Is Stonecrest coming back (Atlanta, Marietta: employment, university, living in)

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

These comments raise a very important point: That one of the (many) factors that is working against a development like Stonecrest Mall moving forward, is the larger societal trend of many younger professionals away from suburban areas (like a Stonecrest Mall and I-20 East corridor) towards more urbanized mixed-use neighborhoods and districts in areas closer to the urban core.

Originally Posted by bu2

That's a truism that is not true. The % of people in the suburbs continues to grow. Its just that the inner core is no longer declining but is growing also, but slower than the suburbs. Some of the aging inner suburbs are declining as newer, bigger stuff gets built further out.

I did not say that all younger professionals are moving away from all suburban areas.

I said that many younger professionals (not all) are moving away from suburban areas like a Stonecrest Mall and I-20 East area towards more urbanized mixed-use neighborhoods and districts in areas closer to the urban core.

… Which, in the context of a metropolitan area like Atlanta, is an assessment that includes a noticeably relatively decreased preference by younger professionals for outlying suburban areas like Stonecrest Mall and the I-20 East corridor, and a noticeably increased preference by younger professionals for closer-in urban neighborhoods (like Intown East Atlanta, etc.) as well as closer-in suburban areas (like Decatur, Smyrna, Marietta, Brookhaven, Chamblee, Norcross proper, etc.).

That is a true assessment that the number of people in the suburbs continues to grow.

But it is also true that younger professionals have an increasing preference for living in denser mixed-use neighborhoods and districts and areas closer to urban cores in large metropolitan areas.

There is a clear and undeniable societal trend underway of many (though not all) younger professionals (particularly in the Millennial generation) preferring to live in denser urbanized environments with lots of urban amenities located close by, often (though not always) before choosing to live in less-dense suburban environments with fewer urban amenities nearby.

… Something which appears to be one of the major challenges for an area like a Stonecrest Mall (and much of the I-20 East corridor) that was considered to be a suburban area of at least decent quality before the Great Recession (and continues to be in many respects as evidenced by the new housing developments still going up in some parts of the area), but appears to be lacking the urban amenities that can attract the highest numbers of Millennial young professionals.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

I did not say that all younger professionals are moving away from all suburban areas.

I said that many younger professionals (not all) are moving away from suburban areas like a Stonecrest Mall and I-20 East area towards more urbanized mixed-use neighborhoods and districts in areas closer to the urban core.

… Which, in the context of a metropolitan area like Atlanta, is an assessment that includes a noticeably relatively decreased preference by younger professionals for outlying suburban areas like Stonecrest Mall and the I-20 East corridor, and a noticeably increased preference by younger professionals for closer-in urban neighborhoods (like Intown East Atlanta, etc.) as well as closer-in suburban areas (like Decatur, Smyrna, Marietta, Brookhaven, Chamblee, Norcross proper, etc.).

That is a true assessment that the number of people in the suburbs continues to grow.

But it is also true that younger professionals have an increasing preference for living in denser mixed-use neighborhoods and districts and areas closer to urban cores in large metropolitan areas.

There is a clear and undeniable societal trend underway of many (though not all) younger professionals (particularly in the Millennial generation) preferring to live in denser urbanized environments with lots of urban amenities located close by, often (though not always) before choosing to live in less-dense suburban environments with fewer urban amenities nearby.

… Something which appears to be one of the major challenges for an area like a Stonecrest Mall (and much of the I-20 East corridor) that was considered to be a suburban area of at least decent quality before the Great Recession (and continues to be in many respects as evidenced by the new housing developments still going up in some parts of the area), but appears to be lacking the urban amenities that can attract the highest numbers of Millennial young professionals.

Many are living in. But in actual numbers, whether for financial reasons are otherwise, is that young people are living in the burbs in a slightly higher % than boomers did at that age.

[JMatl]

Originally Posted by bu2

Many are living in. But in actual numbers, whether for financial reasons are otherwise, is that young people are living in the burbs in a slightly higher % than boomers did at that age.

And it's about affordability, not necessarily about desire.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by bu2

Many are living in. But in actual numbers, whether for financial reasons are otherwise, is that young people are living in the burbs in a slightly higher % than boomers did at that age.

I think that one thing that may factor into a statistic that may show more Millennials living in the suburbs at a slightly higher rate than Baby Boomers is that in many large major metropolitan areas, there are many closer-in outlying areas that are considered to be part of the urban area but are actually technically classified as suburbs.

Here in metro Atlanta, circa-2020, virtually every neighborhood inside of the I-285 Perimeter is thought of as being part of the urban core, while virtually almost every neighborhood outside of the I-285 (maybe save for areas at and just outside of the Perimeter like Tucker, Sandy Springs, northern Clayton County, the parts of the City of Atlanta proper and southern and western Fulton County, and maybe arguably Mableton and Smyrna) is thought of as being part of the suburbs.

