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Old 01-08-2019, 06:17 PM
 
Location: 30312
2,432 posts, read 3,824,657 times
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There was a post on here a while ago about the decline of suburban Dekalb County, and one of the main points was that the apartments were overbuilt and did not age well, attracting a more meager clientele.

Then I wondered if that is still possible in the city. Decades from now, could the new apartments going up along Memorial Dr or Edgewood Ave one day be considered outdated, lower-income housing?

Do you think a time will come when a generation flees the city in order to return to suburban life?

On the other hand, do you think that the growth of Atlanta's core is so entrenched, that (barring some major event) areas like O4W, Reynoldstown, Edgewood, or even Summerhill and Peoplestown will never return to being considered "bad", "dangerous", or "low-income" areas in the foreseeable future?

In other words, do you think gentrification is a one-way street, just with different speeds? Under normal circumstances, has a gentrified area ever reverted back to ground zero?
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Old 01-08-2019, 06:33 PM
 
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Did it ever get good?

LOL... I mean, the answer to your question is anything could happen. It wouldn't even necessarily have to be flight back to the suburbs, it could just be a new hot area of town that draws a lot of people.

It really only takes apartments about 10 years of neglect before they start to look crummy, can't demand high rents, and the cycle just kind of keeps making them crummier as they can't generate enough money to keep maintained properly. I don't know if it could happen here more than anywhere else. Just know it can happen anywhere.

I think it would take a really long time for it to get "bad" again. But it could easily slip into a much more "middle class" area. That's not necessarily a bad thing.
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Old 01-08-2019, 06:56 PM
 
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There’s also so much room available in O4W to put in nicer housing then the existing new housing stock will likely be future regular housing. There’s entire blocks and major street corners with ample room for thousands of new residents.
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Old 01-08-2019, 07:40 PM
bu2
 
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Neighborhoods tend to have life cycles. They go up and down.

Druid Hills is on at least its 3rd cycle. It was a place for milionaires when it was built. It declined in the 30s and had a lot of vacant mansions and mansions turned into apartments. After the war it boomed again, but by the 90s it was emptying out of children. Its never been bad, but its got a lot of large houses. It has fluctuated economically.

What tends to happen is neighborhoods age, the housing stock gets old and unfashionable and children move out and the owners have difficulty updating and maintaining their property. Eventually they move and if things go well, an energetic group comes in and updates the area.
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Old 01-08-2019, 07:41 PM
bu2
 
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The O4W seems to be early in an uptick in their life cycle, so a decline is likely well into the future.
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Old 01-08-2019, 08:58 PM
 
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A decline is not inevitable. Americans have started to return to cities as they are doing in other countries - it's unlikely people will decide again to return to the suburbs and be far away from amenities and have to commute to work. It's possible that O4W and other intown neighborhoods will simply continue to increaww in value. In fact, the next likely decline will be in the currently desirable suburbs as people keep heading into cities and lower income residents move out to the suburbs.
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Old 01-09-2019, 10:29 AM
bu2
 
23,907 posts, read 14,695,847 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall View Post
A decline is not inevitable. Americans have started to return to cities as they are doing in other countries - it's unlikely people will decide again to return to the suburbs and be far away from amenities and have to commute to work. It's possible that O4W and other intown neighborhoods will simply continue to increaww in value. In fact, the next likely decline will be in the currently desirable suburbs as people keep heading into cities and lower income residents move out to the suburbs.
That's a false narrative. Suburbs are still growing faster than the inner city.
What's happening now is that those inner suburbs are aging and declining socio-economically. Eventually they will probably recover and the next tier of suburbs will age and decline.

I do agree a decline is not inevitable. But when you've got a lot of multi-family or small houses, its likely at some point.
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Old 01-09-2019, 11:33 AM
 
758 posts, read 1,096,200 times
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The overall landscape of apartments in the Atlanta area is that after 10 years or so, they struggle to maintain the rent, leading to the owners to not keeping up the property, and as a result, the rents fall further.


A couple of examples of this phenomenon is the Peachtree Hills area of Buckhead and the numerous older apartments lining Roswell Rd. in Sandy Springs (both inside and outside of 285). Peachtree Hills had several older apartment complexes on its eastern edge which had not aged well and therefore, the owners could not demand high rents from possible tenants. Finally, other developers realized that this was a prime location and bought the properties and redeveloped them for higher end uses. This was especially true of the area just east of there along Musgrove Dr. near Lindbergh Center. There were several blocks of older low rent apartments and a similar pattern happened where a developer realized the potential of the location, purchased them, bulldozed them and built new high rent apartments.


Sandy Springs is a little different as it is not as close in, so some of its older apartments have been redeveloped (to higher end properties) while many others have not. It is doubtful that all of them will be redeveloped any time soon as several thousand new apartments have just come on line along Roswell Rd. just north of 285. Therefore, many of the older lower rent complexes will most likely be around for the time being.


Back to the OP, looking over the history of Atlanta, there is a fairly good chance that as the large supply of apartments in the O4W area age and the overall economy goes through an eventual recession, some property owners may be forced to lower their rents and thus begin the cycle again. If this can happen in Peachtree Hills in Buckhead, it can happen anywhere in the area.
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Old 01-09-2019, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Georgia
4,209 posts, read 4,714,070 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David1502 View Post
The overall landscape of apartments in the Atlanta area is that after 10 years or so, they struggle to maintain the rent, leading to the owners to not keeping up the property, and as a result, the rents fall further.


A couple of examples of this phenomenon is the Peachtree Hills area of Buckhead and the numerous older apartments lining Roswell Rd. in Sandy Springs (both inside and outside of 285). Peachtree Hills had several older apartment complexes on its eastern edge which had not aged well and therefore, the owners could not demand high rents from possible tenants. Finally, other developers realized that this was a prime location and bought the properties and redeveloped them for higher end uses. This was especially true of the area just east of there along Musgrove Dr. near Lindbergh Center. There were several blocks of older low rent apartments and a similar pattern happened where a developer realized the potential of the location, purchased them, bulldozed them and built new high rent apartments.


Sandy Springs is a little different as it is not as close in, so some of its older apartments have been redeveloped (to higher end properties) while many others have not. It is doubtful that all of them will be redeveloped any time soon as several thousand new apartments have just come on line along Roswell Rd. just north of 285. Therefore, many of the older lower rent complexes will most likely be around for the time being.


Back to the OP, looking over the history of Atlanta, there is a fairly good chance that as the large supply of apartments in the O4W area age and the overall economy goes through an eventual recession, some property owners may be forced to lower their rents and thus begin the cycle again. If this can happen in Peachtree Hills in Buckhead, it can happen anywhere in the area.
So what you're saying is that one day we'll actually be able to afford the thousands of "luxury" units that are being built currently?
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Old 01-09-2019, 01:39 PM
 
9,008 posts, read 13,992,840 times
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Quote:
So what you're saying is that one day we'll actually be able to afford the thousands of "luxury" units that are being built currently?
Probably. They just won't be so luxury anymore.

Almost every apartment advertises as "luxury" when it first opens. But since there are no luxury police out there, ANY apartment can advertise that way.
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