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Old 03-02-2019, 07:17 AM
 
8,302 posts, read 5,636,924 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
Yes, but unlike Sears, which completely failed to invest in its own stores, JC Penney seems at least partially invested in saving itself by improving its core business instead of playing financial games.
The question is whether or not it's too late for JCPenney to save itself from the inevitable, especially with the possibility of a recession happening soon and e-commerce such as Amazon really beginning to take off as a juggernaut.

If you think so, you're a lot more optimistic than I am (along with many economists).

But even if they do manage to save themselves, I have no doubt they will only be a shell of their former selves and it's still going to mean a ton of pain for low density/low income/low growth places where they overexpanded during the 80s - 2000s credit/real estate binge.
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Old 03-02-2019, 07:25 AM
 
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I'm not optimistic for JC Penney because they started trying to turn around too late after many failed attempts.

What I am saying, though, is that Amazon is only killing the retailers that were weak and needed to be weeded out anyway (of which JC Penney is likely one). Even if there was no Amazon, JCP probably would not survive.

All retailers have to do in order to survive Amazon is create an experience that isn't so miserable that waiting two or more days for your item to arrive in the mail is preferable to dealing with your store. That's something smart retailers are already doing.

I get livid when I see all the headlines of Amazon killing this or that. Nope, all Amazon did was provide an alternative that people desperately needed. Kind of like Uber, which could not have possibly killed the taxi industry if it had been in any way well operated.
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Old 03-02-2019, 07:38 AM
 
8,302 posts, read 5,636,924 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
I'm not optimistic for JC Penney because they started trying to turn around too late after many failed attempts.

What I am saying, though, is that Amazon is only killing the retailers that were weak and needed to be weeded out anyway (of which JC Penney is likely one). Even if there was no Amazon, JCP probably would not survive.

All retailers have to do in order to survive Amazon is create an experience that isn't so miserable that waiting two or more days for your item to arrive in the mail is preferable to dealing with your store. That's something smart retailers are already doing.

I get livid when I see all the headlines of Amazon killing this or that. Nope, all Amazon did was provide an alternative that people desperately needed. Kind of like Uber, which could not have possibly killed the taxi industry if it had been in any way well operated.
That describes the vast majority of retailers though, IMO.

The only ones prospering are deep discount stores that cater to poor people (regardless of income, people will always need cheap food, toiletries, and the most basic of clothing items), and those that offer extremely niche products (I.E. car dealers).

Beyond that, most of the brick & mortar retailers that cater to working/middle class consumers are struggling or, at best, are just barely making a profit.
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Old 03-02-2019, 07:56 AM
 
31,996 posts, read 36,572,943 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
I'm not optimistic for JC Penney because they started trying to turn around too late after many failed attempts.

What I am saying, though, is that Amazon is only killing the retailers that were weak and needed to be weeded out anyway (of which JC Penney is likely one). Even if there was no Amazon, JCP probably would not survive.

All retailers have to do in order to survive Amazon is create an experience that isn't so miserable that waiting two or more days for your item to arrive in the mail is preferable to dealing with your store. That's something smart retailers are already doing.

I get livid when I see all the headlines of Amazon killing this or that. Nope, all Amazon did was provide an alternative that people desperately needed. Kind of like Uber, which could not have possibly killed the taxi industry if it had been in any way well operated.
Great points, ATLTJL. As I recall, online retail is still only about 10% of retail sales.

Likewise with the ride-hailing services vs. traditional taxis. The latter just failed to adapt and to provide easy, reliable and predictable scheduling.
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Old 03-02-2019, 07:58 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
I've thought a lot about this. Just as Millennials said, "why are we living in the boring suburbs when we can go revitalize the cities that were popular a generation or two ago?" an upcoming generation might say, "why are we walking in the heat, cold and rain to get from store to store? You know, our great grandparents had a much more elegant solution to this."
I've thought about this as well. I believe that this style mall originated in Southern California where outdoor shopping makes more sense than indoor when you don't have to worry about weather 9 months out of the year nor even most of the other three months. It doesn't make as much sense in other areas and it's been fascinating to watch it be adopted nonetheless.

Malls like this need a significant housing component though. Now more than ever.
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Old 03-02-2019, 08:04 AM
 
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Beyond that, most of the brick & mortar retailers that cater to working/middle class consumers are struggling or, at best, are just barely making a profit.
Then they need to figure out what they're doing wrong and why their customers are abandoning them.

This thread isn't about the overall health of retail, but I'm going to use my powers of deductive reasoning and formulate a hypothesis that working/middle class consumers are the ones with the LEAST amount of time to waste. They don't mind waiting 2 days for an item to arrive if it keeps them out of stores where they have to hunt down products and then wait in line to check out.

I bet most of these stores could recapture an awful lot of what they are losing to Amazon by building great websites that allow people to find what they need online, pay for it there, and then simply pick it up at the store in a few minutes without waiting. Even if this means storing it in a locker and providing them a code to retrieve it. I think retailers can win a lot of customers doing this, and even not have to compete with Amazon on price (most people will pay 5-10% more for the ability to go pick it up now vs. wait for the mail -- but only if it's a no-hassle experience).

BUT -- how many retailers actually do this? That is why I say, they are failing because they aren't competing well. So just maybe... it's the fate they deserve. (incidentally, Walmart is adapting well. I've used the giant product vending machine for online orders, and it's great, though it still needs some work).

But don't worry. Some of them will figure it out. And they will do just fine. As for the rest... see ya.