Particularly here in metro Atlanta, where the central city area (the 135 square-mile City of Atlanta proper) is so small geographically relative to the size of the larger Atlanta MSA (nearly 8,400 square miles) as a whole, there are many Millennial young professionals living in trendy ITP, ATP and close-in OTP urban core areas outside of the corporate limits of the City of Atlanta proper (including in ITP areas like Decatur, Vinings, Brookhaven and Chamblee; in ATP areas like Cumberland, Sandy Springs, Dunwoody; and in closer-in OTP areas like Smyrna and Marietta) that all officially qualify as suburban areas.

On the other hand, also to your point about the very high number of Millennials living in suburban areas, there are also many Millennials living in (and being attracted to) further-out suburban communities (like Roswell, Alpharetta, Woodstock, Buford, etc.) for the combination of job opportunities, very high-quality schools, upscale retail amenities, etc.

A big problem for a retail establishment like Stonecrest Mall and surrounding area is that it is an area that does not appear to be at and/or near the top of the list of relocation destinations for the highest-paid young professional Millennials.

Which is something that also raises the point that just as there are many Millennials who work as highly-paid white-collar professionals (including in a highly-touted profession like the Tech industry), there are also many Millennials who do not work as highly-paid white-collar professionals in Tech or in any other industry.

The large number of Millennials not working in high-paid white-collar positions, and the continuing erosion of many entry-level and blue-collar jobs (like in bricks-and-mortar retail and manufacturing, etc.) has helped to create a growing income disparity between higher-paid white-collar workers and lower-paid blue-collar workers in society that malls like Stonecrest are directly adversely affected by along with various aforementioned other factors.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by JMatl

And it's about affordability, not necessarily about desire.

I think that has been the case with earlier generations as well.

When the "back to the city" movement started back in the 1960-70s, a lot of younger folks discovered that they simply could not afford the more desirable intown areas. Sure, they might find a fixer-upper in a slightly down at the heels neighborhood like Grant Park, Virginia-Highland, Decatur or Candler Park.

However, the supply of such affordable gems was limited, and once those areas began to gentrify the cost soon became out of reach for many.

Add to that the suburbs offered larger homes, excellent public schools, great shopping and, in many cases, easier access to jobs. Thus for many yuppies (the millennials of today), it made sense to move further out.

It's not surprising that the same dynamics are evident with today's younger folks, especially as they begin families.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by arjay57

I think that has been the case with earlier generations as well.

When the "back to the city" movement started back in the 1960-70s, a lot of younger folks discovered that they simply could not afford the more desirable intown areas. Sure, they might find a fixer-upper in a slightly down at the heels neighborhood like Grant Park, Virginia-Highland, Decatur or Candler Park.

However, the supply of such affordable gems was limited, and once those areas began to gentrify the cost soon became out of reach for many.

Add to that the suburbs offered larger homes, excellent public schools, great shopping and, in many cases, easier access to jobs. Thus for many yuppies (the millennials of today), it made sense to move further out.

It's not surprising that the same dynamics are evident with today's younger folks, especially as they begin families.

There is also cost-benefit. When I was just out of college, I could have afforded an apartment in a trendier close in area, but I didn't see the value in the extra price. The closer in areas have always been trendier. Its just that the long decline of the inner cities has ended. That doesn't mean the suburbs necessarily must be declining.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by bu2

There is also cost-benefit. When I was just out of college, I could have afforded an apartment in a trendier close in area, but I didn't see the value in the extra price. The closer in areas have always been trendier. Its just that the long decline of the inner cities has ended. That doesn't mean the suburbs necessarily must be declining.

That is an excellent point that the trend of more young professionals moving into urban core areas signaling that long decline of the inner cities has ended does not necessarily mean that the suburbs are declining.

And as you noted before, the suburbs are still growing very fast, including in and around a faster-growing large major Sun Belt metropolitan area like Atlanta.

But just as the suburbs are continuing to grow at a high rate, the suburbs around many major cities are also diversifying at a high rate, including socioeconomically.

Legendary North Atlanta suburbs like Cobb and Gwinnett have seen their poverty rates grow substantially with the continued growth and diversification of those areas.

Cobb County's poverty rate rose from 5.64% in 1990 to at least 9.1% in 2018, while Gwinnett County's poverty rate rose from 3.98% in 1990 to at least 9.2% in 2018.

(… Some parts of Cobb County (like the Marietta 30008 zip code) appear to have poverty rates as high as 24%, while some parts of Gwinnett County (like the Norcross 30093 zip code) appear to have poverty rates as high as 23.4%.)

