Is The Atlanta (ITP) Boom Over? (Roswell, Marietta: 2013, rent, house prices)

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by mjtinmemphis

Are the suburbs doing that great? I am see a major apocalypse in malls all over the country. Not to mention suburban style chain restaurants and movie theaters.

I think cities will still attract city people. After the pandemic is over, people will still crave the sense of community that cities bring. I do think it may take some time as long cities make adjustments in how they build and brand themselves. No one will want to pay $899k for a 300 square foot loft. (I know I am exaggerating a bit)

The affluent suburbs are fine, middle class suburbs are struggling.

Case in point the suburbs between 85 to 400 are booming with new places opening despite the pandemic. In my area alone with have had 5 new places open since July. A lot of this was planned long before Covid though.

A large % of white collar professionals will never return to the office full time, how many of the people who work in midtown chose a loft over a 3500 square foot house in Alpharetta due to the commute?

[CleverOne]

Originally Posted by mjtinmemphis

Are the suburbs doing that great? I am see a major apocalypse in malls all over the country. Not to mention suburban style chain restaurants and movie theaters.

I think cities will still attract city people. After the pandemic is over, people will still crave the sense of community that cities bring. I do think it may take some time as long cities make adjustments in how they build and brand themselves. No one will want to pay $899k for a 300 square foot loft. (I know I am exaggerating a bit)

Suburbs are densifying and becoming more urban.
Especially the more affluent ones.

The less affluent ones have some struggles . Clayton where I currently live is actually doing fine. Especially since MARTA has entered the county.
Its still growing and incomes have been rising and crime has decreased.

I think Southlake Mall was once in danger like many malls but many of its stores are among the top financially

[BobbyJayATL]

Originally Posted by CleverOne

Suburbs are densifying and becoming more urban.

The flip side of this is true too, though.

The city/close in/ITP areas are becoming more suburban.

Someone living in Midtown doesn't have to drive to Cobb or Gwinnett to find all the trappings of suburbia any more - Target, Home Depot, Best Buy, a full sized grocery store - all can be had in basically all corners of ITP.

We've reached the point where you could look at plans for a new development, and you'd have no idea where it's going - could be virgin land in Forsyth or Cherokee Counties, or could be brownfield in SW Atlanta a block from the path of the Beltline.

Which in my mind should set off alarm bells for those in Atlanta.

As alluded a lot of the draw of intown living in Atlanta is commute. There's some mental draw - "the city is where it's at". Especially for transplants. But for locals, it becomes clear lifestyle doesn't have to be much different.

So why take on the negatives - housing prices, schools, taxes - if the major positive is if not gone, minimized?

[bryantm3]

^ this is right on target. I think Atlantans are getting what NYers have been warning for years about gentrification. It didn’t really hit hard until the past 7-8 years, I think a lot of people ITP got “shiny object syndrome” about all of the new development and ignored the downsides...

For the people moving in, it’s no big change, it’s what they’ve gotten used to gradually since the 70s. But for those who have been here a long time, it’s like 50 years happened all at once. It’s become jarringly apparent how corporate consolidation, outsourcing, the loss of blue collar industries and the 24/7 media cycle have vastly changed the American economy. You used to be able to come into the city and escape all of that for a little while, but not any more. The old city is gone.

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by CleverOne

Suburbs are densifying and becoming more urban.
Especially the more affluent ones.

The less affluent ones have some struggles . Clayton where I currently live is actually doing fine. Especially since MARTA has entered the county.
Its still growing and incomes have been rising and crime has decreased.

I think Southlake Mall was once in danger like many malls but many of its stores are among the top financially

I want to comment on new subdivisions under $800k becoming more urban. I looked at several new homes in my search for a place last year. One take away from looking at 3 homes around $600k new build, all of the lots sucked, I mean you are *******s to elbows using a military term, next to your neighbor, like 20 feet separating houses. The older subdivisions in Cumming where I am are all on 1/2 to acre lots, the newer ones are 1/8 acre. So density is definitely increasing as developers look at maximizing profits. One house I looked at for $650k, 3500 square feet, drop dead beautiful inside, like HGTV nice. Go outside & I can see 8 neighbors houses from the deck with no trees & the back yard was the size of a postage stamp, other house there was no backyard as it backed up to Old Atlanta road and your backyard was a cliff. The sales lady said they had nice private lots for an additional $100k.

[AtlJan]

Originally Posted by BobbyJayATL

The flip side of this is true too, though.

The city/close in/ITP areas are becoming more suburban.

Someone living in Midtown doesn't have to drive to Cobb or Gwinnett to find all the trappings of suburbia any more - Target, Home Depot, Best Buy, a full sized grocery store - all can be had in basically all corners of ITP.

We've reached the point where you could look at plans for a new development, and you'd have no idea where it's going - could be virgin land in Forsyth or Cherokee Counties, or could be brownfield in SW Atlanta a block from the path of the Beltline.

Which in my mind should set off alarm bells for those in Atlanta.

As alluded a lot of the draw of intown living in Atlanta is commute. There's some mental draw - "the city is where it's at". Especially for transplants. But for locals, it becomes clear lifestyle doesn't have to be much different.

So why take on the negatives - housing prices, schools, taxes - if the major positive is if not gone, minimized?