PS - I'll say the same thing for reverse logistics. Amazon rocks because if you get a broken or wrong item, just print out a return label and drop it off. ALL retailers sill have a horrible return procedure, which keeps some people from buying risky items from them. They need to institute quick return drop-offs, where you just drop off your item with your receipt taped to it and you get a credit back. Or whatever, I'm not a retail genius, that's just one idea...I'm sure the people who get paid big bucks could come up with some better solution if they only understood what the real problem is.
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Old 03-02-2019, 08:43 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
Then they need to figure out what they're doing wrong and why their customers are abandoning them...
It's not even that they're doing anything wrong.

One of the reasons why Amazon is so successful is because they, until recently, didn't have to incur the expense of operating a ton of brick and mortar retailers. They would pass along these savings to customers in the form of deeper discounts.

Brick & mortar retailers have to pay for the cost to light/heat these stores, staff them, and not to mention the exorbent cost of rent that landlords are charging, so they'll never be able to compete with Amazon on price.

Best Buy price matches Amazon, but the trick is they sublease their store space to the big tech companies to make up for that loss revenue. Furthermore, they have virtually no competition when it comes to electronics, since they all went bankrupt. That can't necessarily be replicated with the Gaps, Foot Lockers or Victoria's Secrets. And even Best Buy continues to close stores via. lease expirations.

Another issue is that working/middle class consumers are simply cash strapped. People are buying fewer big-ticket items in general post-recession because of the lack of wage growth and the near-historic levels of debt they have (thus less disposable income). And when they do splurge on a big-ticket purchase, they're going to seek out the lowest cost possible (which is Amazon for the reasons stated above).

I wouldn't frame it necessarily as "Amazon is killing retailers," but they are certainly playing a major role in changing its landscape, a landscape many can't possibly compete in which will lead to a ton of abandoned retail space, loss jobs and loss tax revenue across the country.
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Old 03-02-2019, 11:20 AM
 
10,348 posts, read 11,357,816 times
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Originally Posted by 2Easy View Post
I've thought about this as well. I believe that this style mall originated in Southern California where outdoor shopping makes more sense than indoor when you don't have to worry about weather 9 months out of the year nor even most of the other three months. It doesn't make as much sense in other areas and it's been fascinating to watch it be adopted nonetheless.

Malls like this need a significant housing component though. Now more than ever.
A major motivating factor in the continued spread of outdoor 'lifestyle centers' from Sun Belt areas like Southern California, Texas, Florida, etc., to other parts of the country with much more changeable and adverse weather patterns (particularly during the winter months when it is cold, but also during other parts of the year when it may rain a lot) is that property owners do not have to pay to heat and cool the common areas of a structure like they have to do with traditional enclosed shopping malls.

Not having to pay to heat and cool the common areas of an enclosed structure during the cold/cool weather months and hot/warm weather months, respectively, is a massive financial savings to retail development owners during an era where the physical footprint of bricks-and-mortar retail is smaller than in the past and continues to shrink at a seemingly astonishing rate.
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Old 03-02-2019, 03:26 PM
 
1,581 posts, read 2,174,199 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
Then they need to figure out what they're doing wrong and why their customers are abandoning them.

This thread isn't about the overall health of retail, but I'm going to use my powers of deductive reasoning and formulate a hypothesis that working/middle class consumers are the ones with the LEAST amount of time to waste. They don't mind waiting 2 days for an item to arrive if it keeps them out of stores where they have to hunt down products and then wait in line to check out.

I bet most of these stores could recapture an awful lot of what they are losing to Amazon by building great websites that allow people to find what they need online, pay for it there, and then simply pick it up at the store in a few minutes without waiting. Even if this means storing it in a locker and providing them a code to retrieve it. I think retailers can win a lot of customers doing this, and even not have to compete with Amazon on price (most people will pay 5-10% more for the ability to go pick it up now vs. wait for the mail -- but only if it's a no-hassle experience).


The point about time is an important one related to the thread topic. Think about the time investment and (lack of) convenience associated with just getting to the mall, walking across a huge parking lot and navigating a millions square foot property. Is it any wonder that consumers are moving toward any alternative to this?
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Old 03-04-2019, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
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Oh Lord, going to the mall is not that bad. The thing is many of these malls and retailers fail to make an experience. Stores are still building locations but they have to provide an experience and be astechticaly pleasing to the eye. Lenox continues to re-arrange tenants to get on the luxury wing and make the stores larger and more glam...Phipps clearly is following. And rumor has it Lenox is set for another remodel that Simon will announce soon.

As for MOG. Access to that mall is horrible and always has been. That roundabout from 85 to Buford Drive is horrible, and exiting back on to 85–S from the mall is trash. They still only have 1 merge lane with trucks bearing down on you going 85 on 85!!! That mall I believe opened when I was in like 7th grade. Crazy. But it has always been larger than it could handle since day 1. To me they have lost the posh factor it somewhat had and is now totally suburban. It`s not going anywhere though. Northern burbs support that mall and the Hall county and beyond crowd. But now if you notice there are quite some vacancies and they have gyms and random tenants just to fill space.

In general it`s just bad planning and Gwinnett continues to plan very bad accepting whatever proposals come to their desk. I wish sometimes they’d be more picky and choosy like Cobb. That Gwinnett stadium plan they have on 20. FAIL. And that Airiston project they have planned for MOG. FAIL. They need to focus on infill, redevelopment and transportation of what they have than building all these developments.

The next mall we need to be talking about is Sugarloaf Mills because I know that mall is trying to hang on. I hope Simon is planning to do something with that mall, with Revel in the foreground. Just too much empty storefronts and waaaaaaaay too much parking. Gorgeous area though.....
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