Meanwhile, the area around Stonecrest Mall also seems to have experienced a steep rise in the rates of people living in poverty over the last 2-3 decades.

Nearby Rockdale County (which is located only about a mile or so east of the Stonecrest Mall area, and where the Stonecrest Mall area pulls much of its customer base from) has seen its poverty rate more than double from 6.15% in 1990 to 13.2% in 2018.

DeKalb County (where Stonecrest Mall is located) has seen its poverty rate rise from 9.87% in 1990 to 14.3% in 2018. While the City of Stonecrest itself has a poverty rate of 18.6%, and parts of the Lithonia 30058 zip code (which borders the Stonecrest Mall retail district immediately to the north) has areas where the poverty rates appear to reach as high as 36% in 2017.

The apparent sharp increase in the number of people living in poverty in a suburban area like Stonecrest/Lithonia/South DeKalb County/Rockdale appears to be one of the major factors in the unfortunate continuing decline of a shopping development like Stonecrest Mall and its adjacent retail district.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

That is an excellent point that the trend of more young professionals moving into urban core areas signaling that long decline of the inner cities has ended does not necessarily mean that the suburbs are declining.

And as you noted before, the suburbs are still growing very fast, including in and around a faster-growing large major Sun Belt metropolitan area like Atlanta.

But just as the suburbs are continuing to grow at a high rate, the suburbs around many major cities are also diversifying at a high rate, including socioeconomically.

Legendary North Atlanta suburbs like Cobb and Gwinnett have seen their poverty rates grow substantially with the continued growth and diversification of those areas.

Cobb County's poverty rate rose from 5.64% in 1990 to at least 9.1% in 2018, while Gwinnett County's poverty rate rose from 3.98% in 1990 to at least 9.2% in 2018.

(… Some parts of Cobb County (like the Marietta 30008 zip code) appear to have poverty rates as high as 24%, while some parts of Gwinnett County (like the Norcross 30093 zip code) appear to have poverty rates as high as 23.4%.)

Meanwhile, the area around Stonecrest Mall also seems to have experienced a steep rise in the rates of people living in poverty over the last 2-3 decades.

Nearby Rockdale County (which is located only about a mile or so east of the Stonecrest Mall area, and where the Stonecrest Mall area pulls much of its customer base from) has seen its poverty rate more than double from 6.15% in 1990 to 13.2% in 2018.

DeKalb County (where Stonecrest Mall is located) has seen its poverty rate rise from 9.87% in 1990 to 14.3% in 2018. While the City of Stonecrest itself has a poverty rate of 18.6%, and parts of the Lithonia 30058 zip code (which borders the Stonecrest Mall retail district immediately to the north) has areas where the poverty rates appear to reach as high as 36% in 2017.

The apparent sharp increase in the number of people living in poverty in a suburban area like Stonecrest/Lithonia/South DeKalb County/Rockdale appears to be one of the major factors in the unfortunate continuing decline of a shopping development like Stonecrest Mall and its adjacent retail district.

I think what you describe is part of a natural cycle. Neighborhoods age, decline and most revitalize. The neighborhoods built in the 80s are beginning to show their age and people who would have been there are moving out to newer neighborhoods.

People move in with kids. Their kids grow up and graduate. Their houses get old and dated. They don't have as much energy to maintain or they move to newer trendier neighborhoods. Neighborhoods decline. Eventually younger people move in, update, have kids and the cycle starts again.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by bu2

I think what you describe is part of a natural cycle. Neighborhoods age, decline and most revitalize. The neighborhoods built in the 80s are beginning to show their age and people who would have been there are moving out to newer neighborhoods.

People move in with kids. Their kids grow up and graduate. Their houses get old and dated. They don't have as much energy to maintain or they move to newer trendier neighborhoods. Neighborhoods decline. Eventually younger people move in, update, have kids and the cycle starts again.

Those are excellent points.

In addition to what you said, a mall like Stonecrest Mall appears to also be a victim of a shift in growth trends away from areas like the I-20 East corridor of the Atlanta outer suburbs towards areas like Intown Atlanta and even more towards areas like the GA-400 corridor centered 'Golden Triangle' area between Interstates 75 and 85 in North metro Atlanta.

The shift in growth trends away from an area like Stonecrest Mall and the I-20 East corridor and more towards Intown Atlanta and the 'Golden Triangle' of North metro Atlanta has left much of the rest of metro Atlanta (including Stonecrest and the I-20 East corridor) as a spillover market of sorts for the people who cannot afford to move to hot and trendy areas in Intown Atlanta and the 'Golden Triangle' of North metro Atlanta.

[Born 2 Roll]

Stonecrest mayor: Possible mall foreclosure not a ‘death sentence’ (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)