population (African-Americans make up just under 38% of Mississippi's population).

But because he is a black Democrat in a state (in Mississippi) that is completely dominated by generally deeply-conservative white Republicans, Espy does not seem to fare nearly as well in runoff polling against a Republican candidate like Cindy Hyde-Smith, who is backed by the U.S. Chamber-of-Commerce and has favorable connections to Donald Trump (Hyde-Smith served as the co-chair of Trump's Agricultural Advisory Committee during his presidential campaign) in a state where Donald Trump remains hugely popular.

The presence of a racially and sexually provocative figure like Chris McDaniel in the Mississippi U.S. Senate special election race appears to give a Democratic candidate like Mike Espy at least a modest boost in the jungle primary polling.

...But I am understandably somewhat skeptical that a black Democratic candidate like Mike Espy could get over the top against a white Trump-connected establishment Republican candidate like Cindy Hyde-Smith in a race as high-profile as a statewide special election runoff for a U.S. Senate seat in a state dominated by deeply-conservative Trump-loving white Republican voters.

And, as has been noted before, a major factor in the victory of Doug Jones in the Alabama U.S. Senate special election race back in December was that Republican Roy Moore was a uniquely and historically awful candidate for higher office.

Any other Republican political figure who was not as controversial (and as uniquely unqualified, creepy and just downright awful) of a candidate as Roy Moore was likely would have won that special election U.S. Senate race going away in a state as deeply-red and Republican-dominated as Alabama, where Republicans from President Donald Trump to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to Roy Moore himself collective did everything they could to blow what otherwise would have been a sure thing for them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall View Post
Why is it that Georgia is different? We are much more purple than either of those states. Why on Earth do we considering it a done deal here when Democrats are winning all over the deep South? The democrat is ahead in the TN senate race as well.
Those are very good questions asking why Georgia is different from other deep-red Deep South states like Mississippi (where the Democratic candidate appears to be polling well in the U.S. Senate special election race for Thad Cochran's old seat) and Alabama (where Democrat Doug Jones defeated the historically awful Republican candidate Roy Moore in the U.S. Senate special election back in December).

That is also a really good point noting that Georgia is much more purple (at least demographically) than other Deep South states like Mississippi, and Alabama, and Tennessee where popular former Democratic governor Phil Bresden appears to be polling really well (leading by 10 points in some of the most recent polling) against Tea Party darling, Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn.

By no means is the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election cycle a done deal for Georgia Democrats.

With the serious allegations of sexual harassment by a veteran lobbyist against frontrunner Republican Georgia state Senator David Shafer, Democrats look to have some prospects to improve and/or possibly perform well in the race for Georgia Lt. Governor.

Democrats also look to have a legitimate shot of performing well and potentially even getting over the top (50% + 1 in the general election or general election runoff) in the Georgia Secretary of State race if a deeply socially conservative business-averse candidate like Josh McKoon is the Republican nominee.

One of the biggest challenges for Democrats in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election cycle will the gubernatorial race itself where 3-term Lt. Governor and Georgia state Senate Casey Cagle is likely to be the Republican nominee.

Cagle's alienation of the business community with his attack on the state's largest private employer, Delta Airlines, over their ending of discounts for NRA Convention travelers potentially appears to give Georgia Democrats an opportunity to make some gains in the Governor's race.

But Cagle's attack on Delta was only a stunt to help improve his standing with Republican primary voters who are deeply pro-gun/pro-Second Amendment, deeply anti-corporate and deeply anti-ITP business and political establishment.

Should he win the Republican primary, as is currently expected, Cagle is likely to run more towards the center of the political spectrum like the widely-supported extremely pro-business/pro-corporate moderate that many Georgia voters have known him to be during his entire political career.

Plus, as noted before, both Democratic gubernatorial candidates, Stacey Abrams and Stacey Evans, have some glaring political liabilities (Abrams' personal financial challenges and weakness with white voters; Evans's weakness with black voters) that Republicans will viciously use against them during the general election in their quest to keep Georgia under Republican domination for at least one more gubernatorial term.

The continuing racial/ethnic/cultural/social demographic diversification of the Atlanta suburbs gives Democrats a very good opportunity to make some very important gains this cycle in statewide races and in state legislative races and potentially in congressional races in Georgia's 6th and 7th Congressional districts.

But the continued overwhelming domination of the Atlanta outer suburbs and exurbs and rural Georgia by deeply-conservative white voters who participate in elections at the highest rates will give Republicans a notable advantage in general election contests for statewide offices, particularly if the Republicans put forth a more moderate candidate like a Casey Cagle in the gubernatorial race and not a Roy Moore-type candidate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall View Post
Could our eventual defeat be because we don't even try?
Democrats are indeed trying to make gains this cycle.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate has been burning through large sums of money at what appears to be record rates in an effort to attempt to register large numbers of minority and moderate/progressive voters who often do not participate in elections at very high rates in a state in Georgia that has a very high population of transient and transplant residents who are very often completely detached from the political process of the state where they recently moved to.

But registering and motivating and energizing minority and moderate/progressive voters to show up at the polls at rates as high as deeply-conservative voters is a massive challenge and herculean undertaking... Particularly for a political entity that is attempting to climb out of as deep and as ominous of a hole as Georgia Democrats are attempting to climb out of in a state as big as Georgia which is now home to over 10.4 million residents.

It takes time (years, even decades) for an entity like Georgia Democrats to fight, claw and scratch their way back from the state of total political oblivion that they were in just 5 short years ago.

Georgia Democrats appear to be on a good track back to parity and competitiveness, but they will not get back there overnight, especially considering the state of total political oblivion that they were in just 5 years ago.
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