^^^ This. I live in Buckhead where most of family has been for 100 years. My kids now ask me to drive them to Avalon to hang out. Can't blame them. So I'm paying these taxes for these schools for this house. And paying neighborhood security in addition. Then driving to Alpharetta to hang out. It's starting to make me rethink!

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by AtlJan

^^^ This. I live in Buckhead where most of family has been for 100 years. My kids now ask me to drive them to Avalon to hang out. Can't blame them. So I'm paying these taxes for these schools for this house. And paying neighborhood security in addition. Then driving to Alpharetta to hang out. It's starting to make me rethink!

I haven't been to Avalon yet was thinking of the wife and I going up there this weekend to check it out.

[BobbyJayATL]

Originally Posted by AtlJan

^^^ This. I live in Buckhead where most of family has been for 100 years. My kids now ask me to drive them to Avalon to hang out. Can't blame them. So I'm paying these taxes for these schools for this house. And paying neighborhood security in addition. Then driving to Alpharetta to hang out. It's starting to make me rethink!

My spouse and I were talking about this yesterday; we moved back to metro ATL recently after years away, and at least theoretically are focusing our home search in town (in a midtown rental right now).

But with the number of friends and family scattered about the metro (old high school and college friends we've reconnected with mostly), we're maybe recalibrating.

I guess that said, I do see us probably settling in town; we are in jobs/fields that I don't see either (a) going full remote (or even significantly remote), or (b) being in the suburbs/exurbs versus in town, for various reasons.

Another thought I'd had is that I see traffic improvements for a suburbs to city commute being a wash over a 5 year window and then back to getting worse, but reverse commutes getting better; sure, more people working from home, but between continued growth and everyone going back out to the suburbs to live, I think the times of 45 minutes from Alpharetta to downtown in rush hour are not long for this world.

And to friends/family being scattered about the metro, it does get back to Atlanta's origins as a transportation hub; from midtown, I can basically be anywhere in the entire ATL MSA in an hour as long as it's not evening rush hour.

If I were going to guess, we'll end up focusing on the north buckhead/ITP Sandy Springs area (maybe the latter to avoid some of the tax/lack of proper policing issues).

[AtlJan]

Originally Posted by BobbyJayATL

My spouse and I were talking about this yesterday; we moved back to metro ATL recently after years away, and at least theoretically are focusing our home search in town (in a midtown rental right now).

But with the number of friends and family scattered about the metro (old high school and college friends we've reconnected with mostly), we're maybe recalibrating.

I guess that said, I do see us probably settling in town; we are in jobs/fields that I don't see either (a) going full remote (or even significantly remote), or (b) being in the suburbs/exurbs versus in town, for various reasons.

Another thought I'd had is that I see traffic improvements for a suburbs to city commute being a wash over a 5 year window and then back to getting worse, but reverse commutes getting better; sure, more people working from home, but between continued growth and everyone going back out to the suburbs to live, I think the times of 45 minutes from Alpharetta to downtown in rush hour are not long for this world.

And to friends/family being scattered about the metro, it does get back to Atlanta's origins as a transportation hub; from midtown, I can basically be anywhere in the entire ATL MSA in an hour as long as it's not evening rush hour.

If I were going to guess, we'll end up focusing on the north buckhead/ITP Sandy Springs area (maybe the latter to avoid some of the tax/lack of proper policing issues).

You can't beat Buckhead/ITP Sandy Springs for convenience, that is for sure. I used to live in Vinings and getting to Brookhaven or areas north on 400 or 85 felt like a serious road trip.

[Mutiny77]

Originally Posted by BobbyJayATL

The city/close in/ITP areas are becoming more suburban.

Someone living in Midtown doesn't have to drive to Cobb or Gwinnett to find all the trappings of suburbia any more - Target, Home Depot, Best Buy, a full sized grocery store - all can be had in basically all corners of ITP.

But those retailers had antecedents in the urban core: Davison's, Woolworth's, Regenstein's, Rich's, etc., and those were certainly the big boxes of their day. Even the modern trappings of suburbia aren't so new; that started with the mammoth Sears building (now PCM) which was located in what was not considered to be the urban core in the 1920s.

We've reached the point where you could look at plans for a new development, and you'd have no idea where it's going - could be virgin land in Forsyth or Cherokee Counties, or could be brownfield in SW Atlanta a block from the path of the Beltline.

Which in my mind should set off alarm bells for those in Atlanta.

As alluded a lot of the draw of intown living in Atlanta is commute. There's some mental draw - "the city is where it's at". Especially for transplants. But for locals, it becomes clear lifestyle doesn't have to be much different.

So why take on the negatives - housing prices, schools, taxes - if the major positive is if not gone, minimized?

What's the "major positive" you're referring to? A lack of amenities? I'm not sure if I'm following you. I know there's a proliferation of chains today and less mom-and-pop retailers, but the urban lifestyle still has an advantage in terms of overall built form and connectivity. Even with OTP suburbs becoming more walkable, it's still more of an "internal" walkability surrounded by wide thoroughfares full of speeding vehicles often without sidewalks. The pedestrian experience along Peachtree or Ponce is simply not the same as that along Cobb Pkwy or Roswell Rd.